Analysis and Prediction of Local Heavy Rainfall in Mountainous and Urban Area

山区和城市局地暴雨分析及预报

基本信息

批准号：
07555160
负责人：
IKEBUCHI Shuichi
金额：
$ 7.55万
依托单位：
KYOTO UNIVERSITY
依托单位国家：
日本
项目类别：
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (A)
财政年份：
1995
资助国家：
日本
起止时间：
1995 至 1997
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-07555160/
关键词：
Local Heavy Rainfall Short Term Rainfall Forecast Cloud Microphysics Hydological and Meteorological Observation GPS Meteorogy Water Vapor Disturbance Cumulus Scale Severe Rainfall Prediction System 水分・気象観測水蒸気擾乱積雲スケール雲物理モデルラジオゾン

项目摘要

In this project, investigators have proposed the severe rainfall prediction system as well as they have analyzed the local heavy rainfall. The analysis of local heavy rainfall has been done by twoapproaches. First, investigators observed several severe reinfall events mainly with radio sonde and rain gage under condition of severe rainfall in Baiu. Second, investigators developed a cumulus cloud model which has terrain following coordinate and detailed microphysics model. Using the model, investigators simulate severe rainfall events. The processes and result of the analysis is as follows ;1) Hydrological and meteorological observations have been done under condition of severe rainfall which came mainly from Baiu fronts at the Kuzuryu river basin in Fukui Prefecture. Observation period is June 20-30,1996 and July 2-10,1997. Observations have been done with radio sonds (two to three hourly), optical and normal rain gage (once par one to ten minutes), car bone X band radar (continuous).2 … More ) Numerical cumulus model which has detailed cloud microphysics have been computed with observation data as initial and verification data. Investigators analyze the effect of topography, wind field, atmospheric and thermodynamic stability and water vapor on cloud microphysical processes which control the cumulus generation and dissipation. As results of the analysis, investigators obtained results that the amount of hail generation is important factor for rainfall amount from cumulus. Moreover, they found that water vapor and vertical wind are important factor for hail generation.3) Investigators proposed that GPS is suitable observation system for water vapor observation. Moreover, they developed a new equation system in order to obtain the water vapor disturbance of cumulus scale using GPS.Investigators found that the equation system made good results using numerical simulation data. They also investigated efficiency of the equation system using observed GPS data. Investigation found that the equation system is effective under good observation condition. They also found that the observation data are affected by many kind of error sources.Finally, the vertical wind field observation by Doppler radar and water vapor observation by GPS are proposed as a effective observation system for severe rainfall prediction. Less

在本项目中，调查人员提出了强降雨预报系统，并对局地强降雨进行了分析。对局地强降雨的分析主要通过两种方法进行：首先，调查人员主要利用无线电探空仪和雨量计观测了几次强降雨事件。其次，研究人员建立了具有地形跟随坐标和详细微物理模型的积云模型，研究人员利用该模型模拟了强降雨事件的过程和结果。和气象观测是在主要来自福井县九头龙河流域的白尤锋的强降雨条件下进行的，观测期为1996年6月20日至30日和1997年7月2日至10日，利用无线电波进行了观测。每小时三趟）、光学雨量计和普通雨量计（一到十分钟一次）、汽车骨 X 波段雷达（连续）。2 … 更多）数值研究人员利用观测数据作为初始和验证数据，计算了具有详细云微物理的积云模型，分析了地形、风场、大气和热力学稳定性以及水蒸气对控制积云产生和消散的云微物理过程的影响。通过分析，调查人员得出冰雹产生量是积云降雨量的重要因素，并且发现水汽和垂直风是冰雹产生的重要因素。3）调查人员提出GPS是合适的。此外，他们开发了一个新的方程系统，以便利用GPS获得积云尺度的水汽扰动。研究人员发现，利用数值模拟数据，该方程系统取得了良好的效果。他们还研究了该方程的效率。调查发现，在良好的观测条件下，该方程组是有效的。他们还发现，观测数据受到多种误差源的影响。最后，多普勒雷达的垂直风场观测和水汽观测。 GPS 被提议作为一种有效的观测系统强降雨预报。