Southern Africa's hydro-economy and water security (SAHEWS)

南部非洲的水利经济和水安全 (SAHEWS)

• 批准号: NE/L008785/2
• 负责人: Declan Conway
• 金额: $ 36.46万
• 依托单位: London School of Economics and Political Science
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2014
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2014 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FL008785%2F2
• 关键词: Southern; Africa; hydro; economy; water; Southern; Africa; hydro; economy; water

Water security in southern Africa encapsulates global pressures on water: rapid population growth, chronic and drought-induced food shortages, growing water scarcity and energy security problems coincident with rising demand, transboundary and regional allocation issues, and a strongly variable climate that will likely become drier and more variable in the future. These challenges are exacerbated by political, institutional and economic factors, including limited management and regulatory capacity, and highly inequitable access to reliable potable water. This research seeks to improve understanding of the drivers of short to medium term hydro-meteorological variability, its socioeconomic consequences and develop approaches for improved water resources management in the region.The proposed collaboration addresses important knowledge gaps in the effective management of water security. Hydro-meteorological variability is large and spatially extensive such that prolonged floods and droughts cause macroscale socioeconomic impacts yet these are poorly understood. Seasonal forecasts show greater skill for southern Africa relative to many other regions but reliability and skill remain important constraints. This project will assess and refine seasonal forecasts for water management, model the socioeconomic consequences of hydro-meteorological variability and develop knowledge transfer techniques, such as Info-Gap Decision Theory for supporting water management under conditions of high uncertainty. A co-design process will engage with two case studies to develop decision-relevant indicators, and high level dissemination and up-scaling will occur through regional workshops with strategic decision-makers.

南部非洲的水安全构成了全球对水的压力：人口迅速增长，慢性和干旱引起的粮食短缺，越来越多的水稀缺性和能源安全问题与需求不断上升，跨界和区域分配问题同时发生，并且可变的气候强烈，这种气候可能会变得越来越干燥，并且将来会变得更繁重。政治，机构和经济因素，包括有限的管理和监管能力以及高度不平等的可靠饮用水，使这些挑战加剧了。这项研究旨在提高对短期至中期水电学变化的驱动因素的理解，其社会经济后果，并开发了改善该地区水资源管理的方法。拟议的合作旨在解决有效管理水安全管理方面的重要知识差距。水电学的变异性很大，在空间上是广泛的，因此长时间的洪水和干旱会引起宏观的社会经济影响，但对这些影响很少。相对于许多其他地区，季节性预测对南部非洲的技能表现出更高的技能，但是可靠性和技能仍然是重要的限制。该项目将评估和完善水管理的季节性预测，对水电学变异性的社会经济后果进行建模，并开发知识转移技术，例如在高不确定性条件下支持水管理的信息差距决策理论。共同设计的过程将参与两个案例研究，以制定与决策相关的指标，并且将通过具有战略决策者的区域讲习班进行高级传播和提高规模。