Uncertainty reduction in Models For Understanding deveLopment Applications (UMFULA)

降低理解开发应用模型 (UMFULA) 的不确定性

• 批准号: NE/M020398/1
• 负责人: Declan Conway
• 金额: $ 110.47万
• 依托单位: London School of Economics and Political Science
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2015
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2015 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FM020398%2F1
• 关键词: Uncertainty; reduction; Models; Understanding; deveLopment

Central and Southern Africa (C&SA) exemplifies the issues that FCFA aims to address: a complex mix of remote and regional climate drivers that challenge conventional climate model simulations, high levels of poorly simulated multi-year climate variability, an extremely low level of investment in climate science relative even to other parts of Africa but particularly West Africa; high physical and socio-economic exposure to climate that projections indicate may become drier and more variable in the future; and low adaptive capacity resulting in decision-making and medium-term planning that is inhibited by significant political, institutional and economic barriers. Meanwhile economic growth and significant infrastructure planning is taking place within C&SA in the absence of adequate climate information.Deficient understanding of many key climate features in C&SA is one barrier to the integration of climate information into decision-making. UMFULA will provide a step-change in climate science in C&SA. Our objectives include: (i) fundamental research into key climate processes over C&SA and how these are dealt with in models; (ii) a process-based evaluation to determine how models invoke change and whether that change is credible; (iii) production of novel climate products (Work Packages WP1-2) encompassing convection permitting and very high resolution (c4 km) ocean-atmosphere coupled simulations that will reveal processes of high impact events and as yet unexplored complexities of the climate change signal. We will also focus on neglected but critical elements of the circulation such as the links between C&SA and the role of local features including the Angolan Low, Botswana anticyclone, Angola/Benguela Frontal Zone, and the Seychelles-Chagos thermocline ridge. Based on this research and through co-production with stakeholders we will generate improved and streamlined climate information for decision-makers (WP3).We will use a deliberative and participatory methodology to test findings from FCFA pillars 1 and 2 with stakeholders based on deep engagement in two contrasting case studies: the Rufiji river basin in Tanzania, and sub-national decision-making in Malawi. They are carefully selected as exemplars of multi-sector, multi-stakeholder, and multi-scale decision situations which can be compared for transferable lessons on the effective use of climate services.In-depth understanding of decision-making contexts, including political economy, theories of institutional change, and individual motivation from behavioural sciences will inform how to tailor and target climate projections for most effective use (WP4). The case study areas (WP5-6) will test these findings through a co-produced framework of C&SA-appropriate decision-making under climate uncertainty to identify robust climate services-informed intervention pathways (portfolios of policies and investments that could work well over a broad range of climatic and socio-economic futures). Our Capstone Work Package (WP7), and major outcome, will be the synthesis of best decision-making models and appraisal methods that are transferable in the African context and enable effective use of climate information in medium-term decision-making.The seven UMFULA Work Packages cut across the three FCFA pillars to ensure maximum complementarity and integration. We are a consortium with world-leading expertise in climate science, decision science and adaptation research and practice, together with stakeholder networks and strong, long-standing relationships in C&SA. We comprise 5 UK and 13 African institutions.

