Regional Disaster Prevention Planning Guide based on Seismic Risk Assessment for Earthquakes Occurring Near Urban Districts

基于城市地区附近地震地震风险评估的区域防灾规划指南

• 批准号: 10450198
• 负责人: OKADA Shigeyuki
• 金额: $ 2.37万
• 依托单位: Hokkaido University
• 依托单位国家: 日本
• 项目类别: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
• 财政年份: 1998
• 资助国家: 日本
• 起止时间: 1998 至 1999
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-10450198/
• 关键词: Risk assessment; Regional disaster prevention planning; Near field earthquake; Fault parameter; Seismic intensity distribution; Sapporo city; Decision making; Analytical Hierarchical Approach; 地震防災計画; 札幌市

Near field earthquakes bring catastrophic disasters in large urbanized cities. Local governments must prepare the regional mitigation plans on the basis of seismic hazard and risk estimation in order to protect the building environment and the population. In case of Sapporo City, that is our research target, it is difficult to specify the source parameters of near field earthquakes affected the populated area. It is necessary to investigate the influence of indefinite parameters upon the risk assessment.In this paper, we enforced an importance of the plural estimation of seismic damages by probable earthquakes occurring near the urban area. Paying attention to the difficulties of taking measures against all of the cases on estimated damages, we gave an example of the rule of making decision about the priority of mitigation plans from the point of view of earthquake engineering and political science. Finally, we applied the Analytical Hierarchical Approach proposed by T.L.Saaty to decision-making on priority measures for earthquake prevention planning.

近场地震给大城市带来灾难性的灾难。地方政府必须在地震灾害和风险评估的基础上制定区域减灾规划，以保护建筑环境和人口。就我们的研究目标札幌市而言，很难确定影响人口稠密地区的近场地震的震源参数。有必要研究不定参数对风险评估的影响。在本文中，我们强调了对城市地区附近可能发生的地震的地震损害进行多元估计的重要性。考虑到对所有估计损失情况采取措施的困难，我们从地震工程和政治学的角度举例说明了减灾方案优先级的决策规则。最后，我们将T.L.Saaty提出的层次分析法应用于防震规划优先措施的决策。

项目成果

Tomatsu M.: "SEISMIC RISK ESTIMATION WITH CONSIDERING UNCERTAINTY OF FAULT PARAMETERS FOR NEAR FIELD EARTHQUAKES"Proc.of World Conf.On Earthquake Engineering. 12. CD-ROM (2000)

Tomatsu M.：“考虑近场地震断层参数不确定性的地震风险估计”Proc.of World Conf.On Earthquake Engineering。

Tomatsu Makoto and Shigeyuki Okada: "Seismic Risk Estimation with Considering Uncertainty of Fault Parameters."12th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering.. (2000)

Tomatsu Makoto 和 Shigeyuki Okada：“考虑断层参数不确定性的地震风险估计。”第十二届世界地震工程会议..（2000 年）

岡田成幸,戸松 誠: "都市直下地震を想定した入力地震動の考え方と地域防災計画への指針"日本建築学会構造系論文報告集. 530(印刷中). (2000)

Nariyuki Okada、Makoto Tomatsu：“输入地震运动的概念和假设城市地震的区域防灾规划指南”，日本建筑学会结构工程论文报告 530（印刷中）。

Sayaka Murata and Shigeyuki Okada: "The Way of Regional Disaster Prevention Planning for Near Field Earthquakes, Part 1. Approach for Making Decision about a Priority Countermeasure"Summaries of Technical Papers of Annual Meeting, AIJ. B-2. 101-102 (1999)

村田沙耶香和冈田茂之：“近场地震区域防灾规划之道，第 1 部分：优先对策的决策方法”年会技术论文摘要，AIJ。

岡田成幸: "地震動予測に与える断層パラメータの影響 -札幌市域におけるケーススタディ-"日本建築学会地盤震動シンポジウム. 27. 77-82 (1999)

Nariyuki Okada：“断层参数对地震运动预测的影响 - 札幌市区的案例研究 -”日本建筑学会地震研讨会 27. 77-82 (1999)。