Pliocene Gateways ('PlioGate')

上新世网关（“PlioGate”）

• 批准号: NE/J012726/1
• 负责人: Paul Valdes
• 金额: $ 6.35万
• 依托单位: University of Bristol
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2012
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2012 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FJ012726%2F1
• 关键词: Pliocene; Gateways; PlioGate

In the wake of rising greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane, how will the climate evolve over the next 100 years? This question is paramount in the minds of scientists and politicians alike. However, despite over 100 years of research into climate sensitivity, the range of projected future warming remains startling wide; 1.5 to 6.1 degrees C for a doubling of atmospheric CO2. The disagreement between projections made by different climate models makes a considerable contribution to this uncertainty.Because a compromise must be reached between the limits of technology and our knowledge of climate processes, climate models are necessarily approximations of reality. As a result, all models differ in terms of the processes they represent and the resolution they run at. This is why climate models produce different results even though they are based on the same mathematical principles. It is also why it is crucial to test the models, to make sure that they really are capable of simulating Earth's climate.As there are no observations for future climate change, we look to the past to evaluate climate models. The instrumental record provides one such test of the model. However, throughout the short duration of our instrumental record, climate change has been small in comparison to projected changes for the next 100 years. This makes the instrumental record an inadequate definitive test of the models and we must test the models in other time periods too.The last time atmospheric CO2 was as high as today was during a period known as the late Pliocene, specifically around 3 million years ago. Obviously there are no direct observations from so long ago, but evidence from fossil-remains of Pliocene fauna and flora show a climate-dependent chemical and biological signal, which we can use to reconstruct the climate conditions that these fauna and flora lived in. The conclusions from this work suggest that climate was 2 to 3 degrees C warmer than the Pre-Industrial era, with particularly large amplitude warming in the N.Atlantic and Greenland-Iceland-Norwegian Sea. Therefore, the parallels between the Pliocene and future scenarios makes the Pliocene an ideal test case for models used to project future climate change.To date, model simulations for this period have been able to simulate the overall warmth of the Pliocene, but fail to reproduce the large amplitude warmth in the N.Atlantic GIN Sea. Recently, under the auspices of the international PlioMIP project, 14 different state-of-the-art climate models have been run for this period, but all have failed to reproduce the N.Atlantic/GIN Sea warming.We suggest that this mismatch is symptomatic of inadequate representation of ocean gateways during the Pliocene, rather than a fundamental error in climate models during warm periods. Recent work at the University of Bristol has showed that changing the way ocean gateways are set-up in a model of modern climate can impact regional climates by 5 degrees C or more. This proposal will investigate the role of two key ocean gateways, namely the Bering and Gibraltar Straits. Nobody has ever investigated whether changes in their exchange could have had an impact on Pliocene climate, despite the fact that there is evidence that the gateways were different and that they can have a big impact on climate. The results from the project will make a considerable contribution to improving our understanding of Pliocene climates and whether climate models work for past warm intervals.

