Methods and Applications for Population-based Incidence and Mortality Statistics

基于人群的发病率和死亡率统计的方法和应用

• 批准号: 8149106
• 负责人: Gregg Dinse
• 金额: $ 1.6万
• 依托单位: NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH SCIENCES
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 至
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/8149106
• 关键词: Age; Area; Cancer Etiology; Data; Data Analyses; Demographic Factors; Environmental Health; Epidemiology; Goals; HIV; HIV Infections; Incidence; International; Journals; Methods; National Cancer Institute; Residual state; mortality; population based; sex; statistics; trend

This project was concluded this year. Most of the analyses were performed in past years and our research time this year was spent primarily on editing papers in three areas: (1) analyses of long-term linear trends in cancer incidence and mortality, (2) analyses of cancer incidence and mortality trends that allow for curvature, and (3) analyses of incidence trends for non-Hodgkin's lymphoma in Pennsylvania. Our research in these areas mainly involved age-period-cohort and joinpoint analyses. This research was performed in collaboration with several researchers at the University of Pittsburgh. The three areas of research are described in more detail below. Area 1: We examined cancer incidence and mortality trends in the United States using population-based data from the SEER program. The incidence data were from 1975-2004 and the mortality data were from 1970-2004. We used APC models to investigate the effects of age group, time period, and birth cohort on the rates of cancer in three categories: cancers related to tobacco use, cancers detectable by screening, and all other cancers. By design, time trends observed in the residual category could not reasonably be attributed to temporal changes in cigarette smoking or screening practices. Incidence and mortality rates were analyzed with respect to long-term trends, which can reflect changes in cancer risk factors. Studying trends in light of known risk factors may indicate unexplained cancer patterns. Specifically, we focused on linear trends in the log-transformed rates, summarized by average annual percentage changes and generational risks. The latter concept assesses relative cancer rates between one point in time and another 25 years (i.e., one "generation") earlier. Among whites over a 25-year span, cancer incidence in the residual category increased 34% in men and 23% in women, while mortality decreased 14% in men and 18% in women. Similar results were obtained for blacks. Changes in tobacco use and screening practices do not completely explain observed changes in cancer trends over the last three decades. We expect that focusing on the cancers in the residual category will provide clues about the causes of these unexplained increases in cancer incidence. An article reporting this research was published this year in Cancer. Area 2: We extended our APC analysis to account for non-linear trends. Specifically, we assumed a constant curvature model for the log-transformed incidence and mortality rates, of which linearity is a special case. Again we focused on a residual cancer category, but in addition to tobacco-related and screen-detectable cancers, we also excluded cancers associated with HIV infection. Incidence rates increased in every race-sex group, and factors related to both time period and birth cohort membership appeared to accelerate these increases in women. Mortality rates decreased in black and white men and women, with the declines decelerating in white women but accelerating in the other race-sex groups. Increasing incidence of cancers not related to tobacco, screening, or HIV may signify increasing cancer risks, changing diagnostic practices, or better case ascertainment. Declining mortality may signify improvements in cancer care. An article reporting this research was published this year in Cancer Causes and Control. Area 3: We investigated the incidence of non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (NHL) in greater detail, studying the effects of both temporal and demographic factors. We focused on data from the Pennsylvania Cancer Registry (PCR), which is not part of the SEER program, but we also used data from the SEER program for comparison purposes. Data from the PCR were available from 1985 to 2004, so we restricted our attention to the same 20 years for the SEER data. We were primarily interested in analyzing the PCR data, but we also compared and contrasted the Pennsylvania results with the national (SEER) results. Over the 20-year period from 1985 to 2004, the incidence of NHL in Pennsylvania increased annually 1.6% and 2.5% in white and black men and 1.6% and 3.2% in white and black women. National trends were similar, except for smaller increases in white men. Diffuse lymphoma appeared to be the most important component of this increase. The incidence of NHL was higher in Pennsylvania counties with greater percentages of urban residents. An article reporting this research was published this year in the International Journal of Occupational and Environmental Health.

