Public Expertise, Scientific Evidence, and Political Decision-making: Statistical and Public Policy Perspectives

公共专业知识、科学证据和政治决策：统计和公共政策视角

• 批准号: 2750672
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: University of Cambridge
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Studentship
• 财政年份: 2022
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2022 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=studentship-2750672
• 关键词: Public; Expertise; Scientific; Evidence; Political

The COVID pandemic has brought into sharper relief some of the underlying tensions that have long existed in the making of public policy. Amongst these are: the nature of expertise and its impact on policymaking processes; the appropriate role for data and evidence in decision-making; and how best to balance political imperatives in ways that mean 'good politics' will also lead to 'good policy'. Science deals in complexity, probability, and the modelling of risk. Politics relies on the projection of certainty. What happens, then, when the inherent ambiguity of scientific knowledge confronts the pragmatic realities of politics? This project will investigate that question by examining in detail how the evidence-building process for policy works within Whitehall and beyond. This is of particular importance as new technologies, such as the use of advanced statistics and machine learning, become prevalent in policy decisions. Relevant examples from current policy decisions, including the development of quantitative techniques within the project, will be central to examining such questions.

新冠疫情大流行进一步凸显了公共政策制定过程中长期存在的一些潜在紧张局势。其中包括： 专业知识的性质及其对决策过程的影响；数据和证据在决策中的适当作用；以及如何以“良好的政治”的方式最好地平衡政治需要，也将带来“良好的政策”。科学涉及复杂性、概率和风险建模。政治依赖于确定性的预测。那么，当科学知识固有的模糊性面对政治的务实现实时，会发生什么？该项目将通过详细研究白厅内外的政策证据构建流程如何运作来调查这个问题。随着先进统计和机器学习等新技术在政策决策中的普遍使用，这一点尤为重要。当前政策决策中的相关例子，包括项目内定量技术的开发，将是研究这些问题的核心。