OCE-PRF: Quantifying the Chukchi Sea's role in modulating present and future changes of Pacific waters in the Arctic

OCE-PRF：量化楚科奇海在调节北极太平洋水域当前和未来变化中的作用

• 批准号: 2126646
• 负责人: Marion Alberty
• 金额: $ 33.55万
• 依托单位: Princeton University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2021
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2021-12-01 至 2024-11-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2126646&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: OCE; PRF; Quantifying; Chukchi; Sea

This award is funded in whole or in part under the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021 (Public Law 117-2).The Arctic is changing quickly as the ocean and atmosphere warm and sea ice shrinks. These changes impact the global climate, regional ecosystems, native communities, and geopolitical and economic decision-making. The sea ice loss has been greatest in the seas off the coast of Alaska, the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas. The majority of this loss is due to warming oceans in the region. Future sea ice loss will depend on how the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas gain heat. This work aims to create a detailed accounting of how heat moves through the Chukchi Sea from the Pacific Ocean before either being released to the atmosphere or entering into the Beaufort Sea. This work will use state-of-the-art climate models from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) to investigate both the current and future pathways of heat through this region. The scientific impact of this work is to provide important insights into how the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas have gained and will continue to gain heat. In addition, this work will also help improve future predictions of Arctic sea ice and ecosystem conditions, providing important information to the public, policy makers and industry. The Chukchi Sea is a key marginal sea in the Arctic where warming Pacific Waters are modified through surface fluxes before subducting below the Beaufort Gyre halocline. While a critically important region for understanding current climate and predicting future changes, it's exact role in modulating Pacific Water heat remains unclear. The scientific goals of this proposal are to determine the fate of Pacific Water heat using a closed heat budget of the Chukchi Sea, identify the physical processes that set the balance between heat budget terms and their time scales of variability, and quantify the role of sea ice in the Chukchi Sea's heat budget. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) coupled climate model, CM4.0, will be used to produce closed mean annual and seasonal heat budgets of the Chukchi Sea. These mean heat budgets will provide a framework for understanding the temporal variability of individual heat budget terms in past and future simulations and guide investigation into the physical processes responsible for modulating terms on a range of time scales, including the influence of Marine Heat Waves on ocean heat transport through the Bering Strait. Through analysis of CM4.0’s sea ice model, I propose to determine the role of sea ice extent and advection on the surface flux component of the Chukchi Sea heat budget. The scientific impact of this work is to provide important insights into how the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas have gained and will continue to gain heat. In addition, this work will also help improve future predictions of Arctic sea ice and ecosystem conditions, providing important information to the public, policy makers and industry.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

该奖项是根据2021年《美国救援计划法》的全部或部分资助的（公共法117-2）。随着海洋和大气温暖和海冰的缩水，北极正在迅速变化。这些变化会影响全球气候，区域生态系统，本地社区以及地缘政治和经济决策。在阿拉斯加沿海，Chukchi和Beaufort Sean海岸的海冰损失最大。这种损失的大部分是由于该地区的海洋变暖。未来的海冰损失将取决于Chukchi和Beaufort海洋如何增加热量。这项工作旨在详细说明热量如何从太平洋中从楚奇海移动，然后才能释放到大气层或进入博福特海。这项工作将使用来自国家海洋和大气管理局（NOAA）地球物理动力学实验室（GFDL）的最先进的气候模型来研究通过该地区热量的当前和未来途径。这项工作的科学影响是提供重要的见解，以了解chukchi和Beaufort海洋如何获得并将继续获得热量。此外，这项工作还将有助于改善对北极海冰和生态系统条件的未来预测，并向公众，政策制定者和行业提供重要信息。 Chukchi Sea是北极的关键边缘海，在Beaufort Gyre HaliCline下方俯冲之前，通过表面通量进行了变暖的太平洋水。尽管一个至关重要的区域是了解当前气候并预测未来的变化，但它在调节太平洋热量中的确切作用尚不清楚。该提案的科学目标是使用Chukchi Sea的封闭热预算来确定太平洋水热的命运，确定在热预算项和其变异性时间之间设定平衡的物理过程，并量化海冰在Chukchi Sea的热预算中的作用。国家海洋和大气管理局（NOAA）地球物理流体动力学实验室（GFDL）耦合气候模型CM4.0将用于生产楚科奇海的平均年度年度和季节性热预算。这些平均热预算将提供一个框架，以了解过去和将来的模拟中单个热预算条款的暂时变异性，并指导调查负责调节一系列时间尺度的物理过程，包括海上热浪对海洋热浪传输通过贝林海峡的影响。通过对CM4.0的海冰模型的分析，我建议确定海冰范围和广告在Chukchi Sea Heat预算的表面通量组件上的作用。这项工作的科学影响是提供重要的见解，以了解chukchi和Beaufort海洋如何获得并将继续获得热量。此外，这项工作还将有助于改善对北极海冰和生态系统条件的未来预测，向公众，政策制定者和行业提供重要信息。该奖项反映了NSF的法定任务，并被认为是通过基金会的智力优点评估而被视为珍贵的支持，并具有更广泛的影响。