Estimation of HIV Transmission Dynamics Using Genetic Sequences of Virus

利用病毒基因序列估计 HIV 传播动态

• 批准号: 8089456
• 负责人: Erik McCullough Volz
• 金额: $ 13.03万
• 依托单位: UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN AT ANN ARBOR
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2010
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2010-07-01 至 2014-06-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/8089456
• 关键词: Acute; Address; Area; Award; Behavior; Behavioral; Biological; Chronic; Cohort Studies; Collaborations; Communicable Diseases; Communities; Community Health; Complex; Couples; Data; Data Set; Data Sources; Databases; Development; Dimensions; Drug resistance; Epidemic; Epidemiologist; Epidemiology; Evolution; Faculty; Fingerprint; Genetic; HIV; HIV Infections; Heterogeneity; Immunology; Individual; Infection; Influenza; Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype; Intervention; Link; Mentors; Methods; Michigan; Microbiology; Modeling; Newly Diagnosed; Outcome; Pathology; Patient Self-Report; Pattern; Phylogenetic Analysis; Phylogeny; Population; Postdoctoral Fellow; Public Health Schools; Publishing; Records; Reproduction; Research; Research Personnel; Research Support; Risk; Risk Behaviors; Sampling; Scientist; Sexually Transmitted Diseases; Signal Transduction; Source; Staging; Structure; Surveillance Program; Surveys; System; Testing; Time; Training; Training Programs; Trees; Universities; Unsafe Sex; Ursidae Family; Viral; Viral Load result; Virus; Work; base; career; career development; design; epidemiological model; experience; infectious disease model; intravenous drug use; mathematical model; metropolitan; novel; pandemic disease; public health relevance; rapid diagnosis; resistance mutation; skills; stem; surveillance data; theories; tool; transmission process; virus genetics

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): This proposal describes a four year career development and training plan for Erik Volz, an Assistant Research Scientist in the Department of Epidemiology at the University of Michigan-Ann Arbor. Training will aid with the development of a career in Epidemiology with a focus on infectious diseases, especially HIV and other sexually transmitted infections. The training program will allow Dr. Volz to acquire skills in areas necessary for expertise in the field of HIV epidemiology while conducting substantial research in areas where he already has established a strong publishing record. Dr. Volz will be mentored by a team of three faculty with experience ranging from complex systems modeling of infectious diseases to the microbiology and pathology of HIV infection and the evolution of viruses. The School of Public Health at the University of Michigan is an excellent venue for junior faculty seeking to develop a career as an independent investigator. A large community of research faculty and postdoctoral fellows are available as potential collaborators and as an audience for work in progress. Research supported by this award will concern the use of novel sources of HIV genetic data for fitting models of the HIV epidemic. The union of mathematical epidemiology, immunology and phylogenetics has been dubbed "phylodynamics", and Dr. Volz has made recent progress on the theory necessary to unify traditional models of infectious disease epidemics with the evolution of HIV described by phylogenetic trees. The potential of phylodynamic methods was demonstrated recently as the first estimates of the fundamental reproduction number, R0, for pandemic H1N1 came from the analysis of several dozen influenza genetic sequences, not from traditional epidemiological surveillance data. Dr. Volz hopes to refine these methods and develop them into a practical tool for epidemiologists engaging in HIV surveillance. A collaboration will be established with the Michigan Department of Community Health to analyze a database of several thousand HIV sequences collected from newly diagnosed individuals since 2004. By applying phylodynamic models to this large set of sequences, Dr. Volz will attempt to answer longstanding questions about the transmission patterns of HIV. This research will generate novel estimates of R0, the temporal distribution of transmissions post-infection, the fraction of transmissions that happen during acute and early HIV infection, demographic determinants of infection and transmission risk, and behavioral heterogeneity and sexual network structure. Public Health Relevance: Stemming the HIV pandemic requires effective surveillance, frequent testing, and rapid diagnosis of new infections. An under-utilized source of data comes from the virus itself. The genetic sequence of virus bears the fingerprint of epidemiological dynamics, and the objective of this proposal is to characterize the distribution and determinants of HIV transmission using HIV sequences collected for routine drug-resistance testing.

描述（由申请人提供）：该提案描述了密歇根大学 - 安阿伯大学流行病学系助理研究科学家Erik Volz的四年职业发展和培训计划。培训将有助于发展流行病学职业，重点是传染病，尤其是艾滋病毒和其他性传播感染。 该培训计划将使沃尔兹博士能够在艾滋病毒流行病学领域所必需的专业知识领域获得技能，同时在他已经建立了强大的出版记录的领域进行大量研究。沃尔兹博士将由三个教师团队进行指导，其经验从传染病的复杂系统建模到艾滋病毒感染的微生物学和病理学以及病毒的演变。密歇根大学公共卫生学院是初级教师寻求发展独立研究员职业的绝佳场所。大量的研究教师和博士后研究员可以作为潜在的合作者和正在进行的工作受众提供。 该奖项支持的研究将涉及使用新型HIV遗传数据来拟合HIV流行模型的新来源。数学流行病学，免疫学和系统发育学的结合已被称为“系统动力学”，沃尔兹博士在统一传统的传统疾病模型流行病模型的理论上取得了最新进展，并由系统发育树描述的HIV演变。系统动力学方法的潜力最近被证明是大流行H1N1的基本繁殖数R0的首次估计来自对几十个流感遗传序列的分析，而不是来自传统的流行病学监测数据。沃尔兹博士希望完善这些方法，并将它们发展为一个实用的工具，以使参与艾滋病毒监测的流行病学家。自2004年以来，将与密歇根州社区健康部建立合作，以分析从新诊断的个人收集的数千名HIV序列的数据库。通过将系统动力学模型应用于这一大序列，沃​​尔兹博士将尝试回答有关HIV传播模式的长期问题。这项研究将产生R0的新估计，感染后传播的时间分布，急性和早期HIV感染期间发生的传播的比例，感染和传播风险的人口统计学决定因素以及行为异质性和性网络结构。 公共卫生相关性：阻止HIV大流行需要有效的监测，频繁测试和快速诊断新感染。未充分利用的数据来源来自病毒本身。病毒的遗传序列具有流行病学动力学的指纹，该提案的目的是使用收集的HIV序列来表征HIV传播的分布和决定因素，以进行常规的药物耐药性测试。