Non-surveying Construction of a 47 Interregional Input-Output Table and Calibration of SCGE Model

47个区域间投入产出表的非调查构建及SCGE模型的校正

基本信息

批准号：
15560458
负责人：
MIYAGI Toshihiko
金额：
$ 2.37万
依托单位：
Gifu University
依托单位国家：
日本
项目类别：
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
财政年份：
2003
资助国家：
日本
起止时间：
2003 至 2004
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/en/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-15560458/
关键词：
SCGE Model Inter-regional IO Analysis Applied General Equilibrium Analysis 47 Inter-regional IO Table in Japan Calibration Interregional Trade Coefficient Transportation Investment Chenery-Moses Model SAM CGE分析バランシングファクター法 SCGE分析

项目摘要

Main results of this research ate summarized as follows :1)Our approach for constructing interregional input-output table is regarded as a hybrid method in which initial trade coefficients estimated by the existing various social-economical data are successively adjusted to satisfy consistency conditions.2)Our non-surveying technique is based on a balancing-factor method, however, it differs from the conventional balancing-factor method in that our approach should solve linear equation systems for finding one of the balancing-factors.3)Convergence of the algorithm was successfully examined with usage of small size sample data of Japanese Inter-regional IO data. Application of the algorithm to 47-region data was successfully completed with less than one percentage errors between estimated and actual regional products ; however, for some sectors in several regions, the error exceeds more than ten percentages. Since the amounts of products in such sectors are relatively small, we can expe … More ct that those errors can be reduced by sector aggregation and do not have significant effects on further analysis as well.4)Constructed interregional input-out table consists of 45 sectors and 47 regions, of which elements account for as much as more than four hundred millions. For finding the Leontief inverse matrix, we have used GAUSS software package. Interdependence analysis is conducted using the 47-interregional table, and we have found interesting results about the economical iuterdependences among metropolitan areas and surrounding regions.5)We have proposed a new trade model which includes the concept of spatial advantage in terms of economic distance for distinct regions. Spatial advantage are measurable if one can use interregional IO data as the benchmark equilibrium, however, such data are rarely in use in the usual analysis. We have developed the dimension-reduction method in which three-dimensional parameters concerned with spatial advantage is transformed to two-dimensional parameters with assistance of exogenously given parameter on travel times between distinct regions. This method allows us to calibrate trade coefficients without interregional IO data.6)We have developed and examined several calibration procedures corresponding to the benchmark equilibrium data which are easily obtainable. The worst situation may be the case in which no data except the IO data for total region is available. Even in such a case, our approach can produce satisfactory results in constructing interregional IO estimates. If one can use a complete interregional IO date, the method can reproduce completely consistent estimates with given data by using transformation technique of Chenery-Moses model to Isard type.From these results, we can conclude that our approach provides a theoretically consistent and practically feasible SCGE model. Unfortunately, however, we could not implement SCGE analysis using the interregional IO data created in this research, mainly due to time limitation and the needs of solving a large scale of nonlinear equation systems. Since this is not an essential problem and merely a technical one, we are optimistic with respect to that. Less

这项研究的主要结果总结如下：1）我们构建区域间投入输出表的方法所示，如d，现有的各种跨工程学数据估计的初始贸易是成功符合符合符合意识的成功。2我们的非监管技术基于平衡因子方法，用于查找平衡因子之一的线性方程式。3）算法的收敛性通过日本区域io数据的样本数据成功地检查了算法。估计的估计和实际制品；由于这些秘密中的产品量相对小，我们可以探讨……错误可以通过部门聚集减少，并且在进一步的分析中也没有显着的由45个区域组成，其中的元素比四个用于查找LeOntiev逆矩阵的数百个区域，我们使用47个分区表进行了介绍软件软件包。周围地区。5AVE向新的贸易模型提供了空间优势的概念。在不同区域之间的旅行时间上，具有外源性的二维参数。6）我们已经开发并检查了对基准平衡数据的seversepands。对于总区域可用。实际上是可行的SCGE模型