Experimental study of contingent judgment and decision making and investigation for psychometric and mathematical model as well as the representation theorem.

偶然判断和决策的实验研究以及心理测量和数学模型以及表示定理的调查。

• 批准号: 11610067
• 负责人: TAKEMURA Kazuhisa
• 金额: $ 2.24万
• 依托单位: University of Tsukuba
• 依托单位国家: 日本
• 项目类别: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• 财政年份: 1999
• 资助国家: 日本
• 起止时间: 1999 至 2000
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-11610067/
• 关键词: judgment; decision making; experiment; mathematical model; psychometric model; representation theorem; 状況依存性; 心理計量; 心理実験; 評価

Contingency in judgment and decision-making is considered to be a phenomenon in which judgment and decision making are dependent with contexts, verbal phrases cues. The purpose of this study is to examine contingent judgment and decision making through several psychological experiments, and to make psychometric models, mathematical models, and representation theorems for the predictions of judgment and decision phenomena. First, we clarified basic types of situations and contexts of judgment and decision-making using social survey methods. Second, we found qualitative and quantitative properties of contingent judgment and decision-making through psychological experiments. Third, we found qualitative properties of cognitive process in contingent judgment and decision-making using process-tracing techniques in psychological experiments. Fourth, based on the empirical findings through experiments and social survey, we made psychometric models and mathematical models to describe contingent judgment and decision-making. Finally, we found representation theorems of some mathematical models. These findings have been reported at international and domestic academic meetings. Some of the findings have been published in academic journals and books.

判断力和决策的偶然性被认为是一种现象，在这种现象中，判断和决策取决于上下文，口头短语提示。这项研究的目的是通过多个心理实验检查偶然的判断和决策，并制作心理测量模型，数学模型和代表定理，以预测判断和决策现象。首先，我们使用社会调查方法阐明了判断和决策的基本情况和背景。其次，我们通过心理实验发现了偶然的判断和决策的定性和定量特性。第三，我们在心理实验中使用过程追踪技术发现了认知过程在偶然的判断和决策中的定性特性。第四，根据实验和社会调查的经验发现，我们制作了心理测量模型和数学模型来描述偶然的判断和决策。最后，我们发现了某些数学模型的表示定理。这些发现已在国际和国内学术会议上报道。一些发现已在学术期刊和书籍中发表。

项目成果

Nakamura, K.: "Threshold models for compatibility on finite sets."Journal of Mathematical Psychology. 44. 353-382 (2000)

Nakamura, K.：“有限集相容性的阈值模型。”数学心理学杂志。

竹村和久: "広告コミュニケーション効果の状況依存性とその説明"広告科学. 39. 163-169 (1999)

竹村和久：“广告传播效果的情境依赖性及其解释”《广告科学》39。163-169（1999）。

Michael Smithson,: "Human judgement under sample space igmorance"Risk, Decision and Policy. 5. 135-150 (2000)

迈克尔·史密森（Michael Smithson）：“样本空间无知下的人类判断”风险、决策和政策。

竹村和久: "広告コミュニケーション効果の状況依存性とその説明"広告科学. Vol.39. 163-169 (1999)

竹村和久：“广告传播效果的情境依赖性及其解释”《广告科学》第 39 卷。163-169（1999）。

Smithson, M.: "Human judgment under sample space Ignorance."Risk, Decision, & Policy. 5. 135-150 (2000)

Smithson, M.：“样本空间无知下的人类判断。”风险、决策、