POPULATION GROWTH, ECONOMIC CHANGE & FOREST DEGRADATION

人口增长、经济变化

• 批准号: 2207075
• 负责人: MARK R ROSENZWEIG
• 金额: $ 21.39万
• 依托单位: UNIVERSITY OF PENNSYLVANIA
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 1995
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1995-09-22 至 1997-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/2207075
• 关键词: India; agriculture; ecosystem; family planning; family sizes; fertility; human data; human population dynamics; longitudinal human study; population survey; socioeconomics; socioenvironment

In this proposed project we will develop and use an integrated theoretical framework using a newly assembled demographic-economic- environmental data set to undertake a comprehensive analysis of the interrelations among population growth, economic development, and land use patterns in India. In articular, we will estimate the effects of population growth and the large agricultural productivity increases induced by the importation of new seed varieties associated with the "green revolution" on the changes in forest area and forest density in India, as mediated by changes in prices of labor and land nd governmental policies, over the period 1970 through 1982. In addition, feedback effects of changes n the environment, as measured by temperature shifts and forested area, on land values and on fertility will also be estimated. The data base for the project integrates micro information on demographic and economic outcomes from a newly-available multi-level and longitudinal household data set from a large national probability sample of over 4000 rural households residing in 250 villages in India (rural households represented 82% of all households in India as of 1961 and 76% in 1981) covering the period 968-1981, area-specific information on programs, prices, land use (including forest area and density), temperature, and rainfall, based on weather-station records, governmental surveys and satellite information. We will exploit the multi-level and longitudinal aspects of the data not only to identify the mechanisms by which population, economic growth propelled by technical change, and program interventions alter land use patterns but to assess the ability of the estimates to explain the evolution of these outcomes over time and across areas. The data will also be used to quantify the effects of educations in forest area and temperature changes potentially induced by global warming on agricultural productivity and on fertility rates, to test for the existence and potential effects of population externally associated with public land use regulation and incomplete factor markets, and to identify potential interventions that may affect the environmental impact of population growth on forest degradation. The results of the project will provide quantitative evidence on the relative importance of economic growth nd increased population size in affecting environmental change.

在这个拟议的项目中，我们将开发和使用集成的 理论框架使用新组装的人口经济学 - 环境数据集，以对 人口增长，经济发展和土地之间的相互关系 在印度使用模式。在关节中，我们将估计 人口增长和大量农业生产率提高 由与 关于森林地区和森林密度变化的“绿色革命” 印度，由劳动力和土地ND政府价格的变化所介绍 政策，在1970年至1982年期间。此外，反馈 通过温度变化衡量的变化n的影响 和森林地区，土地价值和生育能力也将是 估计的。该项目的数据库集成了有关的微观信息 来自新的多层次的人口和经济成果 来自大型国家概率样本的纵向家庭数据集 印度250个村庄的4000多个农村家庭（农村） 截至1961年，家庭占印度所有家庭的82％和76％ 1981年）涵盖了968-1981期间的特定区域信息 计划，价格，土地使用（包括森林面积和密度）， 温度和降雨，根据天气站记录，政府 调查和卫星信息。我们将利用多层次和 数据的纵向方面不仅可以通过 哪些人口，技术变革推动的经济增长以及 计划干预措施改变了土地使用模式，但要评估能力 在解释这些结果随着时间的流逝的估计中的估计和 跨区域。数据还将用于量化 森林地区的教育和温度变化可能引起 全球对农业生产率和生育率的变暖， 测试外部人口的存在和潜在影响 与公共土地使用法规和不完全因素市场相关， 并确定可能影响环境的潜在干预措施 人口增长对森林退化的影响。结果 项目将提供有关相对重要性的定量证据 经济增长和影响环境的人口规模增加 改变。