Epidemiological and Spatial Models of Malaria Transmission

疟疾传播的流行病学和空间模型

• 批准号: 9237190
• 负责人: Steven Richard Meshnick
• 金额: $ 46.89万
• 依托单位: UNIV OF NORTH CAROLINA CHAPEL HILL
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2014
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2014-04-01 至 2019-03-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/9237190
• 关键词: Adult; Affect; Africa; Age; Altitude; Beds; Blood; Collaborations; Communities; Country; Cross-Sectional Studies; Culicidae; Data; Democratic Republic of the Congo; Demographic and Health Surveys; Effectiveness; Enrollment; Environmental Risk Factor; Epidemiologist; Epidemiology; Falciparum Malaria; Genes; Genetic; Genetic Variation; Goals; Health; Housing; Human Resources; Individual; Infection; Interdisciplinary Study; Intervention; Malaria; Maps; Mathematics; Measures; Medical; Methods; Microsatellite Repeats; Modeling; Molecular; Nomads; Output; Parasites; Plasmodium falciparum; Population; Population Genetics; Prevalence; Prospective Studies; RNA-Directed DNA Polymerase; Reverse Transcriptase Polymerase Chain Reaction; Risk; Risk Factors; Rivers; Route; Sampling; Seasons; Site; Socioeconomic Status; Spottings; Structure; Survival Analysis; Time; Transportation; Uncertainty; asexual; base; cofactor; epidemiology study; genetic approach; global health; improved; innovation; malaria infection; malaria transmission; mathematical model; multilevel analysis; novel; programs; public health relevance; spatial epidemiology; tool; transmission process; trend; user-friendly; web-based tool

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): The global malaria burden remains high despite recent advances in malaria control efforts. The goal of this project is to develop data-driven tool to enable malaria control programs to target the malaria transmission reservoir. We will use samples from the Democratic Republic of the Congo, one of countries with the highest malaria burden in the world. Dried blood spots will be obtained a large cross-sectional study, the 2014 Demographic and Health Survey (DHS), and from a new prospective study of 1000 individuals in 4 sites with varying levels of endemicity. Gametocytemia will be measured by reverse transcriptase PCR. Our first aim is to map the gametocyte reservoir and determine how individual, community-level, and ecological factors determine an individual's risk for gametocyte carriage. Our second aim is to identify barriers and corridors of gene flow. The structure of the P. falciparum at each cluster in the DHS will be assessed using neutral microsatellites. The genetic distances between parasite subpopulations will be calculated using population genetic metrics (Rst, Gst, Nm) and used to infer corridors of, and barriers to, gene flow. Our third aim is to use the results from aims 1 and 2 to parameterize and improve an existing mathematical spatial model for malaria transmission. This latter model will be developed into a user-friendly freely available PC-based tool to allow the impact of targeted control to be explored in DRC and the surrounding region. This project represents a unique multidisciplinary collaboration between molecular epidemiologists, medical geographers and mathematical modelers. By incorporating results from molecular and spatial epidemiological studies into mathematical models, we hope to develop a useful and practical tool for malaria control.

描述（由申请人提供）：尽管疟疾控制工作最近取得了进步，但全球疟疾负担仍然很高。该项目的目的是开发数据驱动的工具，以使疟疾控制程序能够针对疟疾传输库。我们将使用刚果民主共和国的样本，刚果民主共和国是世界上疟疾负担最高的国家之一。干血点将获得一项大型横断面研究，即2014年人口统计和健康调查（DHS），以及从四个地点的1000名患者进行的新的前瞻性研究，具有不同水平的流行性水平。配子细胞血症将通过逆转录酶PCR测量。我们的第一个目的是绘制配子型储层，并确定个体，社区级别和生态因素如何确定个人的配子型运输风险。我们的第二个目的是确定基因流的障碍和走廊。 DHS中每个簇的恶性疟原虫的结构将使用中性微卫星进行评估。寄生虫亚群之间的遗传距离将使用种群遗传指标（RST，GST，NM）计算，并用于推断基因流的走廊和障碍。我们的第三个目标是 使用目标1和2的结果来参数化和改善现有的疟疾传播数学空间模型。后一种模型将被发展为一种基于用户友好的自由PC的工具，以允许在DRC及其周边地区探索目标控制的影响。该项目代表了分子流行病学家，医学地理学家和数学建模者之间独特的多学科合作。通过将分子和空间流行病学研究的结果纳入数学模型，我们希望为疟疾控制开发有用的实用工具。