Trade between Japan, the U.S., and Asia after the Asian Financial Crisis - Quantitative Analysis by Using Quantum and the Price Indices -

亚洲金融危机后的日本、美国和亚洲之间的贸易 - 使用量子和价格指数的定量分析 -

基本信息

批准号：
13630040
负责人：
NAGATA Masahiro
金额：
$ 2.05万
依托单位：
Saitama University
依托单位国家：
日本
项目类别：
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
财政年份：
2001
资助国家：
日本
起止时间：
2001 至 2002
项目状态：
已结题

项目摘要

As for the Asian financial crisis in 1997 and the subsequent recovery, many analyzes are made mainly from financial aspects. However, the analysis through trade activity is not necessarily enough. Furthermore, in many cases, trade data is measured in value terms such as dollar or the national currency basis and not quantitative terms, partly because the detailed trade data in quantitative terms did not exist. In the case of the Asian financial crisis in which the exchange rate of the Asian currencies fluctuated sharply, it is required to analyze by using export or import quantity index. In this research, we analyze what influence the Asian financial crisis had on trade between Japan, the U. S. , and Asia by using quantity and price indices of trade. The major points of the research are as follows.(1) In the exports side, the export quantity from Japan to South Korea, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Thailand reduced dramatically after the financial crisis. However, they bottomed out in 1Q-2Q of 1998, and by 2000 recovered quickly to the level of those before the financial crisis.(2) In respect of imports, although Japanese import value from Asian countries decreased, import quantity increased steadily even after the financial crisis. Considering the Japan's low or negative economic growth rate after 1998, the depreciation of the Asian currencies is supposed to play an important role in expanding the export volume from these countries to Japan.(3) The IMF is often blamed that their policy advice to the Asian countries worsened further their business climate and accelerated the capital flight from them. However, if we take into account that they almost recovered from a serious damage in such a short period, temporary depression could curb the inflation at the initial stage and lead to a following steady recovery. In that sense, the IMF's policy should be reevaluated.

对于1997年亚洲金融危机以及随后的复苏，很多分析主要是从金融方面进行的。然而，仅通过贸易活动进行分析还不够。此外，在许多情况下，贸易数据是以美元或本国货币等价值形式衡量的，而不是以定量形式衡量的，部分原因是不存在以定量形式表示的详细贸易数据。在亚洲金融危机导致亚洲货币汇率大幅波动的情况下，需要采用出口或进口数量指数来分析。在本研究中，我们利用贸易数量和价格指数来分析亚洲金融危机对日本、美国和亚洲之间贸易的影响。研究要点如下：(1)在出口方面，金融危机后日本对韩国、马来西亚、印度尼西亚、泰国的出口量大幅减少。但在1998年一季度至二季度触底，到2000年迅速恢复到金融危机前的水平。 (2)进口方面，虽然日本从亚洲国家的进口金额有所下降，但进口数量在金融危机后仍稳步增长。金融危机。考虑到1998年以后日本经济的低增长或负增长，亚洲货币的贬值应该对扩大这些国家对日本的出口量发挥重要作用。(3)国际货币基金组织经常被指责为他们对日本的政策建议。亚洲国家营商环境进一步恶化，资本外逃加速。但如果考虑到它们在如此短的时间内几乎从严重的损害中恢复过来，暂时的萧条可能会抑制初期的通货膨胀，并导致随后的稳定复苏。从这个意义上说，国际货币基金组织的政策应该重新评估。