PROBABILISTIC THINKING AND ECONOMIC BEHAVIOR

概率思维和经济行为

• 批准号: 6991906
• 负责人: ROBERT J WILLIS
• 金额: $ 28.71万
• 依托单位: UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN AT ANN ARBOR
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2005
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2005-07-01 至 2008-06-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/6991906
• 关键词: aging; behavioral /social science research tag; belief; clinical research; data collection methodology /evaluation; data quality /integrity; decision making; epidemiology; experience; human middle age (35-64); human old age (65+); human subject; population survey; retirement; socioeconomics; thinking; aging; behavioral /social science research tag; belief; clinical research; data collection methodology /evaluation; data quality /integrity; decision making; epidemiology; experience; human middle age (35-64); human old age (65+); human subject; population survey; retirement; socioeconomics; thinking

Probability beliefs play a central role in forward-looking models of decision-making. Examples of probability beliefs that may affect individual decisions related to aging include beliefs about the mortality risks that a person faces and beliefs about the future value of retirement portfolios of stocks, bonds, and social security benefits. Economists have often assumed that researchers and persons alike make accurate probabilistic predictions of future events. However, there is much reason to be skeptical of this rational expectations assumption and, consequently, good reason to measure beliefs directly. The Health and Retirement Study (HRS) has pioneered asking questions about subjective probability beliefs on a wide variety of topics, including general events (e.g., economic depression, stock market prices, weather); events with personal information (e.g., survival to a given age, entry into a nursing home), events with personal control (e.g., retirement, bequests). This project will utilize these data in conjunction with models of survey response and behavior under uncertainty to address four related questions: 1. How are responses to probability questions on surveys related to the probability beliefs of respondents? 2. What is the correspondence between the probability beliefs of respondents and the objective risks they face? 3. How do people form their subjective probability beliefs and how are these beliefs affected by experience? 4. How do probability beliefs affect decisions?

概率信念在前瞻性决策模型中起着核心作用。可能影响与老龄化有关的个人决策的概率信念的例子包括有关人面临的死亡率风险的信念，以及对股票，债券和社会保障福利的退休投资组合的未来价值的信念。经济学家经常假设研究人员和人都对未来事件做出准确的概率预测。但是，有很多理由怀疑这种理性期望的假设，因此，直接衡量信念的充分理由。卫生和退休研究（HRS）率先提出了有关各种主题的主观概率信念的问题，包括一般事件（例如经济萧条，股票市场价格，天气）；带有个人信息的事件（例如，生存到特定年龄，进入疗养院），具有个人控制的事件（例如，退休，遗赠）。该项目将结合使用这些数据 在不确定性下的调查响应和行为模型，以解决四个相关问题： 1。对调查的概率问题的回答与受访者的概率信念有关？ 2。受访者的概率信念与他们面临的客观风险之间的对应关系是什么？ 3。人们如何形成他们的主观概率信念，以及这些信念如何受经验影响？ 4.概率信念如何影响决策？