POPULATION MODELS OF FACTORS AFFECTING HEALTH TRENDS

影响健康趋势因素的人口模型

• 批准号: 6372469
• 负责人: Kenneth G. Manton
• 金额: $ 84.37万
• 依托单位: DUKE UNIVERSITY
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2000
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2000-04-01 至 2005-03-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/6372469
• 关键词: Medicare /Medicaid; behavioral /social science research tag; human data; human old age (65+); human population dynamics

This Program Project is designed to examine the recent changes in chronic disability and functioning in the U.S. elderly populations, possible sources of those changes including the introduction of the Medicare program and, more recent, biomedical research and therapeutic innovations and the future Medicare service use and cost implications of those changes and the processes underlying them. The work builds upon a significant body of research done at CDS on the analysis and forecasting of chronic disability and health changes in the U.S. elderly population. However, that model needs to be significantly expanded in scope of adding input from economists detailed analyses of Medicare expenditures, and a more in depth analysis of specific omp0onents of health changes (e.g., dementia, stroke). To perform these analysis we have assembled a multi-disciplinary team to carry out a well integrated set of analyses. To conduct those analyses one first defines three core functions. The first (A) is longitudinally linked files but also continuous linked Medicare records which will be kept current as the project is underway (i.e., we should have Medicare data from 1999 in hand with data for 2000 shortly available thereafter; later data will be available to 2001). The third core (C) will make general health forecasts. The four projects involve (1) methodological expansion of the health model to include data from multiple sources; (2) analysis of cohort different in health and Medicare service use; (3) analyses of the natural history of Medicare expenditures; (4) analyses of the recent changes in dementia and stroke and their health cost implications These projects are all designed to take advantage of the three cores and to be integrated so that their results will help resolve the basic questions.

该计划项目旨在研究美国老年人口的慢性残疾和功能的最新变化，这些变化的可能来源，包括引入Medicare计划，以及最近的生物医学研究和治疗性创新以及未来的Medicare服务使用以及对这些变化的成本含义以及这些变化的成本含义以及这些变化的过程。这项工作基于在CD上进行的大量研究，以分析和预测美国老年人口的慢性残疾和健康变化。但是，在增加经济学家的详细分析的医疗保险支出分析以及对健康变化的特定影响（例如，痴呆症，中风）的深入分析中，需要显着扩展该模型。为了进行这些分析，我们组装了一个多学科团队，以进行一组良好的分析集。进行这些分析，首先定义了三个核心功能。第一个（a）是纵向链接的文件，但也连续链接的Medicare记录，随着项目的进行，该记录将保持最新（即，我们应该从1999年提供Medicare数据，此后不久可提供2000年的数据；后来的数据将提供2001年）。第三核（C）将进行一般健康预测。这四个项目涉及（1）健康模型的方法论扩展，以包括来自多个来源的数据； （2）对健康和医疗保险服务使用不同的队列分析； （3）分析医疗保险支出的自然历史； （4）对痴呆和中风最近发生变化及其健康成本影响的分析这些项目旨在利用这三个核心并进行整合，以便它们的结果将有助于解决基本问题。