EAR-Climate: Mountain Glacier Contribution to Sea Level CE 1900-2100

EAR-气候：山地冰川对海平面的贡献 CE 1900-2100

• 批准号: 2218664
• 负责人: Joerg Schaefer
• 金额: $ 270万
• 依托单位: Columbia University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2022
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2022-09-01 至 2026-08-31
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2218664&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: EAR; Climate; Mountain; Glacier; Contribution

The area and mass of glaciers in mountainous regions have been shrinking dramatically in recent decades, and this accelerating glacier retreat impacts alpine systems and downstream communities dramatically around the globe. These shrinking mountain glaciers may also contribute to sea-level rise, yet the predictions of this influence are much less quantified than those for the polar ice sheets. Reasons for this include: (i) the large number of mountain glaciers and their individual complexities; (ii) modern satellite observations of glacier volume change are mostly limited to the last 20 years, which is not long enough to calibrate glacier dynamic models; (iii) the limitations in computing power to model glacier change for thousands of alpine glaciers and their impacts on the solid-earth response. The goals of the current project are to provide accurate predictions of mountain glacier melt rates across the globe together with the contribution to sea-level rise on the global and local scale, and to evaluate the impacts of glacier change on societies. The latter will include an assessment of risk for communities impacted by changing glaciers together with adaptation strategies such as migration. A documentary film will be prepared that narrates the journey of the glacial meltwater from its birth at the icy peaks of the high Andes all the way to the Pacific Ocean, in turn documenting the impacts on communities from the glacier to the ocean. The film will illustrate the process of building models for improved predictions of downstream effects of changing climate and will be available to a wide audience on web-streaming platforms.The accelerating mass loss of glaciers around the globe is impacting societies and contributing significantly to ongoing and accelerating sea-level rise. Initial estimates predict that mountain glaciers, which are highly sensitive to warming climate, might contribute up to half a meter to sea-level rise, but the uncertainties of these predictions remain considerably higher than those for the polar ice-sheets. This project will integrate glacier observations over the last century, and include them in a global glacier-change time-series. This time series will be developed by artificial intelligence methods, glaciologic modeling through CE 2100, solid earth modeling of isostatic adjustment related to mountain glacier change, and societal impact science that identifies areas of highest societal and economic costs, together with first-order solution strategies. The research will quantify to what degree mountain glacier changes since the end of the Little Ice Age (about CE 1850) are reflected in sea-level rise, and how these environmental changes affect densely populated regions down-stream of glaciated areas and near-shore communities. To achieve this goal, the project will use cutting-edge methodology, from new observations to artificial-intelligence-based modeling to societal impact science tools, that would be widely applicable to other problems at the interface of Earth Science and society.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

近几十年来，山区地区的冰川面积和质量一直在急剧下降，这种加速的冰川静修会影响到全球各地的高山系统和下游社区。这些收缩的山地冰川也可能导致海平面上升，但是这种影响的预测量不如极地冰盖量化。原因包括：（i）大量的山地冰川及其个人复杂性； （ii）现代的冰川体积变化观测值大部分限于过去20年，这还不足以校准冰川动态模型； （iii）计算能力的局限性为数千种高山冰川建模冰川变化及其对固体地球响应的影响。当前项目的目标是为全球山冰川融化速率提供准确的预测，以及对全球和地方规模上海平面上升的贡献，并评估冰川变化对社会的影响。 后者将包括对改变冰川影响的社区的风险以及诸如移民等适应策略的影响。将准备一部纪录片，叙述冰川融化的旅程，从高高安第斯山脉的冰冷山峰一直到太平洋的冰冷山峰，进而记录了从冰川到海洋的社区的影响。 这部电影将说明建立模型的过程，以改善气候变化的下游影响的预测，并将在网络流的平台上向广泛的受众提供。在全球范围内加速冰川的质量损失正在影响社会，并为正在进行的和加速的海平面上升而做出重大贡献。最初的估计预测，对温暖气候高度敏感的山地冰川可能会导致高达半米的海平面上升，但是这些预测的不确定性仍然高于极地冰片。该项目将在上个世纪整合冰川观察结果，并将其包括在全球变化的时间序列中。 这个时间序列将通过人工智能方法，通过CE 2100进行冰川建模，与山地冰川变化相关的等静态调整的固体地球建模以及确定最高社会和经济成本的领域以及一阶解决方案策略的社会影响科学。这项研究将量化自冰河时代末期（大约1850年）以来的山地冰川变化在多大程度上反映在海平面上升中，以及这些环境变化如何影响人口稠密的地区冰川地区和近岸社区的下游。为了实现这一目标，该项目将使用最先进的方法论，从新的观察到基于人造的基于人造的建模再到社会影响科学工具，这些工具将广泛适用于地球科学与社会界面的其他问题。该奖项反映了NSF的法定任务，并被认为是通过基金会的知识优点和广泛的criteria crietia的评估来通过评估来进行评估。

项目成果

Quantifying Geodetic Mass Balance of the Northern and Southern Patagonian Icefields Since 1976

量化 1976 年以来巴塔哥尼亚北部和南部冰原的大地测量质量平衡

• DOI: 10.3389/feart.2022.813574
• 发表时间: 2022
• 期刊: Frontiers in Earth Science
• 影响因子: 2.9
• 作者: McDonnell, Morgan;Rupper, Summer;Forster, Richard
• 通讯作者: Forster, Richard