HOUSING PRICE RISK, HOME OWNERSHIP, AND WEALTH

房价风险、房屋所有权和财富

• 批准号: 7644989
• 负责人: James Patrick Smith
• 金额: $ 9.42万
• 依托单位: RAND CORPORATION
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 至
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/7644989
• 关键词: Address; Affect; Age; Americas; Area; Canada; Capital; Child; Consumption; Country; Data; Development; Employment; Europe; European; Face; Funding; Germany; HGS gene; Health; Home environment; Household; Housing; Income; Individual; Institutes; Institution; Investments; Italy; Left; Life; Life Cycle Stages; London; Marketing; Modeling; Ownership; Paper; Participant; Pattern; Price; Principal Investigator; Process; Productivity; Publishing; Range; Rate; Research; Retirement; Risk; Running; Savings; Spain; Staging; Surveys; Testing; Theoretical model; Universities; Variant; Widowhood; Work; Writing; college; falls; innovation; theories

In this project, we will test the effects of housing price risk on housing choice and wealth accumulation. Our model predicts that people who live in areas or countries with higher housing price risk should own their first home at a younger age, should live in larger homes, should have less steep housing consumption profiles, and should hold less equity in risky assets such as stocks. We will extend this model to incorporate two additional types of important risks individuals face-- income risk, which is concentrated in the younger phrases of the life cycle; and health risk, which is more relevant at older ages. We will also extend our model into the older stages of the life cycle, so that we can examine both theoretically and empirically whether people are willing to downsize to fund their retirement consumption and how this decision is affected by volatile house prices. Finally, we will extend our work to four additional countries--Spain, Italy, Germany, and Canada--that vary considerably in patterns of home ownership and in housing price risk. We will continue to investigate the impact of capital gains in stocks and housing on consumption and savings. Using data from the US and UK, we will be particularly concerned with whether these 'wealth effects' on consumption and savings varied across different types of assets and the extent to which these estimated effects can explain the long-term swing in household savings rates.

在这个项目中，我们将测试住房价格风险对住房选择和财富积累的影响。我们的模型预测，生活在住房价格风险较高的地区或国家的人们应在年轻时拥有自己的第一个房屋，应居住在较大的房屋中，应该拥有较陡峭的住房消费概况，并且在诸如股票等风险资产的股本中应该持有较少的股权。我们将扩展该模型，以纳入个人面临的另外两种重要类型的重要风险 - 收入风险，这集中在生命周期的年轻短语中；和健康风险，在老年时代更为相关。我们还将将模型扩展到生命周期的较旧阶段，以便我们可以在理论上和经验上研究人们是否愿意缩减资金来资助退休消费以及该决定如何受房屋价格的影响。最后，我们将把我们的工作扩展到另外四个国家 - 西班牙，意大利，德国和加拿大 - 房屋模式的差异很大 所有权和住房价格风险。我们将继续调查资本收益对股票和住房对消费和储蓄的影响。使用来自美国和英国的数据，我们将特别关心这些对消费和储蓄的“财富影响”是否在不同类型的资产中有所不同，以及这些估计的影响可以解释家庭储蓄率的长期摇摆。