Satellite Radiation Risk Forecasts (Sat-Risk)

卫星辐射风险预测（Sat-Risk）

基本信息

批准号：
NE/V002759/2
负责人：
Clare Emily Jane Watt
金额：
$ 8.86万
依托单位：
Northumbria University
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Research Grant
财政年份：
2020
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2020 至无数据
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FV002759%2F2
关键词：
Satellite Radiation Risk Forecasts Sat

项目摘要

Our society relies on satellites more than ever before, from the use of mobile phones to broadcasting and Earth observation. The use of GPS navigation, positioning and timing signals has grown considerably and we now use these signals in ways that were never foreseen, for example in agriculture and stock market trading. The modern world has also become more connected and built up dependencies that are no longer clearly identifiable. It is therefore essential that we take every reasonable precaution to ensure that satellites are protected.Space Weather poses one of the most important threats to satellites in orbit, primarily through radiation exposure. Radiation exposure can increase within a few minutes, by a ten thousand fold or more, and remain high for days, even months. For example, in 2003 during a large space weather event known as the Halloween storm radiation levels were highly disturbed and approximately 10% of the entire satellite fleet were affected by satellite anomalies (malfunctions) leading to service interruption and in one case the complete loss of a scientific satellite costing $640 million (Cannon et al., 2013). In 2012 the UK Government recognised the importance of space weather as a low frequency high impact event and included it on the National Risk Register (Cabinet Office, 2012). This was revised in 2017 with a recommendation for more investment into forecasting as a means of mitigating the impact. More recent research suggests that with current forecasting capability the loss of gross domestic product to the UK would be around £2.9 billion but with more investment in enhanced forecasting this could be reduced to £0.9 billion (Oughton et al., 2019). The purpose of this proposal is to provide enhanced forecasting to help reduce the impact on satellites. Currently there are over 2,200 operational satellites in orbit (December 2019).This proposal brings together scientists from across the UK with stakeholders from the UK Met Office. The goal is to develop a real-time system to forecast radiation exposure to satellites for a range of different orbits, and quantify the risk of damage or degradation. We will do this by taking research models of the Earth's radiation belts - regions of high energy electrons and protons trapped by the external geomagnetic field and which circulate around the Earth - and turn them into operational forecasting models. The models will use real-time data from ground and space to forecast radiation exposure up to 24 hours ahead for different orbits, including geostationary orbit, Low Earth orbit and medium Earth orbit. It will also include data on radiation storms and cosmic rays. The particle radiation levels will then be used to calculate the damaging radiation effects on electronic components and solar arrays and compared to design guidelines to assess the risk of damage. The project will also include four research elements which are specifically targeted at reducing the uncertainty in the forecasts. The project will deliver a world leading forecasting capability for the Met Office that will help satellite operators take mitigating action, help satellite designers develop more resilient design and space insurance reduce the risk of loss. It will also support the growth of the satellite industry and the UK National Risk Register.1. Cannon, P, S., et al. (2013), Extreme Space Weather: Impacts on Engineered Systems and Infrastructure, Royal Academy of Engineering, London, SW1A 2WH.2. Cabinet Office, (2012), National risk register of civil emergencies, Whitehall, London SW1A 2WH, www.cabinetoffice.gov.uk3. Oughton et al., (2019), A Risk Assessment Framework for the Socioeconomic Impacts of Electricity Transmission Infrastructure Failure Due to Space Weather: An Application to the United Kingdom, Risk Analysis, https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.13229

我们的社会比以往任何时候都更加依赖卫星，从移动电话的使用到广播和地球观测，GPS 导航、定位和授时信号的使用已大大增加，我们现在以前所未有的方式使用这些信号。现代世界的联系也变得更加紧密，并且建立了不再清晰可辨的依赖关系，因此我们必须采取一切合理的预防措施来确保卫星受到保护。空间天气是最重要的威胁之一。对在轨卫星的重要威胁，主要是通过辐射暴露可以在几分钟内增加一万倍或更多，并在数天甚至数月内保持较高水平，例如，在 2003 年的一次大型太空天气事件（称为万圣节风暴）期间，辐射水平受到高度干扰。整个卫星群中大约 10% 受到卫星异常（故障）的影响，导致服务中断，在一个案例中，一颗科学卫星完全丢失，成本达 6.4 亿美元（Cannon 等人，2013 年）。 2012 年，英国政府认识到空间天气作为低频高影响事件的重要性，并将其纳入国家风险登记册（内阁办公室，2012 年），并于 2017 年对其进行了修订，并建议对预测进行更多投资，作为缓解措施。最近的研究表明，根据目前的预测能力，英国的国内生产总值损失约为 29 亿英镑，但如果在增强预测方面进行更多投资，这一损失可能会减少至 9 亿英镑。（Ougton 等人，2019 年）该提案的目的是提供增强的预测，以帮助减少对卫星的影响（2019 年 12 月）。该提案汇集了来自英国各地的科学家。与英国气象局的利益相关者合作，目标是开发一个实时系统来预测一系列不同轨道的卫星辐射暴露，并量化损坏或退化的风险。地球辐射带（被外部地磁场捕获并在地球周围重新访问的高能电子和质子区域）的研究模型，并将其转化为可操作的预测模型，这些模型将使用来自地面和太空的实时数据进行预测。不同轨道（包括地球静止轨道、低地球轨道和中地球轨道）的提前 24 小时辐射暴露数据还将包括有关辐射风暴和宇宙射线的数据，然后将使用粒子辐射水平来计算破坏性辐射。该项目还将包括四项研究内容，专门针对减少预测的不确定性。英国气象局将帮助卫星运营商采取缓解措施，帮助卫星设计者开发更具弹性的设计和空间保险，以降低损失风险。它还将支持卫星行业和英国国家风险登记册的发展。1。 S.，等人。 (2013)，极端空间天气：对工程系统和基础设施的影响，皇家工程院，伦敦，SW1A 2WH.2，内阁办公室，(2012)，国家民事紧急情况风险登记册，白厅，伦敦 SW1A 2WH，www.cabinetoffice。 .gov.uk3. Ougton 等人，(2019)，空间天气导致的输电基础设施故障的社会经济影响的风险评估框架：一个应用前往英国，风险分析，https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.13229

项目成果

期刊论文数量（10）

专著数量（0）

科研奖励数量（0）

会议论文数量（0）

专利数量（0）

What are the fundamental modes of energy transfer and partitioning in the coupled Magnetosphere-Ionosphere system?

磁层-电离层耦合系统中能量传递和分配的基本模式是什么？

DOI：
10.1007/s10686-022-09861-w
发表时间：
2022-09-22
期刊：
Experimental Astronomy
影响因子：
3
作者：
J. Rae;C. Forsyth;M. Dunlop;M. Palmroth;M. Lester;R. Friedel;G. Reeves;L. Kepko;Lucille Turc;C. Watt;W. Hajdas;T. Sarris;Yoshifumi Saito;O. Santolík;Y. Shprits;Chi Wang;A. Marchaudon;M. Berthomier;O. Marghitu;B. Hubert;M. Volwerk;E. Kronberg;I. Mann;K. Murphy;D. Miles;Z. Yao;A. Fazakerley;J. S;hu;hu;H. Allison;Q. Shi
通讯作者：
Q. Shi

Electron Diffusion and Advection During Nonlinear Interactions With Whistler-Mode Waves

与惠斯勒模式波非线性相互作用期间的电子扩散和平流