SOC JUDGEMENT, CHOICE AND BELIEFS ABOUT PREDICTABILITY

SOC 对可预测性的判断、选择和信念

基本信息

批准号：
3376705
负责人：
RICHARD E NISBETT
金额：
$ 7.22万
依托单位：
UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN AT ANN ARBOR
依托单位国家：
美国
项目类别：
财政年份：
1983
资助国家：
美国
起止时间：
1983-08-01 至 1987-07-31
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/3376705
关键词：
behavior prediction belief choice developmental psychology judgment

项目摘要

When making a choice among objects or alternative courses of action, people often feel it is useful to seek out direct encounters with the objects or alternatives, even when these are costly. For example, people routinely interview job candidates and applicants for college and professional school. Conversely, people sometimes do not seek out or heavily weight reputational evidence, based on other people's views, even when these are readily obtainable. There is some empirical evidence, however, as well as a theoretical argument deriving from the Law of Large Numbers, indicating that one's personal samples of objects, particularly when these are based on only a small amount of evidence, may sometimes be poorly predictive of one's ultimate evaluations. Conversely, other people's samples, particularly if these are based on a large amount of evidence, may sometimes be highly predictive of one's evaluations. The proposed research will extend the available evidence on the question of predictability of one's ultimate evaluations of objects. It is anticipated that small personal samples of complex objects (e.g., interviews) will in general provide a relatively poor basis for evaluations, while reputational evidence about the objects, especially if based on a large number of people with a large amount of experience, will in general provide a relatively good basis for evaluations. People's beliefs about predictability of evaluations will also be studied. The anticipation is that people will in general overestimate the stability of their own small sample evaluations and underestimate the utility of other people's large sample evaluations. The exact nature of people's beliefs will be a guide as to how to educate people to make maximum use of evidence for effective social judgments and choices. The work is relevant to mental health in that it represents basic work on social cognition--that is, how people make use of evidence about complex social objects. It has direct relevance to the work of mental health professionals whose jobs consist in good part of making social judgments on the basis of evidence of varying kinds. The present work will speak to the utility of the kinds of evidence used by professionals.

当对象或替代行动方案之间做出选择时，人们通常认为与对象或直接相遇或替代方案，即使这些成本很高。例如，人们经常面试求职者和大学和专业的申请人学校。相反，人们有时不会寻找或重大体重基于他人的观点，声誉证据，即使这些证据是容易获得。但是，有一些经验证据以及从大量定律中得出的理论论点，表明那个人的对象样本，尤其是当这些样本基于仅在少量证据上，有时可能会无法预测一个人的最终评估。相反，其他人的样本，特别是如果这些基于大量证据，则可以有时可以高度预测一个人的评估。拟议的研究将扩展有关可预测性问题的可预测证据对象的最终评估。预计很小一般而言为评估提供相对较差的基础有关物体的证据，尤其是基于大量人一般来说，有丰富的经验，将提供相对的良好的评估基础。人们对可预测性的信念评估也将进行研究。人们期待的是人们会进入普遍高估了自己的小样本评估的稳定性并低估了他人大量样本评估的效用。人们信仰的确切本质将是有关如何教育的指南人们最大程度地利用证据进行有效的社会判断和选择。这项工作与心理健康有关，因为它代表了基本从事社会认知的工作 - 也就是说，人们如何利用有关的证据复杂的社会对象。它与精神工作有直接的相关性卫生专业人员的工作属于社交活动根据不同种类的证据进行判断。目前的工作将谈谈专业人士使用的各种证据的实用性。