Vulnerability to Health Effects of Wildfires under a Changing Climate in Western

西部气候变化下野火对健康影响的脆弱性

• 批准号: 8266997
• 负责人: Michelle L Bell
• 金额: $ 26.39万
• 依托单位: YALE UNIVERSITY
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2012
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2012-06-01 至 2014-05-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/8266997
• 关键词: Accounting; Admission activity; Affect; Age; Age Factors; Air; Air Pollutants; Air Pollution; Airborne Particulate Matter; Area; Burn injury; California; Cardiovascular Diseases; Characteristics; Chemicals; Chemistry; Climate; Code; Communities; Comorbidity; Data; Data Set; Databases; Disease; Elderly; Environmental Exposure; Environmental Risk Factor; Epidemiologic Studies; Equipment and supply inventories; Exposure to; Fire - disasters; Foundations; Future; Geographic Locations; Health; Hospitalization; Hospitals; Human; Individual; Intervention; Lead; Link; Literature; Low income; Lung diseases; Maps; Medicare; Methods; Minority; Modeling; Morbidity - disease rate; Older Population; Outcome; Persons; Population; Property; Public Health; Race; Reporting; Research; Resolution; Resource Allocation; Resources; Risk; Risk Estimate; Science; Services; Severities; Smoke; Socioeconomic Status; Source; Statistical Methods; Statistical Models; Uncertainty; Unemployment; United States; United States National Institutes of Health; Weather; Wildfire; base; climate change; design; forest; high risk; novel strategies; pollutant; response; sex; trafficking

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concluded that climate change will likely increase forest fire severity, with fires that bur more intensely and spread more rapidly. NIH identified climate change and forest fires as a critical research need. According to the U.S. Forest Service, fire risk has already increased. Several studies suggest that forest fires affects health; however, the true health burden is unknown as no large- scale studies have been conducted. Current research is limited in scope and methods to estimate exposure to fire smoke. Scientific literature on ambient air pollutants indicates that some populations are more vulnerable than others to health responses. We hypothesize that some populations are more vulnerable to health impacts of forest fires under a changing climate. To estimate this vulnerability, new data and methods are needed. We propose to develop the necessary databases and methods so we can investigate the vulnerability to hospital admissions from forest fires in the western United States. In Aim 1 (exposure estimation), we will develop a new approach to integrate a chemical transport model, GEOS-Chem, with state-of-the-science forest fire emission inventories to estimate the contribution of forest fires to airborne particulate matter (PM). Our method generates daily, gridded estimates of PM2.5 from forest fire smoke and PM2.5 from other pollutant sources. In Aim 2 (risk estimation) we will develop a data set that links information on weather conditions, individual-level data on hospital admissions and co-morbidities, and community factors (e.g., unemployment) at the zip-code level with PM2.5 from forest fires. We will develop statistical models for estimating the association between exposure to forest fire smoke and risk of hospitalizations for persons >65 years. In this aim, we identify which populations are most vulnerable with respect to individual factors (age, race, sex, pre- existing conditions), region, community factors (e.g., unemployment) and environmental factors (e.g., weather). In Aim 3 (exposure and risk prediction through 2050), we will use the approach developed in Aim 1 and climate model projections to predict future area burned and forest fire emissions through 2050. These estimates will be used with chemical transport modeling to estimate future forest fire exposures. We will then use the approach developed in Aim 2 to predict the change in risk of hospitalizations, by vulnerability, under a changing climate accounting for the many sources of uncertainty in exposure and risk estimation. This study would advance understanding of how forest fires affect health in the present day and which populations are most vulnerable, and of how climate change could impact forest fires and thereby health and related vulnerabilities. Our findings would benefit efforts to manage forest fires, allow more targeted public health interventions, and aid effective allocation of resources, which is particularly important given the increased risk under climate change. The databases and methods developed would provide the research framework for studies of other environmental exposures, health outcomes, and climate change scenarios. PUBLIC HEALTH RELEVANCE: The proposed research would investigate our hypothesis that some populations are more vulnerable to health impacts of forest fires under a changing climate. Our findings would benefit efforts to manage forest fires, allow more targeted public health interventions, and aid effective allocation of resources, which is particularly important given the increased risk under climate change. The databases and methods developed would provide the research framework for studies of other environmental exposures, health outcomes, and climate change scenarios.

描述（由申请人提供）：政府间气候变化专门委员会 (IPCC) 得出的结论是，气候变化可能会加剧森林火灾的严重程度，导致火灾燃烧得更猛烈、蔓延得更快。美国国立卫生研究院将气候变化和森林火灾确定为一项关键的研究需求。据美国林务局称，火灾风险已经增加。多项研究表明森林火灾会影响健康；然而，由于尚未进行大规模研究，真正的健康负担尚不清楚。目前的研究在估计火灾烟雾暴露的范围和方法方面受到限制。关于环境空气污染物的科学文献表明，某些人群比其他人群更容易受到健康反应的影响。我们假设，在气候变化的情况下，一些人群更容易受到森林火灾的健康影响。为了估计这个漏洞，需要新的数据和方法。我们建议开发必要的数据库和方法，以便我们能够调查美国西部森林火灾住院的脆弱性。在目标 1（暴露估计）中，我们将开发一种新方法，将化学品传输模型 GEOS-Chem 与最先进的森林火灾排放清单相结合，以估计森林火灾对空气中颗粒物 (PM) 的贡献）。我们的方法每天生成森林火灾烟雾中的 PM2.5 和其他污染物源中的 PM2.5 的网格估计值。在目标 2（风险评估）中，我们将开发一个数据集，将天气状况信息、入院和合并症的个人数据以及邮政编码级别的社区因素（例如失业）与 PM2.5 联系起来来自森林火灾。我们将开发统计模型来估计 65 岁以上人群接触森林火灾烟雾与住院风险之间的关联。为此，我们确定哪些人群在个人因素（年龄、种族、性别、既往病史）、地区、社区因素（例如失业）和环境因素（例如天气）方面最脆弱。在目标 3（截至 2050 年的暴露和风险预测）中，我们将使用目标 1 中开发的方法和气候模型预测来预测到 2050 年未来的烧毁面积和森林火灾排放。这些估计将与化学品迁移模型结合使用，以估计未来的森林火灾暴露。然后，我们将使用目标 2 中开发的方法来预测住院风险的变化（按脆弱性），在气候变化的情况下，考虑暴露和风险估计中不确定性的许多来源。这项研究将增进对当今森林火灾如何影响健康、哪些人群最脆弱以及气候变化如何影响森林火灾进而影响健康和相关脆弱性的了解。我们的研究结果将有利于森林火灾管理工作，允许更有针对性的公共卫生干预措施，并有助于有效分配资源，考虑到这一点尤为重要 气候变化带来的风险增加。开发的数据库和方法将为研究其他环境暴露、健康结果和气候变化情景提供研究框架。 公共卫生相关性：拟议的研究将调查我们的假设，即在气候变化的情况下，某些人群更容易受到森林火灾的健康影响。我们的研究结果将有利于森林火灾管理工作，允许更有针对性的公共卫生干预措施，并有助于有效分配资源，考虑到气候变化带来的风险增加，这一点尤为重要。开发的数据库和方法将为研究其他环境暴露、健康结果和气候变化情景提供研究框架。