Collaborative Research: ORCC: LIVING WITH EXTREMES - PREDICTING ECOLOGICAL AND EVOLUTIONARY RESPONSES TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN A HIGH-ALTITUDE ALPINE SONGBIRD

合作研究：ORCC：极端生活 - 预测高海拔高山鸣鸟对气候变化的生态和进化反应

基本信息

批准号：
2222524
负责人：
Erika Zavaleta
金额：
$ 50.02万
依托单位：
University of California-Santa Cruz
依托单位国家：
美国
项目类别：
Standard Grant
财政年份：
2023
资助国家：
美国
起止时间：
2023-01-01 至 2025-12-31
项目状态：
未结题

来源：
https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2222524&HistoricalAwards=false
关键词：
Collaborative Research ORCC LIVING EXTREMES

项目摘要

The ability of wildlife to cope with climate change depends on the capacity to do one or more of three things: move to suitable areas, adapt through evolution, or adjust behavior and physiology. Climate change can force mountaintop wildlife onto an “escalator to extinction” as temperatures rise, because no higher-elevation options exist. This project examines how two related mountaintop songbirds, the Brown-capped Rosy-Finch and the Sierra Nevada Gray-Crowned Rosy-Finch, have combined these strategies to specialize and persist in extreme alpine environments over time. It uses museum specimens to establish a pre-climate change baseline and field surveys to explore how current coping strategies vary across the high-elevation range of each songbird. The project integrates these findings with climate change projections to forecast future responses through an integrated statistical model incorporating movement, evolutionary, and behavior changes such as shifts in annual timing of parenting and diet. Absence of basic information about Rosy-Finches (RF) currently hinders management by state and federal agencies. The project will deliver tailored reports and data products to partner agencies in the western United States to enable uptake of findings and model approaches into decision-making. The project will also provide summer field research internships to four undergraduate students each year through the UCSC Doris Duke Conservation Scholars Program and Center to Advance Mentored, Inquiry-based Opportunities (CAMINO), which serve students from marginalized backgrounds in STEM, and train a graduate student and two postdoctoral fellows as scientists and effective mentors for diverse students. While reports of extirpations and range contractions in high-altitude species are increasingly widespread, less attention has been paid to the potential roles of gene flow and local adaptation in extinction avoidance, and of behavioral responses that could both allow individuals to cope and influence their eco-evolutionary responsiveness. Correspondingly, while the methodology for determining the capacity for range shifts through species distribution modeling has developed steadily over the last several decades, the ability to incorporate the capacity for adaptation, plasticity, and distributional shifts into a unified framework for forecasting species responses to environmental change remains limited. The integration of statistical, genomic, and ecological approaches across two Rosy-Finch subspecies will address fundamental eco-evolutionary questions: How does natural selection operate across space and time to constrain species distributions? What are the roles of ecological and evolutionary constraints on climate change response in extreme-environment specialists? The project will integrate spatial data with historical data from museum specimens to build a mechanistic, hierarchical model of genetic, phenotypic, and ecological responses to climate change and feedbacks among them. The work will also help identify biomarkers for understanding climate tolerance across high-alpine bird specialists. Finally, the project will inform Rosy-Finch as well as broader wildlife management under climate change by refining tools to forecast species distributions and abundances and including spatial and temporal organismal variation in considering management needs.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

野生动物应对气候变化的能力取决于执行以下三件事中的一项或多项的能力：迁移到合适的地区、通过进化进行适应或调整行为和生理。气候变化可能迫使山顶野生动物走上“走向灭绝的自动扶梯”。随着气温升高，因为不存在更高海拔的选择，该项目研究了两种相关的山顶鸣禽——棕顶红雀和内华达山脉灰冠红雀——如何结合这些策略来专门化并坚持在极端高山地区。环境随着时间的推移，它使用博物馆标本建立气候变化前的基线和实地调查，以探索每种鸣禽当前的应对策略如何在高海拔范围内变化。该项目将这些发现与气候变化预测相结合，以预测未来的反应。综合统计模型纳入了运动、进化和行为变化，例如每年育儿和饮食时间的变化，目前缺乏有关玫瑰雀 (RF) 的基本信息，阻碍了州和联邦机构的管理。该项目将提供量身定制的报告和数据。向合作伙伴机构提供的产品该项目还将通过加州大学圣迭戈分校多丽丝·杜克保护学者计划和推进基于探究的机会中心，每年为四名本科生提供暑期实地研究实习机会。 (CAMINO)，该组织为来自 STEM 边缘背景的学生提供服务，并培训一名研究生和两名博士后研究员作为科学家和不同学生的有效导师，而有关高海拔物种灭绝和活动范围缩小的报告不断出现。越来越普遍的是，人们很少关注基因流动和局部适应在避免灭绝中的潜在作用，以及可以使个体应对并影响其生态进化反应的行为反应，而确定能力的方法。通过物种分布模型来预测范围变化的方法在过去几十年中已经稳步发展，但将适应能力、可塑性和分布变化纳入一个统一框架来预测物种对环境变化的反应的能力仍然有限。，以及跨越两个的生态方法玫瑰雀亚种将解决基本的生态进化问题：自然选择如何跨空间和时间限制物种分布？该项目将在空间上整合极端环境专家对气候变化响应的作用是什么？这项工作还将帮助确定生物标志物，以了解高山鸟类专家的气候耐受性。该项目将通过完善预测物种分布和丰度的工具，并在考虑管理需求时考虑到时空生物变化，为 Rosy-Finch 以及气候变化下更广泛的野生动物管理提供信息。该奖项反映了 NSF 的法定使命，并被认为值得通过使用评估来支持基金会的智力价值和更广泛的影响审查标准。