Mathematical and computational modeling of suicidal thoughts and behaviors

自杀想法和行为的数学和计算模型

基本信息

批准号：
10437592
负责人：
Shirley Wang
金额：
$ 3.28万
依托单位：
HARVARD UNIVERSITY
依托单位国家：
美国
项目类别：
财政年份：
2021
资助国家：
美国
起止时间：
2021-07-01 至 2023-06-30
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/10437592
关键词：
Address Affective Behavior Behavioral Biological Models Cause of Death Cellular Phone Climate Clinical Cognitive Complex Computer Models Computer software Computing Methodologies Data Development Differential Equation Ecology Ecosystem Environment Equation Evaluation Family Feeling hopeless Feeling suicidal Funding Goals Influentials Intervention Language Longitudinal Studies Mathematics Medical Care Costs Mentorship Methods Modeling National Institute of Mental Health Nature Persons Pneumonia Positioning Attribute Process Productivity Psychiatry Psychologist Public Health Research Research Training Risk Scientific Advances and Accomplishments Specific qualifier value Specificity Structure Suicide Suicide prevention System Technology Temperature Testing Time Training Tuberculosis United States Water Weather Work base behavior observation career computer code computer science computerized tools data modeling dynamic system experience improved innovation insight mathematical methods mathematical model mathematical sciences mathematical theory multilevel analysis negative affect novel programs rate of change real time monitoring skills social factors statistics suicidal suicidal behavior suicide model suicide rate theories wearable sensor technology

项目摘要

Project Summary/Abstract Suicide is a devastating public health concern. More than 40,000 people die by suicide in the US each year, making it the 10th leading cause of death and responsible for >$30 billion in lost productivity and medical costs. Unfortunately, whereas scientific advances have led to significant declines in other leading causes of death (e.g., pneumonia, tuberculosis) over the past century, the current suicide rate is nearly identical to the early 1900s. In order to improve prediction and prevention of suicide, a better mechanistic understanding of risk and protective processes underlying suicidal thoughts and behaviors is needed. Computational psychiatry holds such promise for advancing suicide research, particularly through building and testing formal theories. Although many influential suicide theories have existed for decades, these have all been instantiated verbally, which renders them underspecified by nature (due to the inherent imprecision of language). On the other hand, using tools from computational psychiatry, formal theories are instantiated in mathematical equations and computer code. This requires more specificity and precision of the exact strength, form, and time scale of theorized effects. Indeed, formal theories have led to significant advances and breakthroughs in other scientific fields concerned with the understanding and prediction of complex systems (e.g., ecosystems, climate). Thus, the proposed project aims to address this major gap in suicide research by using mathematical and computational modeling to build, evaluate, and test a formal theory of suicide. The candidate and mentorship team, including leading experts in suicide and computational modeling of complex dynamic systems, have developed a preliminary theory of suicidal thoughts and behaviors encompassing cognitive, affective, behavioral, and social factors. Aim 1 of the project is to formalize each of these associations using differential equations (a family of mathematical models that specify the relationship between functions and their derivatives and are extremely useful for modeling change in complex systems over time). Aim 2 is to transform these mathematical equations into computer code to simulate artificial data, allowing for direct observation of the behavior implied by the theory. This step will allow for an evaluation of whether the theory is able to produce fundamental, known phenomena about suicidal thoughts and behaviors. Finally, Aim 3 will leverage data from an ongoing NIMH-funded intensive longitudinal study of suicidal thoughts and behaviors (N = 300) to evaluate the theory-based simulated artificial data against empirical data collected in real-time. The proposed study’s greatest potential impacts are to develop and evaluate the first formal theory of suicidal thoughts and behaviors using mathematical and computational modeling, as well as to promote a program of research uniting the two major NIMH priorities of suicide prevention and computational psychiatry. Together, this can advance the mechanistic understanding of suicidal thoughts and behaviors to improve suicide prediction, as well as provide actionable information about novel treatment and intervention targets for suicide prevention.

