Aerosol pollution impacts on climate projections

气溶胶污染对气候预测的影响

基本信息

批准号：
1935152
负责人：
金额：
--
依托单位：
University of Leeds
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Studentship
财政年份：
2017
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2017 至无数据
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=studentship-1935152
关键词：
Aerosol pollution impacts climate projections

项目摘要

The Met Office is tasked with providing up to date information on how climate change will impact the UK. A key part of this task is understanding and exploring current uncertainties in climate processes and what they imply for projected future climate. This PhD project will explore and quantify the effect of large uncertainties related to how aerosol pollution affects climate. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimates that changes in aerosols over the industrial period have caused a radiative forcing of between -0.1 to -2 W/m2. This large cooling effect is comparable in magnitude to the warming effect of greenhouse gases, so aerosol pollution is a major driver of climate change. The uncertainty surrounding aerosols influences future climate projections in two ways. First, it influences how well we understand simulated historical climate, which directly affects our confidence in future projections. Second, there are likely to be rapid reductions in aerosol pollution over the next 2-4 decades, which will strongly influence how the warming will accelerate.The project will use large ensembles of model simulations combined with extensive observational data from ground sites, ships, aircraft and satellites to narrow the uncertainty in model simulations and climate projections.This is a collaborative project with the Met Office "Understanding Climate Change" department, co-supervised by Dr Ben Booth. The project would suit students who are interested in pursuing a career in climate sciences, as well as maths and computing students who want to apply their skills to challenging new problems.The main research question are:1) What are the main causes of uncertainty in aerosol effects on regional and global climate?2) How much can the uncertainty realistically be reduced by constraining aerosol and cloud model processes using observations?3) What effect does narrowing the range of aerosol forcing considered plausible imply for future projections? Are some of the projected changes more plausible than others?The research is related to the next update of the UK Climate Projections in 2018 (UK18). The Met Office will release climate data that will inform the UK's 3rd national Climate Change Risk Assessment. The project will provide a wider context on the plausibility of the range of aerosol processes in the UK18 projections, and identify model-observed comparisons that can be used in updates to projections beyond 2018.

大都会办公室的任务是提供有关气候变化将如何影响英国的最新信息。该任务的关键部分是理解和探索气候过程中当前的不确定性以及预计未来气候的意义。该博士学位项目将探索并量化与气雾剂污染如何影响气候有关的大型不确定性的影响。政府间的气候变化估计，在工业时期气溶胶的变化导致辐射强迫在-0.1至-2 w/m2之间。这种较大的冷却效果与温室气体的变暖作用相当，因此气溶胶污染是气候变化的主要驱动力。围绕气溶胶的不确定性通过两种方式影响未来的气候预测。首先，它影响了我们如何理解模拟历史气候，这直接影响了我们对未来预测的信心。其次，在接下来的2-4年中，气溶胶污染可能会迅速减少，这将强烈影响变暖的加速如何加速。该项目将使用大型模型模拟组合以及从地面站点，船舶，飞机，飞机和卫星的大量观察数据结合在一起的大量观察数据，以缩小模型模拟和气候投影的不确定性。 Ben Booth博士。该项目适合那些有兴趣从事气候科学事业的学生，以及想要将技能运用到挑战新问题的技能的数学和计算学生。主要的研究问题是：1）：1）在气溶胶对区域和全球气候的不确定性影响的不确定性的主要原因是什么？被认为是合理的暗示未来预测？某些预计的变化是否比其他变化更合理？该研究与2018年英国气候预测的下一次更新有关（UK18）。大都会办公室将发布气候数据，将为英国的第三个国家气候变化风险评估提供信息。该项目将提供有关UK18预测中气雾剂过程范围的合理性的更广泛背景，并确定可用于模型的比较，这些比较可用于2018年以后的预测更新。