Non-surveying Construction of a 47 Interregional Input-Output Table and Calibration of SCGE Model

47个区域间投入产出表的非调查构建及SCGE模型的校正

基本信息

批准号：
15560458
负责人：
MIYAGI Toshihiko
金额：
$ 2.37万
依托单位：
Gifu University
依托单位国家：
日本
项目类别：
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
财政年份：
2003
资助国家：
日本
起止时间：
2003 至 2004
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/en/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-15560458/
关键词：
SCGE Model Inter-regional IO Analysis Applied General Equilibrium Analysis 47 Inter-regional IO Table in Japan Calibration Interregional Trade Coefficient Transportation Investment Chenery-Moses Model SAM CGE分析バランシングファクター法 SCGE分析

项目摘要

Main results of this research ate summarized as follows :1)Our approach for constructing interregional input-output table is regarded as a hybrid method in which initial trade coefficients estimated by the existing various social-economical data are successively adjusted to satisfy consistency conditions.2)Our non-surveying technique is based on a balancing-factor method, however, it differs from the conventional balancing-factor method in that our approach should solve linear equation systems for finding one of the balancing-factors.3)Convergence of the algorithm was successfully examined with usage of small size sample data of Japanese Inter-regional IO data. Application of the algorithm to 47-region data was successfully completed with less than one percentage errors between estimated and actual regional products ; however, for some sectors in several regions, the error exceeds more than ten percentages. Since the amounts of products in such sectors are relatively small, we can expe … More ct that those errors can be reduced by sector aggregation and do not have significant effects on further analysis as well.4)Constructed interregional input-out table consists of 45 sectors and 47 regions, of which elements account for as much as more than four hundred millions. For finding the Leontief inverse matrix, we have used GAUSS software package. Interdependence analysis is conducted using the 47-interregional table, and we have found interesting results about the economical iuterdependences among metropolitan areas and surrounding regions.5)We have proposed a new trade model which includes the concept of spatial advantage in terms of economic distance for distinct regions. Spatial advantage are measurable if one can use interregional IO data as the benchmark equilibrium, however, such data are rarely in use in the usual analysis. We have developed the dimension-reduction method in which three-dimensional parameters concerned with spatial advantage is transformed to two-dimensional parameters with assistance of exogenously given parameter on travel times between distinct regions. This method allows us to calibrate trade coefficients without interregional IO data.6)We have developed and examined several calibration procedures corresponding to the benchmark equilibrium data which are easily obtainable. The worst situation may be the case in which no data except the IO data for total region is available. Even in such a case, our approach can produce satisfactory results in constructing interregional IO estimates. If one can use a complete interregional IO date, the method can reproduce completely consistent estimates with given data by using transformation technique of Chenery-Moses model to Isard type.From these results, we can conclude that our approach provides a theoretically consistent and practically feasible SCGE model. Unfortunately, however, we could not implement SCGE analysis using the interregional IO data created in this research, mainly due to time limitation and the needs of solving a large scale of nonlinear equation systems. Since this is not an essential problem and merely a technical one, we are optimistic with respect to that. Less

总结这项研究的主要结果：1）我们构建区域间输入表的方法被认为是一种混合方法，在这种方法中，由现有的各种各种社会经济数据估计的初始贸易系数成功地调整了以满足一致性的状态。平衡因素之一。3）算法的收敛性通过使用日本区域间IO数据的小样本数据成功检查了。将算法应用于47个区域数据，成功完成了估计和实际区域产品之间的一个百分比错误；但是，对于一些地区的某些部门而言，错误超过十个百分比。由于此类领域中的产品量相对较小，因此我们可以花费更多的CT，这些错误可以通过扇形聚集减少，并且对进一步分析没有重大影响。4）构建的区域间输入式桌子由45个部门和47个区域组成，其中元素占多达400亿的元素。为了找到Leontief倒数矩阵，我们使用了高斯软件包。相互依赖分析是使用47个区域表进行的，我们发现了关于大都市地区和周边地区经济依赖性的有趣结果。5）我们提出了一个新的贸易模型，其中包括在不同地区的经济距离方面具有空间优势的概念。如果可以将区域间IO数据用作基准等效物，则可以测量空间优势，但是，在通常的分析中很少使用此类数据。我们已经开发了一种减少维度的方法，其中与空间优势有关的三维参数在不同区域之间的旅行时间上进行了外源给定参数的辅助参数转换为二维参数。这种方法使我们能够在没有区域IO数据的情况下校准贸易系数。6）我们已经开发并检查了几个与基准等效数据相对应的校准程序。最糟糕的情况是，除了总区域的IO数据外，没有数据。即使在这种情况下，我们的方法也可以产生满足感，从而构建区域间IO估计值。如果可以使用完整的区域间IO日期，则该方法可以通过使用Chenery-Moses模型的转换技术来重现给定数据的完全一致的估计。从这些结果中，我们可以包括我们的方法提供理论一致且实际上可行的SCGE模型。但是，不幸的是，我们无法使用本研究中创建的区域IO数据实施SCGE分析，这主要是由于时间限制和解决大规模的非线性方程系统的需求。由于这不是一个必不可少的问题，而只是一个技术问题，因此我们对此感到乐观。较少的