Study of socio-economic phenomenon using decision process analysis

使用决策过程分析研究社会经济现象

• 批准号: 15530411
• 负责人: TAKEMURA Kazuhisa
• 金额: $ 2.3万
• 依托单位: Waseda University
• 依托单位国家: 日本
• 项目类别: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• 财政年份: 2003
• 资助国家: 日本
• 起止时间: 2003 至 2004
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/en/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-15530411/
• 关键词: decision making; decision process; socio-economics; risk perception; fuzzy data analysis; process tracing technique; judgment; image analysis; 社会経済現象; リスク; 消費者行動; 数理モデル; 計量モデル

The purpose of this study was to examine contingent judgment and decision making process in socio-economic environments using several psychological methods, and to make psychometric models, and mathematical models. Decision making process can be observed in our social lives and socio-economic phenomenon. People judge or make decisions in various situations in socio-economic settings. Investigation of their decision making process is considered to be effective for understanding socio-economic phenomenon.Utility theory is a representative system for explaining various decision making phenomena. It uses mathematical methods and is introduced frequently in consumer activity research in the field of political economy. Although utility theory can explain most decision making phenomena, it cannot completely explain contingent decision making due to problem description, decision procedure, and external task factors. For example, as Tversky and Kahneman illustrated, even if the completely same … More alternatives are formed in the same objective situation, the decision made may be different, depending on the way in which a mental representation is created.This study first explained why utility theory cannot completely explain contingent decision making. Secondly, new qualitative models of contingent decision making were proposed in this study, since utility theories (including such nonlinear utility theories as the rank-dependent utility theory) are often violated as pointed out above. Thirdly, we found basic types of social situations and contexts of judgment and decision-making using social survey research, interview methods, and theoretical analysis. Fourthly, we found qualitative and quantitative properties of contingent judgment and decision-making in social environments using several psychological experiments. Fifthly, we found qualitative properties of cognitive process in risk judgment and decision-making using process-tracing techniques in psychological experiments. Finally, based on the empirical findings through experiments and social survey, we made psychometric models using fuzzy set theory and mathematical models to describe contingent judgment and decision-making in socio-economic environments.These findings were reported at international and domestic academic meetings. Some of the findings were published in academic journals. Less

这项研究的目的是使用几种心理学方法检查社会经济环境中的偶然性法官和决策过程，并制作心理模型和数学模型。决策过程可以在我们的社会生活和社会经济现象中观察到。人们在社会经济环境中的各种情况下进行判断或做出决定。对他们的决策过程的调查被认为有效理解社会经济现象。耐性理论是解释各种决策现象的代表性系统。它使用数学方法，并经常在政治经济学领域的消费者活动研究中引入。尽管公用事业理论可以解释大多数决策现象，但由于问题描述，决策程序和外部任务因素，它无法完全解释偶然的决策。例如，正如Tversky和Kahneman所说的那样，即使完全相同……在同一客观情况下形成了更多替代方案，根据创建心理表征的方式，做出的决定可能会有所不同。这项研究首先解释了为什么效用理论无法完全解释偶然的决策。其次，在本研究中提出了新的定性决策模型，因为公用事业理论（包括等级依赖性效用理论等非线性效用理论）通常被上述指出。第三，我们发现了使用社会调查研究，访谈方法和理论分析的社会状况的基本类型以及判断和决策的背景。第四，我们发现了使用多个心理实验在社会环境中偶然性判断和决策的定性和定量特性。第五，我们在心理实验中使用过程追踪技术发现了认知过程在风险判断和决策中的定性特性。最后，根据实验和社会调查的经验发现，我们使用模糊集理论和数学模型制作了心理测量模型，以描述社会经济环境中的偶然性法官和决策。这些发现是在国际和国内学术会议上报告的。一些发现发表在学术期刊上。较少的

项目成果

不確実性の分類とリスク評価-理論枠組の提案

不确定性分类和风险评估——提出理论框架

• 发表时间: 2004
• 期刊: 社会技術研究論文集 2
• 作者: 竹村和久;吉川肇子;藤井 聡
• 通讯作者: 藤井 聡

Statistical image analysis of psychological projective drawings

心理投射图的统计图像分析

• 发表时间: 2005
• 期刊: Journal of Advanced Intelligent Computing and Intelligent Informatics (印刷中)
• 作者: Takemura;K.;Takasaki;I.;Iwamitsu;Y.
• 通讯作者: Y.

Kazuhisa Takemura: "Conclusion and Recommendation. In S.Murao, V.Maglambayan, & E.Bugnosen(Eds.), Risk communication"Lomdon : Mining Journal Books. 4 (2003)

Kazuhisa Takemura：“结论和建议。在 S.Murao、V.Maglambayan 中，

Development of mathematical model and data analysis method for advertising communication : By judgment and decision research for consumers

广告传播数学模型和数据分析方法的开发：通过消费者的判断和决策研究

• 发表时间: 2004
• 期刊: Advertising Science 45
• 作者: Takemura;K.;Wakayama;D.;Horiuchi;K.
• 通讯作者: K.

Taxonomy of uncertainty and risk evaluation.

不确定性分类和风险评估。

• 发表时间: 2004
• 期刊: Journal of Science and Technology for Society 2
• 作者: Takemura;K.;Kikkawa;K.;Fujii;S.
• 通讯作者: S.