Behavioral Analysis in Structural Retirement Models

结构性退休模型中的行为分析

• 批准号: 7252476
• 负责人: ALAN Leslie GUSTMAN
• 金额: $ 15.98万
• 依托单位: NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2005
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2005-09-30 至 2009-06-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/7252476
• 关键词: Behavioral; Analysis; Structural; Retirement; Models

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): This project explores the roles of heterogeneous time preference, hyperbolic discounting and imperfect information in dynamic-stochastic models of retirement and saving. In contrast to the assumptions of simple life cycle models of saving and retirement, recent evidence suggests that many people may be poorly informed about their pensions and Social Security. To further explore the relation of imperfect information to retirement and saving, we will build the process of information gathering as a jointly determined endogenous outcome into a life cycle model of retirement and saving. We then will estimate models of retirement and saving in which there is heterogeneous time preference, and in which knowledge is endogenously determined. Hyperbolic discounting has been used to explain the failure to save, and recently to explain the joint determination of retirement and saving in the presence of sophisticated hyperbolic discounters (Diamond and Koszegi, 2003). We will extend to many periods the four period theoretical model of Diamond and Koszegi (2003). We then will estimate the model, producing for the first time estimates of a structural model of retirement and saving where there is hyperbolic discounting. By allowing a lengthy period of retirement, we can explore the implications of having a limited commitment device such as a DC plan, which cannot be used to constrain consumption beyond the time when a person becomes eligible to retrieve benefits at the beginning of the retirement period. As a baseline, we will specify a set of life cycle models without an explicit role for learning. Ultimately, we will integrate the strengths of each approach into a single model. The econometric analysis will be based on the first eight waves of the Health and Retirement Study. Health is closely related to retirement and wealth. It is a major determinant of each. Health measures reported by respondents are included in the model to be estimated.

描述（由申请人提供）：本项目探讨了在动态的退休和节省模型中异质时间偏好，双曲线折扣和不完美信息的作用。与简单的生命周期储蓄和退休模型的假设相反，最近的证据表明，许多人可能对他们的养老金和社会保障的了解很差。为了进一步探讨不完善的信息与退休和储蓄的关系，我们将建立信息收集的过程，作为共同确定的内源性结果，成为退休和储蓄的生命周期模型。然后，我们将估计有异质时间偏好的退休和节省模型，并确定知识的确定。 双曲线折扣已被用来解释无法节省的方法，并最近解释了在存在复杂的双曲线折叠术的情况下退休和节省的联合确定（Diamond and Koszegi，2003）。我们将扩展到许多时期的Diamond and Koszegi（2003）的四个时期理论模型。然后，我们将估算模型，首次生产退休结构模型，并在有双曲线折扣的情况下节省。通过允许长时间的退休期，我们可以探索拥有有限的承诺设备（例如DC计划）的含义，DC计划不能用来限制在退休期开始时有资格获得收益的时间以外的时间。 作为基准，我们将指定一套生命周期模型，而没有明确的学习角色。最终，我们将将每种方法的优势整合到一个模型中。 计量经济学分析将基于健康和退休研究的前八波浪潮。健康与退休和财富密切相关。它是每个的主要决定因素。受访者报告的健康指标包括在旨在估计的模型中。