Construction of a universal model for casualty reduction strategies in an earthquake

构建地震伤亡减少策略通用模型

基本信息

批准号：
02044043
负责人：
OHTA Yutaka
金额：
$ 4.48万
依托单位：
University of Tokyo
依托单位国家：
日本
项目类别：
Grant-in-Aid for international Scientific Research
财政年份：
1990
资助国家：
日本
起止时间：
1990 至 1991
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-02044043/
关键词：
Human casualty Field survey 1976 Tangshan, China earthquake 1988 Armenia earthquake Fatality estimation model Fatality reduction strategy 死傷者予測モデル死傷者低減戦略死傷者問題

项目摘要

We carried out this two-year project to develop a decision support system for the regional safety strategies toward the reduction of earthquake casualties. We developed a universal model, which is applicable to disasters in any part of the world, for the estimation of deaths and injuries in an earthquake. In doing this, we conducted data gathering through a series of field survey and development of a computer model.We established a partnership with a research group in the University of Cambridge, United Kingdom to exchange knowledge and material needed for the development.In the first year, we carried out :1. General planning for the co-operative project : The principal investigator visited the University of Cambridge to develop a general framework for the co-operative research.2. Three field investigations : We visited China to collect the damage and reconstruction data of the 1976 Tangshan earthquake. Similar effort was done in the affected areas of the 1988 Armenia earthquake and th … More e 1983 Erzurm, Turkey earthquake.3. Development of general framework for the assessment model : We figured out occupants deaths in a collapsed building and their rescue process as a time related event and proposed it as a general framework of casualty assessment model.In the second year we carried out :1. Follow-up survey in China : we visited Tangshan to extend our knowledge and material. We gathered detailed data on the rescue activities in the Tangshan earthquake and the structural quality of existing buildings.2. Cooperative effort toward a building-damage model : A co-investigator of Japan side visited the Cambridge group for the development of a building-collapse model, which is to be an essential part of the entire model.3. Analysis of damage and recovery data : We continued to analyze the data on the 1976 Tangshan earthquake, the 1988 Armenia earthquake, and the 1983 Erzurm earthquake.4. Data gathering on earthquakes in Japan : We collected the damage and reconstruction data of destructive earthquakes in Japan. We included the 1945 Mikawa earthquake and the 1948 Fukui earthquake.5. Development of assessment models : We, first, developed two detailed frameworks for 1) a simple model applicable to post-event, rapid estimation and 2) a comprehensive model applicable to detailed evaluation of regional safety and the development of long-term strategy for the enhancement of regional safety. For the simple model, we completed a prototype and tested its performance accuracy. For the comprehensive model, we developed some element-model including ones for the description of : 1) building collapse, 2) deterioration of health status of trapped victims, and 3) rescue process. Less

我们进行了这项为期两年的项目，为减少地震伤亡的区域安全策略开发了决策支持系统。我们开发了一种通用模型，该模型适用于世界任何地方的灾难，用于估计地震中的死亡和伤害。为此，我们通过一系列的现场调查和计算机模型的开发进行了数据收集。我们与英国剑桥大学的一个研究小组建立了合作伙伴关系，以交换开发所需的知识和材料。第一年，我们进行了：1。合作项目的一般计划：首席研究员访问了剑桥大学，为合作研究开发了一般框架。2。三项现场调查：我们访问了中国，以收集1976年汤山（Tangshan）地震的损害和重建数据。在1988年亚美尼亚地震和TH的受影响地区也做了类似的努力。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。评估模型的一般框架的开发：我们确定了崩溃的建筑物中发生的死亡及其作为时间相关的事件的救援过程，并将其作为伤亡评估模型的一般框架。在我们执行的第二年中：1。中国的后续调查：我们访问了Tangshan，以扩展我们的知识和材料。我们收集了有关Tangshan地震中的救援活动以及现有建筑物的结构质量的详细数据。2。为建筑破坏模型的合作努力：日本方面的共同投资者访问了剑桥集团，以开发建筑崩溃模型，这将是整个模型的重要组成部分。3。损害和恢复数据的分析：我们继续分析1976年唐山地震，1988年亚美尼亚地震和1983年Erzurm地震的数据。4。关于日本地震的数据收集：我们收集了日本破坏性地震的损害和重建数据。我们包括1945年的Mikawa地震和1948年的福岛地震5。评估模型的开发：我们首先为1）适用于事后，快速估算的简单模型开发了两个详细框架，以及2）适用于详细评估区域安全的综合模型，以及为增强区域安全的长期策略的制定。对于简单模型，我们完成了原型并测试了其性能准确性。对于综合模型，我们开发了一些元素模型，其中包括以下描述：1）建筑物崩溃，2）被困违规行为的健康状况恶化； 3）救援过程。较少的