随着温室气体（例如二氧化碳（CO2）和甲烷）的增长，气候在未来100年内将如何发展？这个问题在科学家和政客的心中至关重要。然而，尽管对气候敏感性进行了100多年的研究，但预计未来变暖的范围仍然令人震惊。 1.5至6.1摄氏度，用于加倍大气二氧化碳。不同气候模型做出的预测之间的分歧使得对这种不确定性做出了相当大的贡献。因为必须在技术范围和我们对气候过程的了解之间达成妥协，气候模型必然是现实的近似值。结果，所有模型在其表示的过程和运行的分辨率方面有所不同。这就是为什么气候模型即使基于相同的数学原理，也会产生不同的结果。这也是为什么测试模型，确保它们确实能够模拟地球气候至关重要的原因。由于没有观察到未来气候变化的观察，所以我们希望过去评估气候模型。仪器记录提供了模型的这样的测试。但是，在我们的乐器记录的整个短期中，与未来100年的预计变化相比，气候变化很小。这使得乐器记录是模型的确定性测试不足，我们也必须在其他时间段内测试模型。最后一次大气二氧化碳与今天在一个被称为上新世晚期的时期，特别是大约300万年前。显然，很久以前就没有直接观察，但是来自上新世动物群和植物群化石 - 雷神的证据表明了与气候有关的化学和生物学信号，我们可以用来重建这些动物和植物的气候条件，而这些工作的结论表明，这项工作的结论表明气候是2至3摄氏度的尤其是温暖的时代，而尤其是预处理，而又是富裕的时代，并且是在较大的时期，并且是既富有的，而是尤其是在繁华的时期，并且是属于预科生长的境界。格陵兰 - iceland-Norwegian Sea。因此，上新世和未来场景之间的相似之处使上新世成为用于投影未来气候变化的模型的理想测试用例。要迄今为止，这一时期的模型模拟能够模拟上新世的整体温暖，但未能重现N.Atlantic Gin Sea的大量幅度温暖。最近，在国际Pliomip项目的主持下，在此期间已经运行了14种不同的最先进的气候模型，但所有人都没有重现N.Atlantic/Gin Sea Hea的变暖。我们建议这种不匹配的症状是在温暖期间，在温暖时期内的基本错误中，海洋网关代表不足，而不是在气候模型期间在气候中的基本错误。布里斯托大学的最新工作表明，在现代气候模型中，改变海洋门户的设置方式可能会影响区域气候5度或更多。该提议将调查两个主要的海门口的作用，即白令和直布罗陀海峡。尽管有证据表明门户有所不同，并且他们对气候的影响很大，但没有人调查他们的交流变化是否会对上新世气候产生影响。该项目的结果将为提高我们对上新世气候的理解以及气候模型是否有效的暖间隔内为贡献做出了巨大贡献。

项目成果

On the identification of a Pliocene time slice for data-model comparison.

• DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2012.0515
• 发表时间: 2013-10-28
• 期刊: Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences
• 作者: Haywood AM;Dolan AM;Pickering SJ;Dowsett HJ;McClymont EL;Prescott CL;Salzmann U;Hill DJ;Hunter SJ;Lunt DJ;Pope JO;Valdes PJ
• 通讯作者: Valdes PJ

Modelling global-scale climate impacts of the late Miocene Messinian Salinity Crisis

• DOI: 10.5194/cp-10-607-2014
• 发表时间: 2014-01-01
• 期刊: CLIMATE OF THE PAST
• 影响因子: 4.3
• 作者: Ivanovic, R. F.;Valdes, P. J.;Gutjahr, M.
• 通讯作者: Gutjahr, M.

Climate model and proxy data constraints on ocean warming across the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum

• DOI: 10.1016/j.earscirev.2013.07.004
• 发表时间: 2013-10-01
• 期刊: EARTH-SCIENCE REVIEWS
• 影响因子: 12.1
• 作者: Dunkley Jones, Tom;Lunt, Daniel J.;Maslin, Mark
• 通讯作者: Maslin, Mark

Sensitivity of modern climate to the presence, strength and salinity of Mediterranean-Atlantic exchange in a global general circulation model

• DOI: 10.1007/s00382-013-1680-5
• 发表时间: 2014-02-01
• 期刊: CLIMATE DYNAMICS
• 影响因子: 4.6
• 作者: Ivanovic, Ruza F.;Valdes, Paul J.;Gutjahr, Marcus
• 通讯作者: Gutjahr, Marcus

Numerical simulations of oceanic oxygen cycling in the FAMOUS Earth-System model: FAMOUS-ES, version 1.0

FAMOUS 地球系统模型中海洋氧循环的数值模拟：FAMOUS-ES，版本 1.0

• DOI: 10.5194/gmd-7-1419-2014
• 发表时间: 2014
• 期刊: Geoscientific Model Development
• 影响因子: 5.1
• 作者: Williams J