The future of Arctic sea ice

北极海冰的未来

• 批准号: NE/X000079/1
• 负责人: Daniel Feltham
• 金额: $ 65.14万
• 依托单位: University of Reading
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2022
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2022 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FX000079%2F1
• 关键词: future; Arctic; sea; ice

Anthropogenic climate change is destroying the Arctic sea ice cover. The ice loss is erratic (variable), but scientists agree the perennial Arctic ice cover will not survive this century. The sea ice cover is a partial barrier to exchanges of heat, water, and momentum between the air above and the ocean on which it floats. The reduction in sea ice is having, and is expected to continue to have, a dominant impact on local climate and ecology, and to affect extreme weather and global climate by modification of exchanges of heat and momentum in the atmosphere and ocean with lower (European) latitudes.Climate projections, generated using complex climate models, indicate that the Arctic Ocean will become seasonally ice free in the coming decades. However, these models underestimate the strength of the link between polar warming and sea ice loss; they only achieve observed rates of ice loss with unrealistic polar warming. Observations of the Arctic have improved in recent years with new satellites, e.g. IceSat-2 and CryoSat-2, measuring sea ice properties from space, and field experiments such as MOSAiC providing detailed measurements of sea ice physical processes. These show that Arctic sea ice is becoming thinner, less extensive, more fragmented, and more seasonal. Climate models of sea ice physics, built in a time of perennial ice, inadequately represent the seasonal, fragmented nature of the emerging ice cover. We will combine different satellite data products to provide estimates of the local sea ice mass budget. These measurements, among others, will be used to provide an unprecedently stringent test of sea ice models. We will enhance our sea ice models through the incorporation of representations of physical processes observed to be important in the seasonal ice cover physics, such as an evolving floe size distribution and advanced representation of frazil ice, both of which are already seen to play a leading role in the, more seasonal, Southern Ocean sea ice cover. This project will result in a necessary upgrade to model representation of Arctic sea ice.The new sea ice physics will be brought into a full climate model, which will be used to explore their impact on the ice cover of the past few decades, and their impact on decadal predictions. Our analysis of the climate simulations will utilise ideas we have explored in simpler, more idealised models and analysis of previous climate model simulations. Our aim is to produce more realistic simulations of Arctic sea ice trends and variability in the recent past and near future, as we approach a seasonally ice-free Arctic Ocean. This project will: (i) simulate the observed rates of Arctic sea ice loss in combination with the observed rates of Arctic warming; (ii) more tightly constrain when the Arctic Ocean will become seasonally ice free; and (iii) test the hypothesis that climate models' mismatch between rates of sea ice loss and Arctic warming is a consequence of inadequate physical representation of the modern Arctic sea ice cover.

人为气候变化正在破坏北极海冰覆盖。冰的损失是不稳定的（可变的），但是科学家认为多年生北极冰盖将无法生存本世纪。海冰覆盖物是在其上空的空气和浮出水面之间交换热量，水和动量的部分障碍。海冰的减少已经并且有望继续对当地的气候和生态学产生主要影响，并通过修改大气和海洋中的热量和动量的交流和较低（欧洲）的纬度的变化来影响极端天气和全球气候。气候预测，使用复杂的气候模型产生的气候预测表明，北极海洋将在即将来临的季节性的冰上冰上免费。但是，这些模型低估了极性变暖与海冰损失之间的联系的强度。他们只能通过不现实的极性变暖实现观察到的冰损。近年来，新卫星的观察结果有所改善，例如ICESAT-2和冷冻-2，测量了空间的海冰性能，以及诸如马赛克之类的现场实验，可提供对海冰物理过程的详细测量。这些表明，北极海冰变得越来越薄，越来越大，更零散，季节性更高。在多年生冰时建造的海冰物理学的气候模型不充分代表了新兴冰盖的季节性，分散的性质。我们将结合不同的卫星数据产品，以提供当地海冰量预算的估计。这些测量值以及其他测量值将用于对海冰模型的精确测试。我们将通过在季节性冰覆盖物理学中的物理过程的形式结合来增强海冰模型，例如不断发展的浮动尺寸分布和弗拉西尔冰的高级代表，这两种冰都已经在季节性的，更多的季节性，南方海洋冰盖中发挥了领导作用。该项目将导致必要的升级，以模拟北极海冰的模型。新的海冰物理学将被带入一个完整的气候模型，该模型将用于探索其对过去几十年的冰盖的影响及其对十年预测的影响。我们对气候模拟的分析将利用我们在更简单，更理想化的模型中探讨的想法以及对先前气候模型模拟的分析。我们的目的是在过去和不久的将来对北极海冰趋势和可变性进行更现实的模拟，因为我们接近季节性无冰的北极海洋。该项目将：（i）模拟观察到的北极海冰损失率与观察到的北极变暖速率； （ii）当北极海上无季节的冰冰时，更严格的约束； （iii）检验以下假设：气候模型在海冰损失和北极变暖率之间的不匹配是现代北极海冰覆盖物的物理表现不足的结果。