EFFECTS OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ON DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE

经济发展对人口变化的影响

• 批准号: 2203249
• 负责人: MARK R ROSENZWEIG
• 金额: $ 26.69万
• 依托单位: UNIVERSITY OF PENNSYLVANIA
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 1993
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1993-09-01 至 1997-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/2203249
• 关键词: India; household; human data; human population study; model design /development; social change; social model; socioeconomics

In this project we use newly-available multi-level and longitudinal household data from a large national probability sample of over 4000 rural households in India covering the period 1968-1981, merged with supplementary area-specific data, to examine comprehensively the effects of economic development and program interventions on demographic and social change. We will exploit the multi-level and longitudinal aspects of the data to identify the mechanisms by which economic growth and program interventions alter a variety of related demographic outcomes and to assess the ability of the estimates to explain the evolution of these outcomes over time and across areas. The survey documents a period of time in India which conforms closely to a natural experiment in which the source of economic development, the introduction and improvement of high- yielding seed varieties, exogenously affected the wealth and incomes, the rates of return to schooling and wages and prices in areas of India in which the new seeds could be grown. The data will be used to quantify and compare across districts in India differentially exposed to the opportunities presented by the new technologies the level and change in rural fertility, mortality, labor force participation, schooling, and household structure. Based on econometric analyses of dynamic models, the mechanisms by which economic development affects these demographic outcomes, such as by changing rates of return to schooling or altering the productive values of children's and women's time, will also be identified. The data will also be used to measure the impact of education, health and family planning programs, net of changes in economic opportunities, on fertility, contraceptive efficacy, mortality and schooling using methods that will take into account the non-random distribution of the programs. The results of the project will provide quantitative evidence on the relative importance of economic growth and increased investments in human resource programs in affecting demographic change.

在这个项目中，我们使用新的多层次和纵向 来自4000多个国家概率样本的家庭数据 印度的农村家庭涵盖了1968 - 1981年的时期 补充领域特定的数据，全面检查效果 关于人口统计和计划干预的经济发展和计划干预 社会变革。我们将利用多层次和纵向方面 数据以确定经济增长和 计划干预改变了各种相关的人口结果， 评估估计解释这些演变的能力 随着时间和跨区的成果。调查记录了一个时期 在印度的时间与自然实验紧密相符 经济发展的来源，引入和改善高 产生种子品种，外源影响财富和收入， 印度地区的上学和工资和价格的回报率 新种子可以种植。 数据将用于量化 并比较印度各地的区域 新技术提供的机会随着水平和变化的变化 农村的生育能力，死亡率，劳动力参与，上学和 家庭结构。 基于动态模型的计量经济学分析 经济发展影响这些人口的机制 成果，例如通过改变返回上学的速度或更改 儿童和女性时代的生产价值也将是 确定。 数据还将用于衡量 教育，健康和计划生育计划，变更 经济机会，生育能力，避孕功效，死亡率 和使用将考虑非随机的方法的教育 程序的分布。 该项目的结果将提供 关于经济增长的相对重要性的定量证据和 在影响人口的人力资源计划中增加了投资 改变。