Modeling the Effects of the Environment on Enteric Pathogen Dynamics

模拟环境对肠道病原体动态的影响

• 批准号: 8703237
• 负责人: Joseph N. S. Eisenberg
• 金额: $ 57.35万
• 依托单位: UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN AT ANN ARBOR
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2014
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2014-09-01 至 2019-06-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/8703237
• 关键词: Address; Agriculture; Air; Biological Models; Cholera; Cities; Complement; Cryptosporidium; Data; Decontamination; Disease; Ecuador; Enteral; Environment; Epidemiology; Excretory function; Food; Haiti; Hand; Human; Hygiene; Individual; Infection; International; Intervention; Measurable; Mediating; Methods; Modeling; Movement; Norovirus; Pathway interactions; Pattern; Policies; Process; Public Health; Recommendation; Relative (related person); Risk Assessment; Schools; Source; Surface; System; Thailand; Time; United States; Water; Work; Workplace; case-by-case basis; disease transmission; drinking water; enteric pathogen; environmental transport; insight; methicillin resistant Staphylococcus aureus; microbial; pathogen; public health relevance; respiratory; social; social movement; theories; therapy design; transmission process; water treatment; waterborne

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): There has been an increasing appreciation of the importance of environmental pathways for the human-to-human transmission of respiratory, enteric, and other pathogens. These indirect transmission chains may involve water, food, air, and fomites, all of which provide natural points for intervention. There is a need, therefore, to develop transmission models that explicitly describe pathogen dynamics and the dynamics of human contact with pathogens in these environments. We call these environmental infection transmission system (EITS) models. We propose to develop and examine such models across a range of spatial and temporal scales, as determined by agent survivability in different environments and temporal patterns of excretion and exposure. We focus on enteric pathogens as they: 1) exploit a wide range of environmental scales; 2) there exists extensive human and environmental data; and 3) enteric diseases have major global and domestic public health importance. We propose to build upon our work in the past 10 years applying transmission models to microbial risk assessment that has advanced regulatory policy for the USEPA, and more recently through our work in the Center for Advancing Microbial Risk Assessment (CAMRA). Our analyses have included transmission studies in domestic settings such as Cryptosporidium, MRSA, and norovirus in the United States, as well as international settings such as cholera and diarrheal diseases in Haiti, Thailand, and Ecuador. In our work thus far we have examined distinct types of environmentally mediated transmission on a case-by-case basis. Here we will develop a unified framework integrating environmental transmission across a wide range of temporal and spatial transmission scales. Specifically, we propose the following specific aims: 1) To develop an environmental infection transmission systems (EITS) modeling approach that focuses on long timescales, such as waterborne transmission; 2) To develop an EITS modeling approach that focuses on short timescales, such as fomite transmission; and 3) To develop a framework that integrates these diverse transmission pathways that span across a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. As many interventions are environmentally driven (e.g. surface cleaning, drinking water and wastewater treatment) this framework will provide detailed environmental insight and guidance for policy and interventions.

描述（由申请人提供）：人们对环境途径对人类到人类呼吸道，肠和其他病原体的传播的重要性越来越多。这些间接的传输链可能涉及水，食物，空气和富米特，所有这些都提供了自然的干预点。因此，有必要开发出明确描述病原体动力学的传播模型以及在这些环境中与病原体接触的动态。我们称这些环境感染传输系统（EIT）模型。我们建议在不同环境中的代理生存能力以及排泄和暴露的时间模式确定的一系列空间和时间尺度上开发和检查此类模型。我们将重点放在肠道病原体上：1）利用各种环境尺度； 2）存在广泛的人类和环境数据； 3）肠道疾病具有重要的全球和国内公共卫生重要性。我们建议在过去的10年中建立我们的工作，将传输模型应用于微生物风险评估，以提高了USEPA的监管政策，以及最近通过我们在推进微生物风险评估中心（CAMRA）的工作。我们的分析包括在国内环境中的传播研究，例如美国隐孢子虫，MRSA和诺如病毒，以及海地，泰国和厄瓜多尔等国际环境，例如霍乱和腹泻病。到目前为止，我们在工作中已经逐案检查了不同类型的环境介导的传输。在这里，我们将开发一个统一的框架，该框架整合了各种时间和空间传输量表的环境传输。具体而言，我们提出以下特定目的：1）开发环境感染传输系统（EITS）建模方法，该方法侧重于长时间尺度，例如水上传播； 2）开发一种集中在诸如Fomite传输之类的时间标准上的EIT建模方法； 3）开发一个框架，该框架整合了这些多样化的传输途径，这些途径跨越了广泛的空间和时间尺度。由于许多干预措施是环境驱动的（例如表面清洁，饮用水和废水处理），该框架将为政策和干预措施提供详细的环境洞察力和指导。