该项目今年结束了。 大多数分析是在过去几年中进行的，我们今年的研究时间主要用于在三个领域进行编辑论文：（1）分析癌症发病率和死亡率的长期线性趋势，（2）癌症发病率和死亡率趋势的分析，这些趋势允许曲率进行曲率，以及（3）非hodgbinkkin lymphania的入射趋势分析。 我们在这些领域的研究主要涉及年龄 - 周期和加入点分析。 这项研究是与匹兹堡大学的几位研究人员合作进行的。 下面更详细地描述了这三个研究领域。 区域1： 我们使用SEER计划中的基于人群的数据检查了美国的癌症发病率和死亡率趋势。 发病率数据来自1975年至2004年，死亡率数据是从1970 - 2004年开始的。 我们使用APC模型来研究年龄组，时间段和出生队列对三类癌症率的影响：与烟草使用有关的癌症，可通过筛查可检测到的癌症以及所有其他癌症。 根据设计，在残留类别中观察到的时间趋势不能合理地归因于吸烟或筛查实践的时间变化。 相对于长期趋势分析了发病率和死亡率，这可能反映了癌症危险因素的变化。 根据已知危险因素研究趋势可能表明无法解释的癌症模式。 具体而言，我们重点介绍了对数转换率的线性趋势，总结了平均年度百分比变化和世代风险。 后一个概念评估了一个时间点和较早25年（即一个“一代”）之间的相对癌症率。 在25年的白人中，残留类别的癌症发生率增加了34％，女性的癌症发生率增加了34％，而男性死亡率下降了14％，女性的死亡率降低了18％。 黑人获得了类似的结果。 在过去三十年中，烟草使用和筛查实践的变化并不能完全解释癌症趋势的变化。 我们预计，关注残留类别的癌症将提供有关这些无法解释的癌症发病率增加的原因的线索。 一篇报道这项研究的文章今年发表了有关癌症的文章。 区域2： 我们扩展了APC分析以说明非线性趋势。 具体而言，我们假设了对数转换的发病率和死亡率的恒定曲率模型，其中线性是一种特殊情况。 再次，我们专注于残留的癌症类别，但是除了与烟草有关的筛查和可检测的癌症外，我们还排除了与HIV感染相关的癌症。 每个种族性别群体的发病率都会提高，与时间段和出生队列成员有关的因素似乎加速了女性的这些增加。 黑人和白人男性和女性的死亡率下降，白人妇女的下降减速，但在其他种族性别群体中加速。 与烟草，筛查或艾滋病毒无关的癌症发生率的增加可能表明癌症风险增加，诊断习惯的改变或更好的病例确定。 死亡率下降可能意味着癌症护理的改善。 一篇文章报道了这项研究今年在癌症原因和控制方面发表。 区域3： 我们更详细地研究了非霍奇金淋巴瘤（NHL）的发生率，研究了时间和人口统计学因素的影响。 我们专注于宾夕法尼亚州癌症注册中心（PCR）的数据，该数据不是SEER计划的一部分，但我们还将SEER计划的数据用于比较目的。 从1985年到2004年，来自PCR的数据可获得，因此我们将注意力限制在SEER数据的20年中。 我们主要对分析PCR数据感兴趣，但是我们还将宾夕法尼亚州的结果与国家（SEER）结果进行了比较并将其进行了比较。 在从1985年到2004年的20年中，宾夕法尼亚州NHL的发病率每年增加1.6％和2.5％，白人和黑人的发病率在白人和黑人妇女中增加了1.6％和3.2％。 国家趋势是相似的，除了白人男性的增加量较小。 弥漫性淋巴瘤似乎是这种增加的最重要组成部分。 宾夕法尼亚州县的NHL发生率更高，城市居民比例更高。 一篇报道这项研究的文章今年发表在《国际职业与环境健康杂志》上。

项目成果

Generational risks for cancers not related to tobacco, screening, or treatment in the United States.

• DOI: 10.1002/cncr.24747
• 发表时间: 2010-02-15
• 期刊: CANCER
• 影响因子: 6.2
• 作者: Han, Yueh-Ying;Davis, Devra L.;Weissfeld, Joel L.;Dinse, Gregg E.
• 通讯作者: Dinse, Gregg E.

Temporal and demographic patterns of non-Hodgkin's lymphoma incidence in Pennsylvania.

• DOI: 10.1179/107735210800546164
• 发表时间: 2010-01
• 期刊: International journal of occupational and environmental health
• 作者: Han YY;Dinse GE;Davis DL
• 通讯作者: Davis DL

Age-period-cohort analysis of cancers not related to tobacco, screening, or HIV: sex and race differences.

• DOI: 10.1007/s10552-010-9550-5
• 发表时间: 2010-08
• 期刊: CANCER CAUSES & CONTROL
• 影响因子: 2.3
• 作者: Han, Yueh-Ying;Dinse, Gregg E.;Umbach, David M.;Davis, Devra L.;Weissfeld, Joel L.
• 通讯作者: Weissfeld, Joel L.