Methods and Applications for Population-based Incidence and Mortality Statistics

基于人群的发病率和死亡率统计的方法和应用

• 批准号: 7594033
• 负责人: Gregg Dinse
• 金额: $ 12.92万
• 依托单位: NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH SCIENCES
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 至
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/7594033
• 关键词: Accounting; Age; Area; Arsenic; Attention; Birth; Body mass index; Calendar; Categories; Cohort Analysis; Cohort Effect; County; Data; Data Analyses; Databases; Demographic Factors; Diffuse Lymphoma; Exposure to; Gender; Goals; Idaho; Incidence; International; Journals; Malignant Neoplasms; Malignant neoplasm of kidney; Malignant neoplasm of liver; Malignant neoplasm of lung; Malignant neoplasm of urinary bladder; Manuscripts; Medical Surveillance; Methods; Modeling; National Cancer Institute; Non-Hodgkin' s Lymphoma; Pattern; Pennsylvania; Population; Preparation; Race; Range; Rate; Registries; Regression Analysis; Relative (related person); Renal carcinoma; Research; Research Personnel; SEER Program; Screening procedure; Smoking; Smoking History; Source; Statistical Methods; Techniques; Time; Tobacco smoking; United States; Universities; Woman; Work; age group; base; cohort; ground water; human data; men; mortality; neoplasm registry; statistics; trend

In the past year, my research on this project was concentrated in three areas: (1) incidence and mortality analyses of cancer unrelated to smoking or screening, (2) comparisons of statewide and national data on the incidence of non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (NHL), and (3) ecologic assessment of the effect of arsenic in ground water on cancer incidence. Research in these areas involved APC analyses, joinpoint analyses, and spatial analyses. This work is collaborative with researchers at the University of Pittsburgh. The three areas of research are described in more detail below. Area 1: We studied temporal patterns of cancer incidence and mortality rates in the United States based on data from the SEER program. The incidence data were from 1975-2004 and the mortality data were from 1970-2004. We used APC models to investigate the effects of age group, time period, and birth cohort on the rates of cancer in three categories: cancers related to tobacco smoking, cancers detectable by screening, and all other cancers. Our primary focus was on the last category, which corresponds to cancers whose temporal patterns should not be easily explained by changes related to tobacco smoking or screening techniques. Within this last category, we paid particular attention to NHL. Our APC model was parameterized in terms of long-range trends and deviations from those trend lines. The deviations from linearity can be uniquely attributed to age, period, or cohort effects, but the slopes of the trend lines cannot. The long-range trends were summarized in terms of combined period and cohort effects, for which the corresponding slope can be uniquely estimated. Overall, for cancer unrelated to smoking or screening, incidence rates increased and mortality rates decreased among black and white men and women. In fact, long-range trends in NHL were positive for both incidence and mortality rates. Deviations from linearity were significant, however, for cancers unrelated to smoking or screening in general and for NHL in particular. Thus, the long-range trends do not tell the whole story with respect to the temporal effects on these cancer patterns. A manuscript is in preparation and should be ready to submit to a scientific journal in the next month or two. Area 2: We investigated the incidence of NHL in greater detail. Specifically, we studied the effects of both temporal and demographic factors on NHL incidence rates. Also, we used data from both the SEER registry and the Pennsylvania Cancer Registry (PCR), which is not part of the SEER program. We employed APC and joinpoint models to analyze the data. Relative to the APC analysis, the joinpoint analysis averages over age groups and does not account for cohort effects, but it can accommodate multiple trend lines that are joined at arbitrary points along the calendar year (period) scale. The results from the national and statewide registries, as well as from the APC and joinpoint analyses, were compared and contrasted. Based on data from 1985 to 2004, the SEER and PCR results were fairly similar with respect to temporal patterns of NHL incidence. According to both the APC and joinpoint analyses, the incidence of NHL increased between 1985 and 2004 among black and white men and women, both nationally and in Pennsylvania. Diffuse lymphoma appeared to be the most important component of this increase. In Pennsylvania, NHL incidence was higher in counties with a greater percentage of urban residents. A manuscript is in preparation and should be ready to submit to a scientific journal in a few months. Area 3: We also performed an ecologic study of the relationship between arsenic levels in ground water and cancer incidence in Idaho. Using 1990-2005 data from the Cancer Registry of Idaho and the Idaho Department of Environmental Quality, we used spatial autocorrelation analysis to identify geographic patterns of incidence rates for NHL, bladder cancer, kidney cancer, liver cancer, lung cancer, and all cancers combined. We employed spatial regression analysis to evaluate the relationship between ground water arsenic levels and cancer incidence rates. We identified various geographic clusters of certain cancers, some of which were gender-specific. Cancer incidence was correlated with several explanatory factors, such as gender, race, smoking history, and body mass index, but we found no evidence that exposure to arsenic in ground water was associated with cancer incidence rates. A manuscript is in preparation and should be ready to submit to a scientific journal in a few months.

