気候変動に伴う波浪および波エネルギーの将来変化予測

预测气候变化导致的波浪和波浪能的未来变化

• 批准号: 16F16377
• 负责人: 森 信人
• 金额: $ 0.9万
• 依托单位: Kyoto University
• 依托单位国家: 日本
• 项目类别: Grant-in-Aid for JSPS Fellows
• 财政年份: 2016
• 资助国家: 日本
• 起止时间: 2016-11-07 至 2019-03-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-16F16377/
• 关键词: wave climate; wave energy; wave modeling; 波浪; 地球温暖化; 影響評価; 沿岸災害; ペルシャ湾

In this project, we have produced the wave climate data for historical and future projections for 50 years (25 years in each of historical and future periods) in high accuracy as a reliable resource of wave climate dataset in data-scarce region, Indian Ocean. We used a super-resolution wind field of MRI-AGCM3.2S, a product of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), for the first time in the study area to inspect the climate change impact on various ocean phenomena. For this purpose, I provided the fellow with the research facilities from Coastal Engineering Lab, DPRI, Kyoto University for high speed numerical modeling as well as model’s input wind data, and scientific and technical support for performing the numerical model on our cluster. The modeling was performed and the wave characteristics was produced for the target 50 years, and the wave climate was assessed for historical and future projections in the whole domain and also in nearshore areas. The analysis was carried out for both mean and extreme values of the wind and wave parameters and in terms of monthly, seasonal and annual variations, and the results of historical and future projections were compared to investigate the impact of climate change. We suggested a novel index for considering both short and long-term variations in definition of climate stability and determining the most appropriate locations for wave energy extraction.

在这个项目中，我们在印度洋数据级别地区的Wave气候数据集的可靠资源中以高精度为历史和未来项目的波浪气候数据（在历史和未来的每个时期中为25年）。我们在研究区域首次使用了日本气象局（JMA）的MRI-AGCM3.2S的超分辨率风场，以检查气候变化对各种海洋现象的影响。为此，我为研究员提供了沿海工程实验室的研究设施，DPRI，京都大学高速数值建模以及模型的输入风数据，以及在我们的集群上执行数值模型的科学和技术支持。进行了建模，并生产了50年目标的波浪特性，并评估了整个领域以及近岸地区的历史和未来项目的波浪气候。对风和波参数的平均值和极端值进行了分析，并在每月，季节性和年度变化方面进行了分析，并将历史和未来预测的结果进行比较，以研究气候变化的影响。我们提出了一个新的指数，用于考虑气候稳定性定义的短期和长期变化，并确定最合适的波能提取位置。

项目成果

Future projection of wave energy in Indian Ocean based on high resolution MRI-AGCM3.2S projection

基于高分辨率MRI-AGCM3.2S投影的印度洋波浪能未来预测

• 发表时间: 2018
• 作者: Kamranzad;B.
• 通讯作者: B.

Regional Wave Climate Projection Based on Super-High-Resolution MRI-AGCM3.2S, Indian Ocean

基于超高分辨率MRI-AGCM3.2S的印度洋区域波浪气候预测

• DOI: 10.2208/kaigan.74.i_1351
• 发表时间: 2018
• 期刊: Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B2 (Coastal Engineering)
• 作者: Kamranzad B;Mori N.
• 通讯作者: Mori N.

Swansea University(英国)

斯旺西大学（英国）

Performances of Long-Term Wave Hindcasts in the Northern Indian Ocean

北印度洋长期波浪后报的表现

• 发表时间: 2017
• 期刊: 土木学会論文集 B2 (海岸工学)
• 作者: Kamranzad B;Mori N.;Bahareh KAMRANZAD・Nobuhito MORI・Tomoya SHIMURA
• 通讯作者: Bahareh KAMRANZAD・Nobuhito MORI・Tomoya SHIMURA