Integrating Models of Health and Retirement

健康与退休的整合模式

• 批准号: 7914214
• 负责人: ALAN Leslie GUSTMAN
• 金额: $ 18.58万
• 依托单位: NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2007
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2007-09-15 至 2012-06-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/7914214
• 关键词: Adopted; Affect; Area; Award; Behavior; Behavioral; Cells; Cessation of life; Child; Comorbidity; Complex; Couples; Data; Decision Making; Development Plans; Dimensions; Disability Insurance; Disease; Divorce; Elderly; Enrollment; Family; Family health status; Feedback; Health; Health Expenditures; Health Insurance; Health Status; Household; Husband; Incidence; Individual; Insurance Coverage; Joints; Labor Forces; Life Expectancy; Life Insurance; Marketing; Measurement; Measures; Medicaid; Modeling; Occupations; Outcome; Parents; Policies; Process; Recording of previous events; Reporting; Research; Research Personnel; Retirement; Role; Savings; Shapes; Source; Spouses; Structural Models; Survivors; Time; Wages; Widow; Wife; Work; Writing; base; college; cost; disability; expectation; family structure; grandchild; income insurance; preference; programs; response; retiree; simulation

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): This project will expand a structural model of retirement and saving to incorporate a detailed analysis of the role of health and family in shaping these outcomes. Measures of health status will include the incidence and progression of specific diseases and comorbidities, detailed reports on limitations in ADLs and lADLs, demands of the job, and accommodations at work. The disability insurance application and award process will be modeled. In addition we will extend the model of the family to include the effects of own and spouse health and insurance on joint retirement decisions. At the family level, a first step will be to elaborate on the paths through which the health of one spouse influences the labor market decisions of the other, as the demands on time from one spouse are affected by the health of the other, while the needs for additional income and insurance are affected by the health of one or both spouses, the terms of the health insurance coverage for each spouse, and the course of savings. We also will measure the influence of health insurance offered in different forms to each spouse: only at work, as retiree health insurance, or through other sources of support for purchase of health insurance (including Medicaid). Outcomes in the expanded model are labor force activity and retirement dynamics, including direct and reverse flows among the states of full time work, partial retirement and full retirement, as well as wealth. Expanded state variables will reflect expanded measures of health status, disability status and insurance, and family structure. Avenues through which health affects retirement and wealth include the effect of health on the wage offer, the differential effect of health on the difficulty and unpleasantness of work in different occupations (disutility of work), the complex influence of health on work through the disability program, and the effects of health on wealth and thereby the creation of a wealth effect on retirement. A basic problem is that number of computations is proportional to the state space, and the state space grows exponentially with the number of state variables. Computational feasibility limits our ability to fully estimate at one time a single model that would incorporate the detailed description of each feature noted above. It will be necessary to adopt an incremental strategy for estimation that will be feasible, yet will deal comprehensively with the enriched description of health, disability, family and other factors we will analyze.

描述（由申请人提供）：该项目将扩大退休的结构模型和储蓄，以详细分析健康和家庭在塑造这些结果中的作用。健康状况的措施将包括特定疾病和合并症的发病率和进展，有关ADL和LADL限制的详细报告，工作需求以及工作中的住宿。残疾保险申请和奖励过程将进行建模。此外，我们将扩展家庭模型，以包括自己和配偶健康和保险对联合退休决策的影响。在家庭层面上，第一步将是详细说明一个配偶的健康影响另一个配偶的劳动力市场决策的道路，因为一个配偶的时间受到另一个配偶的要求受到另一个配偶的影响，而额外收入和保险的需求受到一个或两位配偶的健康状况，每个配偶的健康，每种配偶的健康保险条款，以及每个配偶的保险和均需。我们还将衡量每种配偶以不同形式提供的健康保险的影响：仅在工作，退休人员健康保险或通过购买健康保险的其他支持来源（包括医疗补助）。扩展模型的成果是劳动力活动和退休动态，包括全职工作状态之间的直接和反向流动，部分退休和完全退休以及财富。扩大的状态变量将反映出健康状况，残疾状况和保险以及家庭结构的扩展度量。健康影响退休和财富的途径包括健康对工资要约的影响，健康对不同职业工作的难度和不愉快的影响（工作的无效），通过残疾计划对健康的复杂影响以及健康对财富的影响以及对退休产生财富的影响。一个基本的问题是，计算数量与状态空间成正比，并且状态空间随状态变量的数量成倍增长。计算可行性限制了我们一次完全估算单个模型的能力，该模型将包含上述每个功能的详细描述。有必要采用一种逐步策略进行估算，这将是可行的，但将全面处理我们将分析的健康，残疾，家庭和其他因素的丰富描述。