Exploring the role of sea ice physics in Arctic climate variability and predictability

探索海冰物理在北极气候变化和可预测性中的作用

基本信息

批准号：
NE/P001645/1
负责人：
Daniel Feltham
金额：
$ 59.98万
依托单位：
University of Reading
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Research Grant
财政年份：
2017
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2017 至无数据
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FP001645%2F1
关键词：
Exploring role sea ice physics

项目摘要

Recent observed changes in the Arctic have become a 'poster child' for global climatic changes, particularly because the summer sea ice extent has shrunk rapidly over the past 35 years. This retreat of the sea ice has led to growth of trans-Arctic shipping and plans to extract minerals and fossil fuels from the ocean floor. Observations of the Arctic have also improved in recent years with new satellites measuring sea ice properties from space. In particular, these satellites now provide estimates of the sea ice thickness across the Arctic during the winter months. This development allows better monitoring of the state of the sea ice and a new way to test and assess our physical understanding and the latest climate model simulations. The latest assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concluded that it was likely that the Arctic would become reliably ice-free by 2050 assuming greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase. This change would provide both enormous risks and opportunities.However, the climate simulations used by the IPCC often fail to realistically capture large scale properties of the Arctic sea ice, such as the extent, variability and recent trends. Therefore, there is a key need to improve simulations of Arctic sea ice to provide better understanding of the recent observed changes and credible projections of the future to help assess risks and opportunities and inform important policy decisions about adaptation and mitigation. In addition, there is a growing need for shorter-term sea ice forecasts, such as a few weeks or months ahead, to help inform local communities and industry stakeholders, such as shipping companies. This project will seek to better understand the role of natural weather and climate fluctuations in producing recent Arctic sea ice changes on annual to decadal timescales.One essential ingredient for improving the climate model simulations is to better represent the missing relevant physical processes in the latest sea ice models. This proposal will develop and implement improved physics for the sea ice model, which is used by many international groups, including the Met Office. The enhanced sea ice model will be further developed to improve its simulation of Arctic climate, and its ability to provide more reliable sea ice predictions will also be tested.

最近观察到的北极变化已成为全球气候变化的“海报孩子”，尤其是因为在过去的35年中，夏季海冰范围迅速缩小。海冰的这种撤退导致北极运输的增长，并计划从海底提取矿物质和化石燃料。近年来，随着新卫星测量空间的海冰性能，北极的观察结果也有所改善。尤其是，这些卫星现在提供了冬季北极的海冰厚度的估计。这种发展允许更好地监测海冰状态，并可以测试和评估我们的物理理解和最新气候模型模拟的新方法。政府间气候变化小组（IPCC）的最新评估得出的结论是，假设温室气体排放量不断增加，到2050年，北极可能会可靠地无冰。这种变化将提供巨大的风险和机会。但是，IPCC使用的气候模拟通常无法现实地捕获北极海冰的大规模特性，例如程度，可变性和最近的趋势。因此，有一个关键需要改善对北极海冰的模拟，以更好地理解对未来的最新变化和可靠的预测，以帮助评估风险和机会，并为有关适应和缓解的重要政策决定提供信息。此外，越来越多的较短的海冰预测，例如前几周或几个月，以帮助当地社区和行业利益相关者（例如运输公司）通知。该项目将寻求更好地了解自然天气和气候波动在生产近期北极海冰对年度变化至十分时间尺寸的作用中。改善气候模型模拟的一种重要成分是更好地代表最新海冰模型中缺少的相关物理过程。该建议将开发并实施改进的海冰模型的物理，该模型由包括大都会办公室在内的许多国际团体使用。将进一步开发增强的海冰模型，以改善其对北极气候的模拟，并将测试其提供更可靠的海冰预测的能力。