The velocity of evolutionary responses of species to ecological change: testing adaptive limits in time and space

物种对生态变化的进化反应速度：测试时间和空间的适应性限制

基本信息

批准号：
NE/N015843/1
负责人：
Jonathan Bridle
金额：
$ 41.64万
依托单位：
University of Bristol
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Research Grant
财政年份：
2016
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2016 至无数据
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FN015843%2F1
关键词：
velocity evolutionary responses species ecological

项目摘要

Climate change is causing the populations of some species to increase, some to remain relatively stable, and others to decline, even when the species co-exist and might be expected to exhibit comparable ecological responses (e.g., some southern species have expanded their ranges northwards, whereas others have retreated). This diversity of responses to climate change may reflect differences in their capacities to undertake evolutionary and plastic responses that determine success or failure. However, multi-species studies of historical evolutionary responses to environmental change are lacking. In the proposed research, we will use: (1) analyses of historical and present-day DNA from 30 species (10 declining, 10 stable and 10 expanding) to identify the commonality or diversity of adaptive responses to anthropogenic climate change; (2) experimental studies to tease apart plastic, epigenetic and evolutionary responses in a focal species; and (3) modelling to evaluate the contributions of evolutionary, epigenetic and plastic changes to the responses of British Lepidoptera to past and future climatic changes. Moths and butterflies represent an ideal study group because extensive datasets allow us to document the ecological (population abundance, distribution change) and plastic (phenology) responses of species to climate change over the past four decades with a precision not possible for other taxa. Their annual (or faster) generations permit rapid evolutionary change as well as plastic responses to within- and between-year variation in climatic conditions. Museum collections will enable us to assess historical levels of genetic variation within our study species prior to 20th century anthropogenic climate change. We will take advantage of recent advances in sequencing technology to quantify ancestral genetic variation in our study species, and compare this with current genomic diversity to enumerate genetic changes taking place in declining, stable and increasing species, and specifically to evaluate whether species with higher levels of genetic variation show greater ability to adapt to climate change. We will complement this multi-species analysis by evaluating the capacity of expanding, stable and declining populations of one focal species, Pararge aegeria (Speckled wood butterfly) to exhibit evolutionary change, phenotypic plasticity and epigenetic effects using experiments in which we manipulate environmental conditions during larval development (temperature, photoperiod and host-plant desiccation). These experiments will reveal if there are environmental thresholds beyond which adaptive plasticity fails, and the potential for plasticity to evolve and buffer species under future environments. We will then use dynamic simulation models that incorporate our empirical data to test the relative importance of phenotypic plasticity, epigenetic effects, and evolutionary responses in determining species' responses to climate change, and how the relative importance of these factors varies among different species and population types. Once calibrated, we can then use our models to project the responses of these species to future climate change, based on observed limits to adaptation and plasticity. Distinguishing the key factors (ecological, demographic, and genomic) that determine species' responses to environmental change, and how these depend on evolutionary responses, will allow us to identify potential conservation strategies to facilitate population persistence and growth in the face of ongoing climate change.

气候变化正在导致某些物种的种群增加，有些人保持相对稳定，而有些人也会下降，即使该物种共存并且可能会表现出可比的生态反应（例如，一些南方物种向北扩展了范围，而另一些则撤退了）。对气候变化的反应的多样性可能反映了其能力的差异，以实现决定成功或失败的进化和塑性反应。但是，缺乏对历史进化反应的多种物种研究。在拟议的研究中，我们将使用：（1）对30种（10下降，10个稳定和10次扩展）的历史和当今DNA进行分析，以确定对人为气候变化的适应性反应的共同点或多样性；（2）在焦点物种中嘲笑塑性，表观遗传和进化反应的实验研究；（3）建模，以评估进化，表观遗传和塑料对英国鳞翅目对过去和将来气候变化的反应的贡献。飞蛾和蝴蝶代表了一个理想的研究小组，因为广泛的数据集使我们能够记录过去四十年中物种对气候变化的生态（种群丰度，分布变化）和塑性（物学）反应，而其他类群不可能精确。他们的年度（或更快）的年代允许快速进化变化，以及对气候条件下年内和年之间的塑性反应。博物馆收集将使我们能够评估20世纪人为气候变化之前研究物种内遗传变异的历史水平。我们将利用测序技术的最新进展来量化研究物种中的祖先遗传变异，并将其与当前的基因组多样性进行比较，以列举遗传变化，在下降，稳定和增加物种中发生，特别是评估具有较高遗传变异水平的物种是否表现出更大的能力，可以使气候变化更加适应气候变化。我们将通过评估一种焦点物种的扩大，稳定和减少种群的能力，Pararge aegeria（斑点的木制蝴蝶）来表现出进化变化，表型可变性和表观镜头效应，通过在幼年中我们操纵环境条件（温度，光Plotoperiod和宿主的宿主）来表现出进化的变化，表型的可变性和表观遗传效应。这些实验将揭示是否存在自适应可塑性失败的环境阈值，以及在未来环境下可塑性发展和缓冲物种的潜力。然后，我们将使用动态仿真模型，这些模型结合了我们的经验数据，以测试表型可塑性，表观遗传效应和进化反应在确定物种对气候变化的反应时的相对重要性，以及这些因素的相对重要性如何在不同物种和人群类型之间变化。一旦校准，我们就可以根据观察到的适应性和可塑性的限制，利用我们的模型来投射这些物种对未来气候变化的反应。区分确定物种对环境变化的反应的关键因素（生态，人口统计学和基因组），以及它们如何依赖进化反应，将使我们能够确定潜在的保护策略，以促进面对持续气候变化的人口持久和增长。

项目成果

期刊论文数量（10）

专著数量（0）

科研奖励数量（0）

会议论文数量（0）

专利数量（0）

Discovering the limits of ecological resilience.

发现生态恢复力的极限。

DOI：
10.1126/science.aba6432
发表时间：
2020
期刊：
Science (New York, N.Y.)
影响因子：
0
作者：
Bridle J
通讯作者：
Bridle J

The evolution of novel biotic interactions at ecological margins in response to climate change involves alleles from across the geographical range of the UK Brown Argus butterfly

响应气候变化而在生态边缘发生的新型生物相互作用的演变涉及来自英国棕色阿格斯蝴蝶整个地理范围的等位基因

DOI：
10.1101/2022.02.07.479435
发表时间：
2022
期刊：
影响因子：
0
作者：
De Jong M
通讯作者：
De Jong M

Rapid evolution of novel biotic interactions in the UK Brown Argus butterfly uses genomic variation from across its geographical range.

英国褐阿格斯蝴蝶新型生物相互作用的快速进化利用了其整个地理范围内的基因组变异。

DOI：
10.1111/mec.17138
发表时间：
2023
期刊：
Molecular ecology
影响因子：
4.9
作者：
De Jong M
通讯作者：
De Jong M

Haplotype tagging reveals parallel formation of hybrid races in two butterfly species.

DOI：
10.1073/pnas.2015005118
发表时间：
2021-06-22
期刊：
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
影响因子：
11.1
作者：
Meier JI;Salazar PA;Kučka M;Davies RW;Dréau A;Aldás I;Box Power O;Nadeau NJ;Bridle JR;Rolian C;Barton NH;McMillan WO;Jiggins CD;Chan YF
通讯作者：
Chan YF

Environmental variation and biotic interactions limit adaptation at ecological margins: lessons from rainforest Drosophila and European butterflies.

环境变化和生物相互作用限制了生态边缘的适应：雨林果蝇和欧洲蝴蝶的教训。