在过去的一年中，我对该项目的研究集中在三个领域：（1）与吸烟或筛查无关的癌症的发病率和死亡率分析，（2）对非霍奇金淋巴瘤（NHL）的发病率进行比较，以及（3）对地下水对癌症侵蚀的生态评估的生态评估。 在这些领域的研究涉及APC分析，联合分析和空间分析。 这项工作与匹兹堡大学的研究人员合作。 下面更详细地描述了这三个研究领域。 区域1： 我们根据SEER计划的数据研究了美国癌症发病率和死亡率的时间模式。 发病率数据来自1975年至2004年，死亡率数据是从1970 - 2004年开始的。 我们使用APC模型来研究年龄组，时间周期和出生队列对三类癌症率的影响：与吸烟有关的癌症，可通过筛查检测到的癌症以及所有其他癌症。 我们的主要重点是最后类别，这与癌症相对应，其时间模式不应轻易通过与烟草吸烟或筛查技术相关的变化来解释。 在最后一个类别中，我们特别注意NHL。 我们的APC模型是根据远程趋势和与这些趋势线的偏差进行参数化的。 与线性的偏差可以唯一归因于年龄，周期或队列效应，但是趋势线的斜率不能。 远程趋势是根据合并期和队列效应总结的，可以对相应的斜率进行唯一的估计。 总体而言，对于与吸烟或筛查无关的癌症，黑人和白人男性和女性的发病率增加，死亡率降低。 实际上，NHL的远距离趋势对发病率和死亡率均为阳性。 但是，对于与一般的吸烟或筛查无关的癌症，尤其是NHL无关的癌症，对线性的偏差很大。 因此，关于这些癌症模式的时间影响，远程趋势并未说明整个故事。 手稿正在准备，应该准备在接下来的两个月内提交科学期刊。 区域2： 我们更详细地研究了NHL的发生率。 具体而言，我们研究了时间和人口因素对NHL发生率的影响。 另外，我们使用了SEER注册中心和宾夕法尼亚癌症注册表（PCR）的数据，这不是SEER计划的一部分。 我们采用了APC和JOINPOINT模型来分析数据。 相对于APC分析，联接点分析平均超过年龄段，并且不解释队列效应，但是它可以容纳多个趋势线，这些趋势线在日历年（周期）量表上在任意点加入。 比较和对比了国家和州登记处以及APC和联合分析的结果。 根据1985年至2004年的数据，就NHL发生率的时间模式而言，SEER和PCR结果相似。 根据APC和联合点分析，NHL的发生率在1985年至2004年之间在全国和宾夕法尼亚州的黑人男女中增加。 弥漫性淋巴瘤似乎是这种增加的最重要组成部分。 在宾夕法尼亚州，在城市居民中，NHL的发病率更高。 手稿正在准备，应该准备在几个月内提交科学期刊。 区域3： 我们还对爱达荷州的地下水中砷水平与癌症发病率之间的关系进行了生态研究。 使用爱达荷州癌症登记局和爱达荷州环境质量部的1990 - 2005年数据，我们使用空间自相关分析来识别NHL，膀胱癌，肾脏癌，肾癌，肝癌，肺癌和所有癌症的NHL发病率的地理模式。 我们采用了空间回归分析来评估地下水砷水平与癌症发病率之间的关系。 我们确定了某些癌症的各种地理簇，其中一些是特定于性别的。 癌症的发病率与几个解释性因素相关，例如性别，种族，吸烟史和体重指数，但我们没有发现证据表明地下水中砷的暴露与癌症发病率有关。 手稿正在准备，应该准备在几个月内提交科学期刊。