Forecasting Eruptions at Volcanoes after Extended Repose

预测火山长期休眠后的喷发

基本信息

批准号：
NE/X000133/1
负责人：
Christopher Kilburn
金额：
$ 91万
依托单位：
University College London
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Research Grant
财政年份：
2023
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2023 至无数据
项目状态：
未结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FX000133%2F1
关键词：
Forecasting Eruptions Volcanoes after Extended

项目摘要

FEVER: Forecasting Eruptions at Volcanoes after Extended Repose. Summary.The overarching goals of Project FEVER are to understand how volcanoes reawaken after generations at rest and to devise more reliable methods for forecasting eruptions. Most eruptions from long-quiescent volcanoes occur in Low-to-Middle Income Countries, where they jeopardize some of the world's most vulnerable populations. The threat is under-estimated because long intervals without eruption often result in a volcano being unmonitored and for the memories of previous activity to have faded. As a result, when unrest returns, forecasts of eruption must rely on measurements obtained from hastily-installed monitoring networks. The forecasts are uncertain - a feature that hinders mitigation measures and diminishes the trust of vulnerable communities. A compelling social need therefore exists for reliable forecasts of eruptions at long-quiescent volcanoes, using emergency data obtained after the start of unrest.Small local earthquakes and ground movement are the most reliable methods for monitoring a reawakening volcano. They measure how a volcano stretches and fractures when it is put under pressure by molten rock, or magma, attempting to reach the surface. It has long been recognised that changes in these signals contain important clues about the approach of an eruption. However, judging when the changes have become critical is heavily influenced by personal experience, so that forecasting is still as much an art as it is a science. We aim to make eruption forecasts more reliable by taking advantage of the fact that volcanoes seal up their magmatic systems during long intervals of repose. In such cases, a new eruption must be preceded by the volcanic edifice again breaking itself open to allow magma to escape. Rupture occurs under a restricted range of physical conditions, which promotes repeatable patterns of deformation and fracture that can be detected at the surface. We argue that these patterns can be used to determine the stability of a volcano and, because they depend on physical conditions that we can quantify, will allow forecasts to be less subjective than at present and also to be made far enough in advance to be of practical value. We have supporting evidence that our goals are feasible from a new model that we have developed to describe how rock within and below volcanoes can trigger earthquakes while being stretched. The next steps are to test our methods under controlled conditions during rock-physics experiments in the laboratory. The results will allow us to connect field data to stress in the crust and, from this, to calculate how much more unrest is needed before the crust will break. Once the model has been fully tested, we will transform it into a robust and objective method for forecasting rupture before eruptions. Our investigations will be performed by an international team built around a long-standing UK collaboration between volcanologists at University College London and experimental rock physicists at the University of Portsmouth. Our partners are the Seismic Research Centre of the University of the West Indies, which is responsible for monitoring volcanoes across the English-speaking Caribbean, and the Vesuvius Observatory, which is the world's oldest volcano observatory and monitors the volcanoes around Naples in southern Italy. Together, we will incorporate our results into existing emergency procedures to force a step change in the reliability of real-time forecasts of the state of volcanoes before eruption.

发烧：延长静止后火山的爆发。摘要。项目发烧的总体目标是了解几代后的火山如何唤醒，并设计了更可靠的方法来预测喷发。长期火山的大多数爆发发生在低到中型收入的国家，在那里危害世界上一些最脆弱的人口。威胁被低估了，因为没有喷发的长时间间隔通常会导致火山不受监控，并且要记忆以前的活动逐渐消失。结果，当动乱返回时，喷发的预测必须依赖于急速安装的监视网络获得的测量值。预测不确定 - 这项功能妨碍缓解措施并减少脆弱社区的信任。因此，使用在动乱开始后获得的紧急数据，对长期散发火山的爆发预测存在着令人信服的社会需求。MALL当地地震和地面运动是监测恢复火山的最可靠的方法。他们测量火山在试图到达地面的熔融岩石或岩浆压力下施加压力时如何伸展和裂缝。长期以来，人们已经认识到，这些信号的变化包含有关喷发方法的重要线索。但是，判断变化何时变得批评会受到个人经验的严重影响，因此预测仍然是一门艺术，而不是一门科学。我们的目标是利用火山在长时间的安息间隔内密封其岩浆系统的事实，使喷发预测更加可靠。在这种情况下，必须先于火山大厦再次开放，以使岩浆逃脱。破裂发生在限制的物理条件范围内，从而促进了可以在表面检测到的可重复的变形和断裂模式。我们认为这些模式可用于确定火山的稳定性，并且由于它们取决于我们可以量化的物理条件，因此将使预测比目前更不那么主观，并且还可以提前足够远以具有实际价值。我们有支持证据表明，我们开发的新模型是可行的。接下来的步骤是在实验室的岩石物理学实验期间在受控条件下测试我们的方法。结果将使我们能够将现场数据连接到地壳中的压力，从此，在外壳破裂之前需要计算需要更多动荡。一旦对模型进行了充分的测试，我们将其转变为一种强大而客观的方法，用于预测喷发前的破裂。我们的调查将由一支国际团队围绕伦敦大学学院的火山学家与朴次茅斯大学的实验摇滚物理学家建立的国际团队进行。我们的合作伙伴是西印度群岛大学的地震研究中心，该中心负责监视整个讲英语的加勒比海的火山，而Vesuvius天文台是世界上最古老的火山天文台，并监视了意大利南部餐巾周围的火山。我们将共同将结果纳入现有的紧急程序中，以迫使爆发前火山状态的实时预测的可靠性变化。