Interaction of Convective Organization and Monsoon Precipitation, Atmosphere, Surface and Sea (INCOMPASS)

对流组织与季风降水、大气、地表和海洋的相互作用 (INCOMPASS)

• 批准号: NE/L013843/1
• 负责人: Douglas Parker
• 金额: $ 49.9万
• 依托单位: University of Leeds
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2015
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2015 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FL013843%2F1
• 关键词: Interaction; Convective; Organization; Monsoon; Precipitation

The monsoon supplies the majority of water for agriculture and industry in South Asia, and is therefore critical to the well-being of a billion people. Active and break periods in the monsoon have a major influence on the success of farming, while year-to-year variations in the rainfall have economic consequences on an international scale. The growing population and developing economy mean that understanding and predicting the monsoon is therefore vital. Despite this, our capability to model the monsoon, and to make forecasts on scales from days to the season ahead is limited by large errors that develop quickly. The relatively poor performance of weather prediction models over India is due to a very strong and complex relationship between the land, ocean and atmosphere, which are linked by the process of convection, in the form of the rain-bringing cumulonimbus clouds. Forecast errors occur primarily because the convective clouds are not accurately linked to the large-scale circulation or to the surface conditions, and these errors persist to long time scales. Worldwide, weather and climate forecast models are gaining resolution, and yet the errors in monsoon rainfall are not diminishing. A lack of detailed observations of the land, ocean and atmospheric parts of the monsoon system, on a range of temporal and spatial scales, is preventing a more thorough understanding of processes in monsoon convective clouds and at the land surface, and their interaction with the large-scale circulation. This project will use a programme of new measurements over India and the adjacent oceans to advance monsoon forecasting capability in the Indo-UK community. The first detachment of the FAAM research aircraft to India, in combination with an intensive ground-based observation campaign, will gather new observations of the land surface, the boundary layer structure over land and ocean, and atmospheric profiles. We will institute a new long-term series of measurements of energy and water exchanges at the land surface. Research measurements from one monsoon season will be combined with long-term observations on the Indian operational networks. Observations will be focused on two transects: in the northern plains of India, covering a range of surface types from irrigated to rain-fed agriculture, and wet to dry climatic zones; and across the Western Ghats, with transitions from land to ocean and across orography. The observational analysis will represent a unique and unprecedented characterization of monsoon processes linking the land, ocean and atmospheric patterns which control the rainfall. Long-term measurements will allow the computation of statistical relationships between the various factors. The observational analysis will feed directly into improved forecasting at the Met Office and NCMRWF. The Met Office Unified Model, which is used for weather forecasting at both institutions, will be set up in a range of different ways for the observational period. In particular, we will pioneer the test development of a new 100m-resolution atmospheric model, which we expect to greatly improve the representation of land-ocean-atmosphere interactions. Another priority will be to improve land surface modelling in monsoon forecasts. By comparing the results of the very high resolution models on small domains with lower-resolution models representing the global weather patterns, it will be possible to describe the key processes controlling monsoon rainfall, and to indicate how these need to be represented in different applications, such as weather predictions or climate predictions. Through model evaluation at a range of scales, the development of simple theoretical understanding of the rainfall processes, and working with groups responsible for operational model improvement, the project will lead directly to improvements in monsoon forecasts. By improving rainfall prediction, we expect the work to have an economic impact in India and internationally.

