Analysing the effect of bus service quality improvements on transport energy demand using micro-scale models

使用微观模型分析公交服务质量改善对交通能源需求的影响

• 批准号: 2746466
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: University of Leeds
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Studentship
• 财政年份: 2022
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2022 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=studentship-2746466
• 关键词: Analysing; effect; bus; service; quality

Socioeconomic and behavioural factors are vital drivers of energy demand and yet are seldom accounted for in transport-energy models. Transport energy models tend to be technocentric and static in their approach to behaviour, despite evidence suggesting that dramatic changes on the demand side are needed to meet emission reduction targets. Beyond new methods, the scale of the challenge indicates that new frameworks are needed. This research proposes to develop a reproducible and scalable methodology for (a) estimating the quantity and spatial distribution of emissions and energy demand from urban transport and (b) modelling the impact of targeted local interventions on mode shift, emissions and energy demand in UK counties. The results will provide a solid evidence base to support Passenger Transport Executives or Combined Authorities in the UK to decarbonise transport systems nationwide. More specifically, the research will attempt to answer the following question:To what extent can improvements in bus service quality lead to a reduction in transport energy demand through a mode shift away from private car travel?In doing so, the following sub-questions will be explored:1. What categorisation of individuals and neighbourhoods can be created based on combinations of factors such as socioeconomic characteristics, mode choice, travel patterns, and structural constraints to travel?2. How can activity-based models be used to estimate energy demand and emissions from passenger transport at an individual level?3. How can local bus networks be improved to encourage a mode shift away from cars? How can mode shift associated with said improvements be modelled realistically by accounting for behavioural factors? How can scenario modelling be used to compare mode shift and associated energy demand reduction resulting from different service quality improvements in the local bus network?

社会经济和行为因素是能源需求的重要驱动因素，但在运输能源模型中很少得到考虑。尽管有证据表明需求方需要发生巨大变化才能实现减排目标，但运输能源模型的行为方式往往以技术为中心且静态。除了新方法之外，挑战的规模表明还需要新的框架。本研究建议开发一种可重复且可扩展的方法，用于 (a) 估计城市交通排放和能源需求的数量和空间分布，以及 (b) 模拟有针对性的地方干预措施对英国各县模式转变、排放和能源需求的影响。研究结果将为支持英国客运主管部门或联合当局在全国范围内实现交通系统脱碳提供坚实的证据基础。更具体地说，该研究将试图回答以下问题：公交服务质量的提高在多大程度上可以通过私家车出行模式的转变来减少交通能源需求？在此过程中，以下子问题将得到解决：待探讨：1．根据社会经济特征、模式选择、出行模式和出行结构限制等因素的组合，可以对个人和社区进行哪些分类？2.如何使用基于活动的模型来估计个体层面的能源需求和客运排放？3。如何改善当地公交网络以鼓励人们放弃汽车出行？如何通过考虑行为因素来对与上述改进相关的模式转变进行实际建模？如何使用场景建模来比较本地公交网络中不同服务质量改进带来的模式转变和相关能源需求减少？