U.S. Fertility and the Pandemic: Changing Fertility Plans in an Era of Uncertainty and Stress

美国生育率与疫情：在不确定性和压力时代改变生育计划

• 批准号: 10490845
• 负责人: WENDY D. MANNING
• 金额: $ 7.1万
• 依托单位: BOWLING GREEN STATE UNIVERSITY
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2021
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2021-09-17 至 2024-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/10490845
• 关键词: Accounting; Adolescent; American; Attitude; Behavior; Child; Climate; Couples; Data; Data Collection; Data Set; Decision Making; Demographic Survey; Drops; Economics; Ethnic Origin; Etiology; Exposure to; Family; Fertility; Fertility Rates; Fertility expectation; Future; Gender; Goals; Group Identifications; Health; Investigation; Justice; Lead; Life; Longitudinal Studies; Measurement; Measures; Mission; Modeling; National Institute of Child Health and Human Development; Planning Theory; Process; Proxy; Race; Recovery; Reporting; Research; Research Personnel; Respondent; Role; Social Class; Spouses; Stress; Surveys; Time; Time Study; Uncertainty; Variant; Vulnerable Populations; Woman; Work; aging population; caregiving; causal model; child bearing; cohort; design; experience; family building; fighting; innovation; marginalized population; member; men; pandemic disease; population based; racial minority; response; sociodemographics; theories; time use; young adult

Abstract Low U.S. fertility levels have been well documented, with widespread concern that low fertility levels may not rebound. Fertility started to decline during the Great Recession (2007-2008) and never responded to improvements in the economy. The ongoing pandemic has led to widespread uncertainty and stress about health, the economy, relationships, and family life, which may result in further fertility declines. In this new climate men and women may be in the process of developing new schema, broader sets of interrelated attitudes that guide decisions and behaviors. We are now in a critical time period to assess Americans’ fertility plans and schemas and potentially to contribute to a fertility recovery. Further, the deleterious effects of the pandemic will not be experienced evenly, and will have the greatest impact on the most economically marginalized groups. Although researchers have documented sociodemographic variation in fertility, these investigations remain incomplete because existing data cannot identify the mechanisms underlying these differentials in the current pandemic climate. While there have been speculations about the implications of the pandemic on fertility, researchers have been hampered in analyses of the effects of the pandemic due to a lack of population-based data focused specifically on fertility during this time period. We draw on two complementary data collections occurring during the pandemic that allow analysis of fertility plans from differing perspectives. First, the Toledo Adolescent Relationships Study (TARS) is the only major longitudinal data currently in the field designed to assess changes in fertility plans, making it possible to establish causality. Second, the National Couples’ Health and Time Use Study (NCHAT) includes the necessary design and measurement to investigate the effects of partners and spouses on fertility plans. Aim 1 will assess fertility expectations during the pandemic accounting for variation in exposure to and experiences of relational and financial uncertainty and stress, allowing identification of the groups most likely to alter their fertility goals. Aim 2 will examine the role of uncertainty and stress in fertility decision-making from the perspectives of both members of the couple using direct and proxy reports from spouse and partners in the NCHAT. Aim 3 will capitalize on the TARS’ longitudinal data (collected pre-pandemic and midst- pandemic) to determine the magnitude of change in fertility expectations and to determine how uncertainty and stress influence fertility plans. Together the findings set the groundwork for future work on fertility in this era, set the basis for fertility projections, and identify possible targets for a fertility recovery.

抽象的 美国的生育水平较低，已经有充分的文献记载，并且关注较低的生育能力 水平可能不会反弹。大萧条期间（2007-2008）和 从来没有回应经济的改善。正在进行的大流行导致 对健康，经济，人际关系和家庭生活的不确定性和压力， 这可能导致进一步的生育能力下降。在这个新的气候中，男人和女人可能在 开发新模式，更广泛的相互关联的参与者的过程，以指导决策 和行为。我们现在处于关键时期，以评估美国人的生育计划和 模式，有可能为生育能力恢复做出贡献。此外，删除的效果 大流行将不会均匀地经历，并且对最大的影响会产生最大的影响 经济边缘化群体。尽管研究人员已经记录了社会人口统计学 生育能力的差异，这些投资仍然不完整，因为现有数据无法识别 在当前大流行气候下这些差异的基础机制。那里有 是关于大流行对生育能力的影响的猜测，研究人员一直是 由于缺乏基于人群的数据，在分析大流行的影响的分析中受到了阻碍 在这段时间内专门针对生育。我们借鉴了两个完整的数据 大流行期间发生的收集允许分析生育计划与区分 观点。首先，托莱多青少年关系研究（TAR）是唯一的主要 目前旨在评估生育计划的变化的现场纵向数据 可能建立因果关系。第二，国家夫妇的健康和时间使用研究 （NCHAT）包括必要的设计和测量以调查伴侣的影响 和配偶生育计划。 AIM 1将评估大流行期间的生育期望 考虑到关系和财务不确定性的接触和经历的差异 和压力，允许确定最有可能改变其生育目标的群体。 AIM 2意志 从不确定性和压力在生育决策中的作用 这对夫妇的两位成员都使用配偶和合作伙伴的直接和代理报告 NCHAT。 AIM 3将大写TAR的纵向数据（收集的次数和中等 大流行），以确定生育率期望变化的幅度并确定如何 不确定性和压力会影响生育计划。研究结果为 在这个时代，未来关于生育的工作，为生育项目奠定了基础，并确定可能 生育能力恢复的目标。