季风为南亚农业和工业提供大部分用水，因此对十亿人的福祉至关重要。季风的活跃期和休止期对农业的成功具有重大影响，而降雨量的逐年变化在国际范围内产生经济影响。因此，人口的增长和经济的发展意味着了解和预测季风至关重要。尽管如此，我们对季风进行建模以及对从几天到未来季节的尺度进行预测的能力受到快速产生的大误差的限制。印度天气预报模型的性能相对较差，是因为陆地、海洋和大气之间存在着非常强烈和复杂的关系，这些关系通过对流过程（以带来降雨的积雨云的形式）联系在一起。出现预报误差的主要原因是对流云与大规模环流或地表条件没有准确联系，并且这些误差会持续很长时间。在世界范围内，天气和气候预测模型的分辨率不断提高，但季风降雨的误差并没有减少。由于缺乏对季风系统的陆地、海洋和大气部分在一系列时间和空间尺度上的详细观测，阻碍了对季风对流云和陆地表面的过程及其与大气层相互作用的更透彻的了解。大规模流通。该项目将利用印度和邻近海洋的新测量计划来提高印度-英国社区的季风预报能力。第一个飞往印度的 FAAM 研究飞机分队将结合密集的地面观测活动，收集有关陆地表面、陆地和海洋边界层结构以及大气剖面的新观测数据。我们将开展一系列新的长期地表能量和水交换测量。一个季风季节的研究测量结果将与印度运营网络的长期观测相结合。观测将集中在两个横断面：印度北部平原，涵盖从灌溉到雨养农业的一系列地表类型，以及潮湿到干燥的气候带；并跨越西高止山脉，从陆地到海洋的过渡以及地形的转变。观测分析将代表季风过程的独特且前所未有的特征，季风过程将控制降雨的陆地、海洋和大气模式联系起来。长期测量将允许计算各种因素之间的统计关系。观测分析将直接用于改善英国气象局和 NCMRWF 的预报。气象局统一模型用于两个机构的天气预报，将在观测期间以一系列不同的方式建立。特别是，我们将率先测试开发一种新的 100m 分辨率大气模型，我们希望该模型能够极大地改善陆地-海洋-大气相互作用的表征。另一个优先事项是改进季风预报中的地表建模。通过将小域上的极高分辨率模型的结果与代表全球天气模式的低分辨率模型的结果进行比较，将有可能描述控制季风降雨的关键过程，并指出如何在不同的应用中表示这些过程，例如天气预报或气候预测。通过一系列尺度的模型评估、对降雨过程的简单理论理解的发展以及与负责业务模型改进的小组合作，该项目将直接导致季风预报的改进。通过改进降雨预测，我们预计这项工作将对印度和国际经济产生影响。

项目成果

Assessing the level of spatial homogeneity of the agronomic Indian monsoon onset

评估印度季风爆发的农艺空间均匀性水平

• DOI: http://dx.10.1002/2016gl070711
• 发表时间: 2016
• 期刊: Geophysical Research Letters
• 影响因子: 5.2
• 作者: Fitzpatrick R

A case-study of land-atmosphere coupling during monsoon onset in northern India

印度北部季风爆发期间陆地-大气耦合的案例研究

• DOI: http://dx.10.1002/qj.3538
• 发表时间: 2019
• 期刊: Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
• 影响因子: 8.9
• 作者: Barton E

The dynamic and thermodynamic structure of the monsoon over southern India: New observations from the INCOMPASS IOP

印度南部季风的动力和热力学结构：INCOMPASS IOP 的新观测

• DOI: http://dx.10.1002/qj.3439
• 发表时间: 2019
• 期刊: Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
• 影响因子: 8.9
• 作者: Fletcher J

The movement of Indian monsoon depressions by interaction with image vortices near the Himalayan wall

印度季风低压与喜马拉雅墙附近图像涡旋相互作用的运动

• DOI: 10.1002/qj.2812
• 发表时间: 2016-07-01
• 期刊: Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
• 影响因子: 8.9
• 作者: Kieran M. R. Hunt;D. Parker
• 通讯作者: D. Parker

Analytical solution to a thermodynamic model for the sensitivity of afternoon deep convective initiation to the surface Bowen ratio

下午深对流引发对地表鲍文比敏感性热力学模型的解析解

• DOI: http://dx.10.1002/qj.3340
• 发表时间: 2018
• 期刊: Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
• 影响因子: 8.9
• 作者: Bhowmick M