Will climate change in the Arctic increase the landslide-tsunami risk to the UK

北极气候变化是否会增加英国发生山体滑坡和海啸的风险

• 批准号: NE/K000152/1
• 负责人: David Tappin
• 金额: $ 14.19万
• 依托单位: British Geological Survey
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2012
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2012 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FK000152%2F1
• 关键词: Will; climate; change; Arctic; increase

Submarine landslides can be far larger than terrestrial landslides, and many generate destructive tsunamis. The Storegga Slide offshore Norway covers an area larger than Scotland and contains enough sediment to cover all of Scotland to a depth of 80 m. This huge slide occurred 8,200 years ago and extends for 800 km down slope. It produced a tsunami with a run up >20 m around the Norwegian Sea and 3-8 m on the Scottish mainland. The UK faces few other natural hazards that could cause damage on the scale of a repeat of the Storegga Slide tsunami. The Storegga Slide is not the only huge submarine slide in the Norwegian Sea. Published data suggest that there have been at least six such slides in the last 20,000 years. For instance, the Traenadjupet Slide occurred 4,000 years ago and involved ~900 km3 of sediment. Based on a recurrence interval of 4,000 years (2 events in the last 8,000 years, or 6 events in 20,000 years), there is a 5% probability of a major submarine slide, and possible tsunami, occurring in the next 200 years. Sedimentary deposits in Shetland dated at 1500 and 5500 years, in addition to the 8200 year Storegga deposit, are thought to indicate tsunami impacts and provide evidence that the Arctic tsunami hazard is still poorly understood.Given the potential impact of tsunamis generated by Arctic landslides, we need a rigorous assessment of the hazard they pose to the UK over the next 100-200 years, their potential cost to society, degree to which existing sea defences protect the UK, and how tsunami hazards could be incorporated into multi-hazard flood risk management. This project is timely because rapid climatic change in the Arctic could increase the risk posed by landslide-tsunamis. Crustal rebound associated with future ice melting may produce larger and more frequent earthquakes, such as probably triggered the Storegga Slide 8200 years ago. The Arctic is also predicted to undergo particularly rapid warming in the next few decades that could lead to dissociation of gas hydrates (ice-like compounds of methane and water) in marine sediments, weakening the sediment and potentially increasing the landsliding risk. Our objectives will be achieved through an integrated series of work blocks that examine the frequency of landslides in the Norwegian Sea preserved in the recent geological record, associated tsunami deposits in Shetland, future trends in frequency and size of earthquakes due to ice melting, slope stability and tsunami generation by landslides, tsunami inundation of the UK and potential societal costs. This forms a work flow that starts with observations of past landslides and evolves through modelling of their consequences to predicting and costing the consequences of potential future landslides and associated tsunamis. Particular attention will be paid to societal impacts and mitigation strategies, including examination of the effectiveness of current sea defences. This will be achieved through engagement of stakeholders from the start of the project, including government agencies that manage UK flood risk, international bodies responsible for tsunami warning systems, and the re-insurance sector. The main deliverables will be:(i) better understanding of frequency of past Arctic landslides and resulting tsunami impact on the UK(ii) improved models for submarine landslides and associated tsunamis that help to understand why certain landslides cause tsunamis, and others don't.(iii) a single modelling strategy that starts with a coupled landslide-tsunami source, tracks propagation of the tsunami across the Norwegian Sea, and ends with inundation of the UK coast. Tsunami sources of various sizes and origins will be tested (iv) a detailed evaluation of the consequences and societal cost to the UK of tsunami flooding , including the effectiveness of existing flood defences(v) an assessment of how climate change may alter landslide frequency and thus tsunami risk to the UK.

海底滑坡可能比陆地滑坡大得多，许多人会产生破坏性的海啸。挪威海上店面的STORGGA滑梯覆盖了大于苏格兰的地区，并含有足够的沉积物，可以覆盖苏格兰的整个地区，深度为80 m。这款巨大的幻灯片发生在8200年前，延伸了800公里。它产生了海啸，在挪威大海周围的跑步> 20 m，在苏格兰大陆上产生了3-8 m。英国几乎没有其他自然危害，可能会在Cortergga幻灯片海啸的重复规模上造成损害。 Storegga幻灯片并不是挪威海唯一的巨大潜艇滑梯。已发布的数据表明，在过去的20，000年中，至少有六个这样的幻灯片。例如，TraenAdjupet幻灯片发生在4000年前，涉及约900 km3的沉积物。基于4000年的复发间隔（过去8，000年的2次事件，或20，000年内的6个事件），在未来200年内发生了5％的主要潜艇幻灯片，可能发生的海啸。除8200年的库格储备外，还认为日期为1500年和5500年的安设市的沉积沉积物被认为表明了海啸的影响，并提供了证据表明，北极海啸危险仍然很糟糕地理解。北极的潜在影响是北极地区的潜在影响，我们需要100个北极地区的危险，而我们的北极地区则是严格的，他们在公共场所造成了危险的范围。社会，现有的海上防御能力保护英国的程度，以及如何将海啸危害纳入多危险的洪水风险管理中。该项目之所以及时，是因为北极的迅速气候变化可能会增加滑坡海湾的风险。与未来冰融化相关的地壳反弹可能会导致更大，更频繁的地震，例如可能触发了8200年前的Storegga幻灯片。预计在接下来的几十年中，北极也将特别快速变暖，这可能导致海洋沉积物中的气体水合物（类似甲烷和水的冰状化合物）解离，从而削弱了沉积物并可能增加陆地滑动风险。 Our objectives will be achieved through an integrated series of work blocks that examine the frequency of landslides in the Norwegian Sea preserved in the recent geological record, associated tsunami deposits in Shetland, future trends in frequency and size of earthquakes due to ice melting, slope stability and tsunami generation by landslides, tsunami inundation of the UK and potential societal costs.这形成了一个工作流程，从对过去滑坡的观察开始，并通过建模其后果来预测和使潜在的未来滑坡和相关海啸的后果进行建模。特别关注社会影响和缓解策略，包括检查当前海上防御能力的有效性。这将通过从项目开始开始利益相关者参与，包括管理英国洪水风险的政府机构，负责海啸警告系统的国际机构以及再保险部门。主要的可交付成果将是：（i）更好地理解过去北极滑坡的频率，以及海啸对英国的影响（II）改进了海底滑坡和相关的海啸的改进模型，这些模型有助于了解某些山脉为什么会引起海啸，而其他人则不会导致coupledsimun的单一建模策略。挪威海，以英国海岸的淹没结束。将测试各种规模和起源的海啸来源（iv）对英国海啸洪水的后果和社会成本进行详细评估，包括现有防洪措施的有效性（v）评估气候变化如何改变滑坡频率，从而改变土地频率，从而改变英国的Tsunami风险。