中部和南部非洲（C＆SA）例证了FCFA旨在解决的问题：挑战传统气候模型模拟的遥远和区域气候驱动因素的复杂组合，高水平模拟的多年气候变化较差，与非洲其他地区相对的气候科学相对于其他地区的气候科学的投资水平极低，但尤其是西非。物理和社会经济的高度暴露于气候，预测表明将来可能会变得更干燥，变化更大。自适应能力较低，导致决策和中期计划受到重大政治，机构和经济障碍的抑制。同时，在没有足够的气候信息的情况下，在C＆SA内进行了经济增长和重大的基础设施计划。对C＆SA中许多关键气候特征的理解是将气候信息整合到决策中的一个障碍。 Umfula将在C＆SA中提供气候科学的步骤变化。我们的目标包括：（i）对C＆SA关键气候过程的基本研究以及模型中如何处理这些过程； （ii）基于过程的评估，以确定模型如何调用变化以及这种变化是否可信； （iii）生产新型气候产品（WP1-2）的生产允许对流和非常高的分辨率（C4 km）海洋 - 大气耦合模拟，这些模拟将揭示高影响事件的过程，并且尚未探索气候变化信号的复杂性。我们还将专注于循环的被忽视但关键元素，例如C＆SA之间的联系以及包括安哥拉低点，博茨瓦纳反气旋，安哥拉/本格拉额叶区和塞舌尔 - 查戈斯 - 查戈斯热跃层山脊在内的本地特征的作用。基于这项研究并通过与利益相关者的共同生产，我们将为决策者生成改进和简化的气候信息（WP3）。我们将使用一种审议和参与性的方法来测试FCFA支柱1和2的发现，其基于利益相关者的基础，基于在两个相反的案例研究中，基于利益相关的案例研究：Rufijiiriver Basin in Tanzania和Sub-national National和Sub-National and-National Digination。它们被精心选择为多部门，多利益相关者和多尺度决策情况的示例，可以比较有关有效利用气候服务的可转让课程。对决策环境的理解，包括政治经济，包括制度化的理论，包括制度化的理论以及行为科学的个人动机，从而将其供应量身定制和针对气候的人（最多有效）。案例研究领域（WP5-6）将通过在气候不确定性下共同制作的C＆SA适当决策框架来测试这些发现，以识别强大的气候服务所采用的强烈气候服务途径（政策和投资组合，这些政策和投资的投资组合可以在广泛的气候和社会经济期待中可以很好地运行）。我们的顶峰工作包（WP7）以及主要结果将是在非洲背景下可以转移的最佳决策模型和评估方法的综合，并能够在中期决策中有效使用气候信息。七个UMFULA工作套餐切入了三个FCFA支柱，以确保最大的补充和整合。我们是一个拥有气候科学，决策科学和适应研究和实践的世界领先专业知识的财团，以及利益相关者网络以及C＆SA中牢固的长期关系。我们组成了5个英国和13个非洲机构。

项目成果

A Regional Project in Support of the SADC Cyber-Infrastructure Framework Implementation: Weather and Climate

支持南部非洲发展共同体网络基础设施框架实施的区域项目：天气和气候

• DOI: 10.5334/dsj-2019-034
• 发表时间: 2019
• 期刊: Data Science Journal
• 作者: Bopape M

Understanding the evolution of the 2014-2016 summer rainfall seasons in southern Africa: Key lessons

• DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2017.03.006
• 发表时间: 2017-01-01
• 期刊: CLIMATE RISK MANAGEMENT
• 影响因子: 4.4
• 作者: Archer, Emma Rosa Mary;Landman, Willem Adolf;Marumbwa, Farai Maxwell
• 通讯作者: Marumbwa, Farai Maxwell

Projecting future water availability in Lake Malawi and the Shire River basin

预测马拉维湖和夏雷河流域未来的可用水量

• 发表时间: 2019
• 作者: Bhave A.

Lake Malawi's threshold behaviour: A stakeholder-informed model to simulate sensitivity to climate change

• DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.124671
• 发表时间: 2020-05-01
• 期刊: JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY
• 影响因子: 6.4
• 作者: Bhave, Ajay G.;Bulcock, Lauren;Mkwambisi, David
• 通讯作者: Mkwambisi, David

Hydropower plans in eastern and southern Africa increase risk of concurrent climate-related electricity supply disruption

• DOI: 10.1038/s41560-017-0037-4
• 发表时间: 2017-12-01
• 期刊: NATURE ENERGY
• 影响因子: 56.7
• 作者: Conway, Declan;Dalin, Carole;Osborn, Timothy J.
• 通讯作者: Osborn, Timothy J.