MODEL OF AGE-SPECIFIC MARITAL FERTILITY

特定年龄婚姻生育力模型

• 批准号: 3328278
• 负责人: JAMES W WOOD
• 金额: $ 7.12万
• 依托单位: PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIVERSITY, THE
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 1992
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1992-06-01 至 1995-05-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/3328278
• 关键词: Africa; Taiwan; United States; age at pregnancy; birth; chorionic gonadotropin; contraceptives; female; fertility; fertilization; luteinizing hormone; marriage /marital status; mathematical model; menstrual cycle; model; model design /development; population survey; pregnancy; pregnancy loss; questionnaires; sex behavior

Fecundability is the monthly probability of conception. It determines the waiting time to conception,thus affecting the length of birth intervals. Both physiological and behavioral factors interact to determine fecundability. A model of these interactions has been developed and validated with data from U.S. women. This proposal extends the model by incorporating new theoretical and empirical developments; it also provides methods for testing model predictions against empirical data on the interval from marriage to first birth. To examine both the physiological and behavioral components of fecundability, several sources of data will be used. Two of these include a large number of menstrual cycles for which daily coital diaries and daily measures of urinary luteinizing hormone will be available. These data will be used to estimate the distribution of intercourse by cycle day, as well as by partners' ages, marital duration, and time since last intercourse. A third data set will be used to investigate heterogeneity in ovarian cycles and its effects on fecundability. The final collection of data comes from a series of surveys in Taiwan, which will provide observed distributions of first birth intervals to be analyzed using life-table techniques. The proposed research addresses several issues concerning contemporary reproductive patterns. The combination of delayed onset of childbearing and truncation of childbearing through surgical sterilization has led to concentration of reproduction in a narrow segment of most women's life spans. As a result, there are rising public concerns about the expected waiting time to next conception, the likelihood of pregnancy loss, and possible problems with pathological infertility. The proposed research provides a theoretical and empirical basis for evaluating these issues. More generally, this research is part of an effort to integrate biological processes into demographic models. The collaboration described in this proposal, with its unusual combination of biological and demographic skills, fosters an increasing dialogue between biologists and social scientists concerned with human fertility.

生产性是每月受孕的概率。它决定了 等待构想的时间，从而影响出生时间 间隔。生理和行为因素都与 确定可闻性。这些相互作用的模型已经 通过来自美国妇女的数据开发和验证。这个建议 通过合并新的理论和经验来扩展模型 发展；它还提供了测试模型预测的方法 反对从婚姻到第一诞生间隔的经验数据。 检查的生理和行为成分 可达性，将使用几种数据来源。其中两个 包括大量的月经周期 日记和每日尿叶葡萄糖激素的措施将是 可用的。这些数据将用于估计 按周期日的性交以及伴侣的年龄，婚姻 持续时间和自上次性交以来的时间。第三个数据集将是 用于研究卵巢周期中的异质性及其对 可闻性。最终数据收集来自一系列 台湾的调查将提供观察到的第一次分布 使用生命表技术分析的出生间隔。 拟议的研究解决了有关当代的几个问题 生殖模式。延迟育儿发作的结合 通过手术灭菌的生育截断已导致 在大多数女性生活的狭窄部分中的繁殖集中 跨度。结果，公众对预期的关注不断增加 等待下一个概念，怀孕丧失的可能性和 病理不育症可能存在的问题。拟议的研究 为评估这些问题提供了理论和经验基础。 更一般地，这项研究是整合的努力的一部分 生物学过程中的人口模型。合作 在该提案中描述了其生物学的异常组合 和人群技能，促进了越来越多的对话 与人类生育有关的生物学家和社会科学家。