The economic impact of El Niño related floods and drought on small and medium enterprises in Botswana, Kenya and Zambia

厄尔尼诺相关洪水和干旱对博茨瓦纳、肯尼亚和赞比亚中小企业的经济影响

• 批准号: NE/P004784/1
• 负责人: Declan Conway
• 金额: $ 33.98万
• 依托单位: London School of Economics and Political Science
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2016
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2016 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FP004784%2F1
• 关键词: economic; impact; El; Ni; related

The proposed research will assess the impacts of and responses to extreme drought (Botswana and Zambia) and floods (Kenya) associated with the 2015-16 El Niño (EN) and subsequent rainy season. The aim is to examine the economic consequences for small and medium enterprises (SME) as they are affected by: water supply disruption in Botswana's capital Gaborone due to drought; extreme flooding in Kenya; and disruption in Zambia's electricity supply due to reduced hydropower production caused by low reservoir levels. The project is a partnership between the Grantham Research Institute (London School of Economics), the African Collaborative Centre for Earth System Science (University of Nairobi), the Botswana Institute for Technology Research and Innovation and the University of Barotseland (Zambia).African SME are seen as crucial for growth and prosperity, yet they face numerous challenges, including climate-related disruption to essential activities. However, these impacts are often poorly documented and the evidence base of economic impact is very sparse. This research is timely and urgent; in all three cases there is a need for real-time/rapid assessment as retrospective studies suffer from recall bias. The study is designed to start in April 2016 and track impacts and response through to February 2017 to make repeat surveys of EN impacts, institutional response and learning. We identify three main objectives;1) To document the hydrological impacts and water resource management response during and after the 2015-16 EN.2) To assess the recent and ongoing socio-economic impacts of EN-induced disruption and mitigation responses in SME.3) To examine factors affecting risk perceptions and behavioural change during a period of extreme climate disruption. All three objectives concern important knowledge gaps and are also designed to generate evidence and novel insights that can inform policy and practice to support more effective climate risk management.The project aims to make a difference through academic papers for disciplinary (hydrology, climatology) and interdisciplinary environmental journals. We will also make presentations at relevant national and regional fora and present key insights to disaster management agencies. We will explore opportunities to scale-up outputs through joint collaborations (workshops, events) with other projects supported by this call.Programme and plan of research - The work consists of six main stages over 18 months;1) Scoping of EN impacts from web reports and local media, complemented with stakeholder consultations to agree study locations and sampling strategy. April-May 20162) Design survey and interview questions, identify key respondents and SME. May-June 20163) First survey and interviews. July-August 20164) Data entry, transcription and analysis. September-December 20165) Repeat revised survey and follow-up interviews (Learning assessment). December 2016-February 20176) Complete analysis and write-up. March-September 2017Dissemination activities will be undertaken throughout the full period and include a small mid-project stakeholder event and final dissemination event in each country.The proposed work aims to integrate contextual information, biophysical data, interviews and surveys, collected at key points during the study. The work will generate rigorous baseline evidence for three countries of EN associated drought and flood impact pathways and damages. Robust evidence of damages is essential for costing disaster risk reduction programmes and adaptation and useful to governments and development actors for targeting actions. Insights of water/disaster management and SME response and follow-up assessment of risk perceptions and learning will allow us to generate recommendations on preparedness and response (what works well; why, where and when) and feed these into research, practice and policy communities.

拟议的研究将评估与2015-16厄尔尼诺（EN）以及随后的雨季相关的极端干旱（博茨瓦纳和赞比亚）和地板（肯尼亚）的影响和反应。目的是检查中小型企业（SME）的经济后果，因为它们受到：由于干旱而导致博茨瓦纳首都加博隆的供水中断；肯尼亚的极端洪水；赞比亚电力供应的破坏是由于低储水库水平引起的水力发电的降低而导致的。该项目是Grantham研究所（伦敦经济学院），非洲地球系统科学合作中心（内罗毕大学），博茨瓦纳技术研究与创新研究所以及Barotseland（Zambia）（赞比亚）的合作伙伴。但是，这些影响通常被证明很少，经济影响的证据基础非常稀疏。这项研究及时紧急。在所有三种情况下，随着回顾性研究遭受召回偏见的影响，需要实时/快速评估。该研究旨在从2016年4月开始，并遵循直到2017年2月的影响和响应，以重复对EN影响，机构响应和学习的调查。我们确定了三个主要目标； 1）记录2015-16 EN.2）期间和之后的氢化影响和水资源管理响应。所有三个目标都涉及重要的知识差距，还旨在产生证据和新颖的见解，可以为政策和实践提供信息，以支持更有效的气候风险管理。该项目旨在通过学科（水文，气候）和跨学科环境期刊的学术论文来产生影响。我们还将在相关的国家和区域福用中进行演讲，并向灾难管理机构提供关键见解。我们将通过与此呼叫支持的其他项目进行联合合作（研讨会，活动）来扩展产量的机会。程序和研究计划 - 该工作包括18个月内的六个主要阶段； 1）范围范围内的EN影响和本地媒体的EN影响，并与利益相关者咨询以同意研究地点和采样策略。 20162年4月至5月）设计调查和采访问题，确定关键受访者和中小型企业。 20163年5月至6月）首次调查和访谈。 20164年7月至8月）数据输入，转录和分析。 20165年9月至12月）重复修订的调查和后续访谈（学习评估）。 2016年12月2月20176年）完整的分析和写入。 2017年3月至9月的删除活动将在整个期间进行，并在每个国家 /地区包括一个小型的中型利益相关者活动和最终传播活动。拟议的工作旨在在研究期间收集到关键点的上下文信息，生物物理数据，访谈和调查。这项工作将为三个相关的干旱和洪水影响途径和损害造成严格的基线证据。损害赔偿的强大证据对于减少灾害风险计划和适应性是至关重要的，对政府和发展行为者的目标行动有用。水/灾难管理和中小型企业反应的见解以及对风险感知和学习的后续评估将使我们能够为准备和响应提出建议（效果很好；为什么，何时何时何地）并将这些建议融入研究，实践和政策社区。

项目成果

Climate risks to hydropower supply in eastern and southern Africa

东部和南部非洲水力发电面临的气候风险

• 发表时间: 2018
• 作者: Conway D