ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT EFFECTS ON DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE

经济发展对人口变化的影响

• 批准号: 6627364
• 负责人: MARK R ROSENZWEIG
• 金额: $ 17.11万
• 依托单位: HARVARD UNIVERSITY
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 1993
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1993-09-01 至 2005-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/6627364
• 关键词: India; behavioral /social science research tag; continuing education; data collection methodology /evaluation; decision making; employment /unemployment; family structure /dynamics; fertility; gender difference; household; human data; human mortality; human population growth; human population study; model design /development; social change; social model; socioeconomics; socioenvironment

In this proposed project continuation multi-level and longitudinal household data from a large national probability sample of over 4500 rural households in India covering the period 1968-1981, merged with supplementary area-specific data on programs and environmental characteristics, will be used to examine comprehensively the effects of economic development and program interventions on population change. The multi-level and longitudinal aspects of the data will be exploited to i) identify the mechanisms by which economic growth propelled by agricultural technological change and program interventions alter fertility and mortality and ii) to assess the ability of the estimates to explain the evolution of the population over time and across areas. New survey data will be collected which will extend the household panel to 1999 and provide new information on household division, household formation and intrafamily economic ties. The 30-year survey will document a period of time in India which conforms closely to a natural experiment in which the source of economic development, the introduction and improvement of high-yielding seed varieties, exogenously affected the wealth and incomes, the rates of return to schooling and wages and prices in areas of India in which the new seeds could be grown. The data will be used to study the impact of economic development on fertility and "unwanted births" using dynamic models, with particular attention to (i) the effects of the changing returns to schooling, (ii) the role and diffusion of contraceptive information and costs, and (iii) the effects of the physical environment and how it is publicly managed. A major project focus will also be on quantifying the effects of economic change on gender differences in schooling, mortality, and influence on household decisions, and on household structure and organization that incorporate and extend new models of household decision-making. The results of the project will provide quantitative evidence on the relative importance of economic growth, technological change and increased investments in human resource programs in affecting demographic change.

在这个拟议的项目延续中，多层次和纵向 来自4500多个国家概率样本的家庭数据 印度的农村家庭涵盖了1968 - 1981年的时期 有关计划和环境的补充区域数据 特征将用于全面检查 经济发展和计划干预人口变化。 数据的多层次和纵向方面将被利用 i）确定经济增长推动的机制 农业技术变革和计划干预措施改变 生育能力和死亡率以及ii）评估估计的能力 解释人口随着时间和整个地区的演变。 将收集新的调查数据，该数据将扩展家庭面板 到1999年，并提供有关家庭部门的新信息 形成和室内经济联系。这项30年的调查将 记录印度的一段时间，该时期与自然 经济发展来源的实验，引言 并改善高产种子品种，外源性 财富和收入，上学和工资的回报率以及 新种子可以种植的印度地区的价格。数据 将用于研究经济发展对生育的影响 和使用动态模型的“不需要的出生”，特别关注 （i）变化回报到学校的影响，（ii）角色和 避孕信息和成本的扩散，以及（iii）效果 物理环境及其公开管理。专业 项目重点也将在量化经济变化的影响方面 关于学校教育，死亡率和影响的性别差异 家庭决策，以及家庭结构和组织 合并并扩展家庭决策的新模型。这 该项目的结果将提供有关该项目的定量证据 经济增长，技术变革和 增加对人力资源计划的投资 人口变化。