Modeling the public health impact of a national menthol cigarette ban.

模拟全国薄荷卷烟禁令对公共健康的影响。

• 批准号: 10212986
• 负责人: Sarah Mills
• 金额: $ 15.79万
• 依托单位: UNIV OF NORTH CAROLINA CHAPEL HILL
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2019
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2019-08-07 至 2024-07-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/10212986
• 关键词: Address; Adolescent; Adult; Advisory Committees; African American; Anesthetics; Asians; Award; Behavior; Cardiovascular Diseases; Cessation of life; Cigarette; Communities; Data; Data Pooling; Disease; Epidemiology; Esthesia; Ethnic group; Excision; Frequencies; Goals; Grant; Guidelines; Health; Hispanics; Income; Individual; K-Series Research Career Programs; Literature; Longitudinal Studies; Low income; Malignant Neoplasms; Markov Chains; Menthol; Mentorship; Meta-Analysis; Minority Groups; Modeling; Not Hispanic or Latino; Pattern; Play; Policies; Population; Probability; Public Health; Reporting; Research; Research Personnel; Research Priority; Role; Sales; Smoker; Smoking; Study models; Surveys; Taste Perception; Testing; Time; Tobacco; Tobacco use; Tobacco-Related Carcinoma; Training; United States; United States Food and Drug Administration; Work; Youth; career; cigarette smoking; ethnic minority population; former smoker; health disparity; improved; interest; models and simulation; novel; preference; preventable death; programs; public policy on tobacco; racial and ethnic; racial and ethnic disparities; skills; socioeconomics; systematic review; time use; tobacco control; tobacco products; tool

PROJECT SUMMARY/ABSTRACT Smoking is the leading cause of preventable disease and death in the United States. More than one-third of smokers in the United States use menthol cigarettes. Menthol cigarettes are of particular public health concern because they make it easier for adolescents to initiate smoking and are more difficult to quit than non-menthol cigarettes. In addition, menthol cigarettes are disproportionately used by youth, low-income and racial/ethnic minority smokers. In 2011 the Tobacco Products Scientific Advisory Committee (TPSAC), a Congressionally mandated committee assembled to advise the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), reported that “removal of menthol cigarettes from the marketplace would benefit public health in the United States.” Despite TPSAC’s conclusion, the FDA has not banned menthol cigarettes. Instead, the FDA has requested additional research to inform regulatory action. The objective of this project is to use microsimulation modeling to estimate the impact of a national menthol cigarette ban on tobacco use and tobacco-related disease, specifically cardiovascular disease (CVD) and tobacco-related cancers. This research would inform potential FDA regulatory action on menthol cigarettes. The project has three aims. Aim 1 identifies trajectories of cigarette use over time using longitudinal, nationally representative survey data. To achieve this aim, I will use Markov chains to compute transition probabilities of tobacco use behavior (frequency, intensity, flavor preference) over time. Aim 2 systematically reviews and meta-analyzes studies examining the effects of menthol cigarette bans on tobacco product use. This will be the first review to synthesize the literature on the impact of a menthol cigarette ban, providing critical information for microsimulation modeling. Aim 3 builds a microsimulation model of smoking and tobacco-related disease to estimate the impact of a national menthol cigarette ban on smoking, CVD, and tobacco-related cancers. I will establish parameters for the model using the best epidemiological evidence and conduct sensitivity analyses to test the validity of the model. Finally, I will estimate the change in smoking, CVD, and tobacco-related cancers that would occur in the total population and in specific socioeconomic and racial/ethnic groups if a menthol cigarette ban were implemented. I hypothesize that a national menthol cigarette ban will reduce socioeconomic and racial/ethnic disparities in smoking, CVD, and tobacco-related cancers. The career development award will help me achieve my goal of becoming an independent tobacco control and health disparities researcher. I will receive the training and mentorship needed to build an independent research program focused on the role tobacco control policy may play in improving the public’s health, in particular among groups that disproportionately suffer from smoking and tobacco-related disease. This award will culminate in an application for an R01 grant to expand upon my microsimulation model, comparing the impacts of additional tobacco control policies on smoking and disease.

项目摘要/摘要 吸烟是美国可预防疾病和死亡的主要原因。超过三分之一 美国的吸烟者使用心态。薄荷文明特别关注公共卫生 因为它们使青少年更容易引发吸烟，并且比非巨人更难戒烟 香烟。此外，薄荷香烟被青年，低收入和种族/族裔使用不成比例 少数吸烟者。 2011年，国会上的烟草产品科学咨询委员会（TPSAC） 要求委员会集会建议食品药品监督管理局（FDA），报告说：“去除 来自市场的薄荷香烟将使美国的公共卫生受益。 结论，FDA尚未禁止精神病香烟。相反，FDA已要求进行其他研究 告知监管行动。该项目的目的是使用微仿真建模来估计 全国精神病香烟禁令对烟草使用和与烟草有关的疾病的影响，特别是 心血管疾病（CVD）和与烟草有关的癌症。这项研究将为潜在的FDA提供信息 关于心态香烟的监管行动。该项目有三个目标。目标1标识香烟的轨迹 随着时间的流逝，使用纵向代表性的调查数据。为了实现这一目标，我将使用马尔可夫 链条以计算烟草使用行为的过渡可能性（频率，强度，风味偏好） 时间。 AIM 2系统地回顾和荟萃分析研究了精神病烟的影响 关于烟草产品的使用。这将是首次综合有关精神病影响的文献的评论 卷烟禁令，为微仿真建模提供关键信息。 AIM 3构建了微仿真模型 吸烟和与烟草有关的疾病，以估计禁令禁令对吸烟的影响， CVD和与烟草有关的癌症。我将使用最佳流行病学建立模型的参数 证据和进行灵敏度分析以测试模型的有效性。最后，我将估计变更 吸烟，CVD和与烟草相关的癌症，这些癌症会在总人口中发生，并在特定的人口中发生 如果实施了精神病烟，则社会经济和种族/种族群体。我假设一个 国家薄荷香烟禁令将减少吸烟，CVD中的社会经济和种族/种族差异 与烟草有关的癌症。职业发展奖将帮助我实现成为一个目标 独立的烟草控制和健康差异研究人员。我将获得培训和心态 需要建立一个专注于烟草控制政策角色的独立研究计划。 改善公众的健康，尤其是在吸烟和不成比例的群体中 与烟草有关的疾病。该奖项将在R01赠款的申请中达到高潮，以扩展我的 微仿真模型，比较了其他烟草控制政策对吸烟和疾病的影响。