项目摘要/摘要自杀是毁灭性的公共卫生问题。每年美国有40,000多人因自杀而死，使其成为死亡的第十个主要原因，并负责损失300亿美元的生产力和医疗费用。不幸的是，尽管科学进步导致其他主要死亡原因大幅下降（例如肺炎，结核病）在过去的一个世纪中，当前的自杀率几乎与早期相同 1900年代。为了改善预测和预防自杀，对风险和需要自杀思想和行为的保护过程。计算精神病学成立这种有望推进自杀研究的希望，尤其是通过建立和测试形式理论。尽管数十年来已经存在许多有影响力的自杀理论，但这些理论都是在口头上实例化的，这使它们被自然界指定（由于语言的固有形式）。另一方面，使用计算精神病学的工具，在数学方程式中实例化了形式理论，计算机代码。这需要更特异性和精确性的精确性，形式和时间尺度理论效应。确实，正式理论已导致其他科学的显着进步和突破与复杂系统的理解和预测有关的领域（例如，生态系统，气候）。那，拟议的项目旨在通过使用数学和计算建模以建立，评估和测试形式的自杀理论。候选人和心态团队，包括复杂动态系统的自杀和计算建模专家，拥有开发了一种自杀思想和行为的初步理论，包括认知，情感，行为和社会因素。该项目的目标1是使用差异化正式化这些关联方程式（一个数学模型家族，指定功能及其其功能之间的关系衍生物，对于随着时间的推移进行复杂系统的变化非常有用。目标2是变换这些数学方程式到计算机代码中以模拟人造数据，从而直接观察理论所隐含的行为。此步骤将允许评估该理论是否能够产生了有关自杀思想和行为的基本，已知现象。最后，AIM 3将利用来自正在进行的NIMH资助的自杀思想和行为的密集纵向研究（n = 300）到根据实时收集的经验数据，评估基于理论的模拟人工数据。提议研究的最大潜在影响是发展和评估自杀思想的第一个正式理论和使用数学和计算建模的行为，并促进研究计划团结自杀预防和计算精神病学的两个主要NIMH优先事项。在一起，可以促进对自杀思想和行为的机械理解，以改善自杀预测，如以及提供有关新型治疗和预防自杀的干预目标的可行信息。

项目成果

期刊论文数量（9）

专著数量（0）

科研奖励数量（0）

会议论文数量（0）

专利数量（0）

Body dissatisfaction, ideals, and identity in the development of disordered eating among adolescent ballet dancers.

青少年芭蕾舞演员饮食失调发展中的身体不满、理想和身份。

DOI：
10.1002/eat.24005
发表时间：
2023
期刊：
The International journal of eating disorders
影响因子：
0
作者：
Ohashi,Yuri-GraceB;Wang,ShirleyB;Shingleton,RebeccaM;Nock,MatthewK
通讯作者：
Nock,MatthewK

An empirical taxonomy of reward response patterns in a transdiagnostic eating disorder sample.

DOI：
10.1016/j.eatbeh.2021.101531
发表时间：
2021-08
期刊：
Eating behaviors
影响因子：
2.8
作者：
Haynos AF;Wang SB;LeMay-Russell S;Lavender JM;Pearson CM;Mathis KJ;Peterson CB;Crow SJ
通讯作者：
Crow SJ

Open science practices for eating disorders research.

DOI：
10.1002/eat.23607
发表时间：
2021-10
期刊：
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF EATING DISORDERS
影响因子：
5.5
作者：
Burke, Natasha L.;Frank, Guido K. W.;Hilbert, Anja;Hildebrandt, Thomas;Klump, Kelly L.;Thomas, Jennifer J.;Wade, Tracey D.;Walsh, B. Timothy;Wang, Shirley B.;Weissman, Ruth Striegel
通讯作者：
Weissman, Ruth Striegel

Functional assessment of restrictive eating: A three-study clinically heterogeneous and transdiagnostic investigation.