Collaborative Research: ORCC: LIVING WITH EXTREMES - PREDICTING ECOLOGICAL AND EVOLUTIONARY RESPONSES TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN A HIGH-ALTITUDE ALPINE SONGBIRD

合作研究：ORCC：极端生活 - 预测高海拔高山鸣鸟对气候变化的生态和进化反应

基本信息

批准号：
2222524
负责人：
Erika Zavaleta
金额：
$ 50.02万
依托单位：
University of California-Santa Cruz
依托单位国家：
美国
项目类别：
Standard Grant
财政年份：
2023
资助国家：
美国
起止时间：
2023-01-01 至 2025-12-31
项目状态：
未结题

来源：
https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2222524&HistoricalAwards=false
关键词：
Collaborative Research ORCC LIVING EXTREMES

项目摘要

The ability of wildlife to cope with climate change depends on the capacity to do one or more of three things: move to suitable areas, adapt through evolution, or adjust behavior and physiology. Climate change can force mountaintop wildlife onto an “escalator to extinction” as temperatures rise, because no higher-elevation options exist. This project examines how two related mountaintop songbirds, the Brown-capped Rosy-Finch and the Sierra Nevada Gray-Crowned Rosy-Finch, have combined these strategies to specialize and persist in extreme alpine environments over time. It uses museum specimens to establish a pre-climate change baseline and field surveys to explore how current coping strategies vary across the high-elevation range of each songbird. The project integrates these findings with climate change projections to forecast future responses through an integrated statistical model incorporating movement, evolutionary, and behavior changes such as shifts in annual timing of parenting and diet. Absence of basic information about Rosy-Finches (RF) currently hinders management by state and federal agencies. The project will deliver tailored reports and data products to partner agencies in the western United States to enable uptake of findings and model approaches into decision-making. The project will also provide summer field research internships to four undergraduate students each year through the UCSC Doris Duke Conservation Scholars Program and Center to Advance Mentored, Inquiry-based Opportunities (CAMINO), which serve students from marginalized backgrounds in STEM, and train a graduate student and two postdoctoral fellows as scientists and effective mentors for diverse students. While reports of extirpations and range contractions in high-altitude species are increasingly widespread, less attention has been paid to the potential roles of gene flow and local adaptation in extinction avoidance, and of behavioral responses that could both allow individuals to cope and influence their eco-evolutionary responsiveness. Correspondingly, while the methodology for determining the capacity for range shifts through species distribution modeling has developed steadily over the last several decades, the ability to incorporate the capacity for adaptation, plasticity, and distributional shifts into a unified framework for forecasting species responses to environmental change remains limited. The integration of statistical, genomic, and ecological approaches across two Rosy-Finch subspecies will address fundamental eco-evolutionary questions: How does natural selection operate across space and time to constrain species distributions? What are the roles of ecological and evolutionary constraints on climate change response in extreme-environment specialists? The project will integrate spatial data with historical data from museum specimens to build a mechanistic, hierarchical model of genetic, phenotypic, and ecological responses to climate change and feedbacks among them. The work will also help identify biomarkers for understanding climate tolerance across high-alpine bird specialists. Finally, the project will inform Rosy-Finch as well as broader wildlife management under climate change by refining tools to forecast species distributions and abundances and including spatial and temporal organismal variation in considering management needs.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

野生动植物应对气候变化的能力取决于执行三件事中的一件事的能力：转移到合适的区域，通过进化或调整行为和生理学。随着温度升高，气候变化会迫使山顶野生动植物进入“自动扶梯延伸”，因为不存在更高的高度选择。该项目考试是如何将两种相关的山顶歌曲鸟分别为棕色玫瑰色的鳍和内华达山脉灰色的玫瑰果，将这些策略结合在一起，以在极端的高山环境中进行专业化和坚持。它使用博物馆规格来建立气候前的变化基线和现场调查，以探索当前的应对策略如何在每种鸣鸟的高海拔范围内变化。该项目将这些发现与气候变化项目相结合，以通过编码运动，进化和行为变化的综合统计模型来预测未来的反应，例如育儿和饮食的年度时间变化。缺少有关玫瑰色 - 罚款（RF）目前受到州和联邦机构的管理的基本信息。该项目将向美国西部的合作伙伴机构提供量身定制的报告和数据产品，以便将发现和模型方法纳入决策。该项目还将每年通过UCSC Doris Duke保护学者计划和中心为四名本科生提供暑期研究实习，以促进基于询问的基于询问的机会（Camino），这些机会（Camino）为STEM中边缘化背景的学生提供服务，并培训研究生和两名研究生和两名后者的研究员，作为科学家和有效的学生。尽管高空物种中灭绝和范围收缩的报告越来越普遍，但对基因流量和局部适应性的潜在作用的关注较少，在延伸避免范围内的局部适应性，以及可以允许个人应对和影响其生态进化反应的行为反应。相应地，虽然在过去的几十年中，确定范围通过物种分布建模的能力转移的方法已经悄然发展，但能够将适应性，可塑性和分布转移能力纳入预测物种对环境变化的响应的统一框架的能力仍然有限。统计，基因组和生态方法的整合在两种玫瑰色的亚种上将解决基本的生态进化问题：自然选择如何在跨时期和时间限制物种分布的跨时期和时间运作？在极端环境专家中，生态和进化限制对气候变化反应的作用是什么？该项目将将空间数据与博物馆标本的历史数据集成在一起，以建立一个对气候变化及其反馈反馈的遗传，表型和生态反应的机械，分层模型。这项工作还将有助于识别生物标志物，以了解高高山鸟类专家的气候耐受性。最后，该项目将通过完善工具来预测物种分布和摘要，包括在考虑管理需求的情况下，通过精炼工具来告知气候变化的玫瑰果和更广泛的野生动植物管理，包括空间和临时的组织变化。该奖项反映了NSF的法定任务，并通过使用基金会的知识分子优点和广泛影响来评估NSF的法定任务。