Volcanoscope: Scoping study for increasing resilience to hazards in volcanic regions

火山镜：提高火山地区灾害抵御能力的范围界定研究

• 批准号: NE/I017984/1
• 负责人: Christopher Kilburn
• 金额: $ 2.76万
• 依托单位: University College London
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2010
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2010 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FI017984%2F1
• 关键词: Volcanoscope; Scoping; study; increasing; resilience; Volcanoscope; Scoping; study; increasing; resilience

Project VOLCANOSCOPE will evaluate strategies (1) for applying existing and new forecasting models to volcanic eruptions, and (2) for identifying methods to improve how forecasts are communicated effectively to vulnerable communities. To link forecasting and communication, the interdisciplinary study will assess how to engage all stakeholders - from monitoring scientists, through emergency agencies, to vulnerable communities - to optimize the understanding of forecasts among different end users. Effective forecasting aids resilience. A community's resilience to a hazard increases with its preparedness to respond under threat; preparedness is enhanced when a hazard can be forecast with enough time to allow a practical response; and forecasts are effective when their uncertainty can be assessed and when they are communicated in a manner readily understood by those who are responding to an emergency. Increasing the effectiveness of forecasts is especially urgent at volcanoes that have not erupted for several generations, because (1) the threatened communities are likely to have little or no experience of volcanic unrest, and (2) long repose intervals normally precede large explosive eruptions, which expel a cubic kilometre or more of magma within 24-48 hours and are among the most damaging volcanic events in the historical record. The precursors most-commonly recorded before eruptions are changes in the rates of ground movement and of occurrence of local earthquakes (high-frequency or volcano-tectonic (VT) events). They are also observed before giant, catastrophic slope collapse, which may involve the entire flank of a volcano and which can occur with or without an eruption. This study will investigate the factors that limit the reliability and effective communication of forecasts of eruptions or collapse, and so identify methods for enhancing: 1. The potential for deformation and seismic-event rates to yield short-term forecasts of practical value for responding to eruptions and major slope instability after long repose intervals (~100 years or more); 2. The information needs of vulnerable communities as perceived by the communities themselves and by specialist organisations from outside those communities.

火山镜项目将评估策略（1），以将现有和新的预测模型应用于火山喷发，以及（2）识别方法以改善如何有效传达预测的方法，以有效地传达弱势社区。为了链接预测和沟通，跨学科研究将评估如何吸引所有利益相关者（从监视科学家到紧急机构，到弱势社区），以优化对不同最终用户中预测的理解。有效的预测有助于弹性。社区对危害的韧性随着威胁的响应做出的准备而增加；预测危险的时间有足够的时间以允许实际响应时，准备就可以增强。当预测可以评估不确定性以及以一种对紧急情况回应的人轻易理解的方式进行交流时，预测是有效的。在几代人没有爆发的​​火山上，提高预测的有效性尤其紧急，因为（1）受威胁的社区很少或没有火山爆发的经验，并且（2）长时间的休息时间间隔通常在大型爆炸性爆发之前，在24-8个小时内的岩浆和更多的历史上，在24-88小时内驱散了历史上的历史，并在历史上进行了数字降落的数量。在喷发前记录的前体是地面运动速率和局部地震发生率的变化（高频或火山施用（VT）事件）。还可以在巨大的灾难性斜率塌陷之前观察到它们，这可能涉及火山的整个侧面，并且可以在有或不进行爆发的情况下发生。这项研究将研究限制喷发或崩溃预测的可靠性和有效交流的因素，因此确定了增强方法的方法：1。变形和地震事件发生率的潜力，以产生短期预测的实际价值预测，以应对爆发和大斜率不稳定的响应，并在长期重复的间隔后（〜100年或更多）（〜100年）； 2。社区本身以及这些社区外部专业组织所感知的脆弱社区的信息需求。