A STUDY ON CLIMATIC AND HYDROLOGIC INSPECTION AND RISK MANAGEMENT OF DROUGHT IN 1994

1994年干旱气候水文监测及风险管理研究

基本信息

批准号：
07309008
负责人：
IKEBUCHI Shuichi
金额：
$ 2.62万
依托单位：
KYOTO UNIVERSITY
依托单位国家：
日本
项目类别：
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
财政年份：
1995
资助国家：
日本
起止时间：
1995 至 1996
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-07309008/
关键词：
Drought Pattern classification Prediction of Precipitation Drought duration curve Structure of water usage Consciousness of water save Risk analysis Secular storage 平成6年渇水長期気象予測渇水調整リスクマネジメントアンケート調査総合的渇水対策

项目摘要

(A) We predicted precipitation at 19 points in Japan as basic points by Newral Network as well as classified the pattern of monthly average altitude distribution at 500hPa, monthly average temperature distribution of the surface of the sea in the middle latitudes, temperature and precipitation in Japan.(B) We drew the drought duration curve at 14 points in the whole country which have different climatic properties and indicated the drought duration property at each point clearly. Added to these, we evaluated the return period of precipitation (one to four months precipitation and twelve months precipitation) at 46 points in the whole country during the summer and mapped the whole country using the return period as an index.(C) We obtained information through a questionnaire about the influence of household water consumption by restricting the water control at the period of water shortage and analyzed the home service from the side of water amount which is necessary to produce and consu … More me, the service starting point, the time for the production and the consumption frequency.(D) We analyzed the trend of the activity taking drought both in Fukuoka and Takamatsu for example on the assumption that the newspaper information regarding drought can substitute the activity of social interests in drought indirectly. Besides we made the model of the relationships between the consciousness and the actions on the basis of the real behavior of general inhabitants for save water(E) We took a municipality in Fukuoka metropolitan area for example and analyzed practical use of water resource in the urban area taking account of the drought level and the water-utilization safety level by using a risk analysis method. Furthermore we examined the usable water amount about wide area use of water resource.(F) We studied the possibility of the secular storage method on the basis of the appearance property analysis in the year of much rain and a light rain and tried to calculate the probability of drought evasion keeping flood control level. Less

(A) 利用神经网络对日本 19 个点作为基点进行降水预测，并对 500hPa 月平均海拔分布、中纬度海面月平均气温分布、日本。(B)我们在全国具有不同气候特性的14个点绘制了干旱持续时间曲线，并清楚地表明了每个点的干旱持续时间特性。除此之外，我们还评估了降水重现期（1至4个月）。降水量和夏季全国46个点的月降水量），以重现期为指标绘制全国地图。（C）通过问卷调查，了解十二点限水对家庭用水的影响。缺水时期，从生产和消费所需的水量、服务起点、生产时间和消费频率等方面分析了家庭服务。(D)分析了家庭服务的趋势。福冈和高松的干旱活动例如，假设报纸有关干旱的信息可以间接替代干旱中的社会利益活动，此外，我们还根据广大居民的真实节水行为，建立了意识与行动之间的关系模型。 E) 以福冈都市圈内的某市町村为例，考虑干旱程度和用水安全水平，采用风险分析法对市区水资源的实际利用情况进行了分析，并考察了可用水量。关于水资源的大面积利用。(F)在多雨、小雨年份的表象特性分析的基础上，研究了长期蓄水方法的可能性，并尝试计算了避旱保持防洪水平较小的概率。