Modeling the public health impact of a flavored cigar ban

模拟调味雪茄禁令对公共健康的影响

• 批准号: 10665869
• 负责人: Sarah Mills
• 金额: $ 67.96万
• 依托单位: UNIV OF NORTH CAROLINA CHAPEL HILL
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2023
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2023-09-30 至 2028-08-31
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/10665869
• 关键词: Address; Adult; Affect; Behavior; Black race; Characteristics; Cigar; Cigarette; Cigarette Smoker; Collaborations; Communication; Country; Data; Demographic Impact; Disease; Effectiveness; Electronic cigarette; Ethnic Origin; Face; Health; Health Benefit; Individual; Inequity; Legal; Literature; Low income; Maintenance; Marketing; Markov Chains; Menthol; Modeling; Monitor; North Carolina; Pattern; Persons; Pharyngeal structure; Phase; Policies; Population; Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health; Population Group; Positioning Attribute; Poverty; Prevalence; Probability; Public Health; Race; Reduce health disparities; Regulation; Research; Research Priority; Sales; Science; Smoke; Smoking; Study models; Subgroup; System; Taste Perception; Time; Tobacco; Tobacco use; United States; United States Food and Drug Administration; Universities; Update; Youth; cigarette smoke; cigarillos; combustible tobacco; contextual factors; design; ethnic minority; health disparity; improved; models and simulation; mortality; mortality disparity; polytobacco use; population health; racial minority; systematic review; tobacco control; tobacco flavor; tobacco products; tobacco regulation; tobacco regulatory science; tobacco user; tool

ABSTRACT: PROJECT 3 The objective of this project is to estimate the public health impact of a federal flavored cigar ban on tobacco use, mortality and health disparities in the United States. This project will build a microsimulation model of individuals living in the US who are current, former, or potential users of cigars, cigarettes and e-cigarettes. The model can be used to track tobacco use over time, so the impact of a flavored cigar ban on smoking and mortality in the US population and in priority populations for tobacco control, such as among people who are Black or have lower incomes, can be estimated. The microsimulation model will be built in three phases corresponding to the specific aims. Specifically, using data from the nationally representative, longitudinal Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health study, we will estimate tobacco use transition probabilities over time, with a focus on the effects of cigar use on initiation, cessation, and dual/poly use of tobacco products (Aim 1). We will conduct a systematic review to compile data on cigar users’ tobacco use after a flavored cigar ban and elicit potential policy design effects from tobacco experts. Tobacco experts will be asked to develop plausible and distinct flavored cigar ban scenarios to simulate and compare, and quantify how key post-ban contextual factors (e.g., policy enforcement) affect the impact of the ban (Aim 2). Finally, using findings from Aims 1 and 2, and estimates from the literature, we will build a microsimulation model to estimate how tobacco use and mortality changes in the presence of a federal flavored cigar ban and in plausible moderating circumstances, such as with weak tobacco retailer compliance with a ban (Aim 3). This project will provide a comprehensive understanding of the potential public health impact of a flavored cigar ban, critical scientific evidence to counter likely legal challenges against a federal ban. We will also identify key threats to policy effectiveness for the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to monitor and address in collaboration with local and state partners to maximize the public health benefits of the policy. This project addresses FDA research priorities to assess the impact of tobacco product characteristics (i.e., flavors) on initiation and cessation (Behavior, Aim 1) and to understand the public health impact of potential FDA regulatory action on tobacco use behavior and health (Impact Analysis, Aims 2 and 3). The University of North Carolina (UNC) Tobacco Centers of Regulatory Science (TCORS) has deep expertise in tobacco regulation and communications. The Center’s Integrative Theme is building the science for effective regulation of and communication about tobacco products disproportionately used by priority populations – flavored tobacco products.

摘要：项目3 该项目的目的是估计联邦调味雪茄禁令对烟草的公共卫生影响 美国使用，死亡率和健康差异。该项目将建立一个微仿真模型 居住在美国的个人是现有，以前或潜在的民事，文明和电子烟的人。 该模型可用于跟踪烟草的使用，因此，禁令禁令对吸烟和 美国人口的死亡率以及烟草控制的优先人口的优先人口，例如 黑色或收入较低，可以估计。微仿真模型将分为三个阶段 对应于特定目标。具体而言，使用来自国家代表的纵向数据 烟草和健康研究的人口评估，我们将估计烟草使用过渡可能性 时间，重点是使用雪茄对烟草产品的主动性，停止和双/多用量的影响 （目标1）。我们将进行系统的审查，以在调味的雪茄之后编译有关雪茄用户使用的烟草的数据 禁止并引起烟草专家的潜在政策设计影响。烟草专家将被要求开发 合理且独特的调味雪茄禁令场景，以模拟和比较，并量化关键后杆的方式 上下文因素（例如，政策执行）会影响禁令的影响（AIM 2）。最后，使用来自 目标1和2，以及文献的估计，我们将建立一个微仿真模型，以估算烟草的方式 在存在联邦调味雪茄禁令的情况下，使用和死亡率的变化以及合理的调节 情况，例如较弱的烟草零售商遵守禁令（AIM 3）。该项目将提供一个 对雪茄禁令的潜在公共卫生影响，关键科学的潜在公共卫生影响的全面了解 有证据表明可能针对联邦禁令提出的法律挑战。我们还将确定对政策的关键威胁 食品和药物管理局（FDA）与当地协作监控和解决的有效性 和国家合作伙伴，以最大程度地利用该政策的公共卫生益处。该项目解决了FDA研究 评估烟草产品特征（即口味）对启动和停止的影响的优先级 （行为，目标1）并了解潜在的FDA监管行动对烟草使用的公共卫生影响 行为和健康（影响分析，目标2和3）。北卡罗来纳大学（UNC）烟草中心 监管科学（TCORS）在烟草监管和通信方面具有深厚的专业知识。中心的 综合主题是建立科学，以有效监管烟草产品和沟通 优先人群不成比例地使用 - 激发烟草产品。