EAGER: Collaborative Research: Climate and Glacier change in Bhutan: the last millennia, present and future

EAGER：合作研究：不丹的气候和冰川变化：过去的千年、现在和未来

• 批准号: 1256540
• 负责人: Joerg Schaefer
• 金额: $ 8.28万
• 依托单位: Columbia University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2012
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2012-09-01 至 2013-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1256540&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: EAGER; Collaborative; Research; Climate; Glacier

Environmental Change in the Himalayas impacts societies in the most densely populated area on Earth. Rapid glacier retreat in the monsoonal Himalayas affects river discharge, energy production, and agriculture. A serious threat is posed by outburst floods from glacial lakes in the Himalayan country of Bhutan. Bhutan's welfare is directly linked to glacier dynamics because the country's primary source of income, exported hydropower, as well as the national agricultural irrigation infrastructure, are fueled by glacier melt. Melting glaciers and the steep relief have made outburst floods a prime hazard for Bhutan and their Himalayan neighbors, and the hazard potential depends on current and future glacier melt. Determining the rate of glacier retreat in response to climate change is fundamental for predicting future flood probabilities and for designing adaption and mitigation strategies for Bhutanese society. Currently the rate of glacier retreat is very poorly constrained. This EAGER proposal seeks funds to take the first step towards providing robust information about past, present and future glacier and climate change in Bhutan, and in turn contribute to a more robust scientific data for decision makers and mitigation strategists. The identified target area for this EAGER project is Rhapstreng Glacier, in the Lunana area of Bhutan. Over the last decade the PIs have established connections to the scientific and political leadership in Bhutan, in particular with the Department of Energy/Ministry of Economical Affairs and the Ugyen Wangchuck Institute for Conservation and Environment (UWICE), and have also identified excellent climate and environmental records: (i) Outstanding past glacier records, consisting of well-preserved moraine sequences; (ii) Conifer tree species which will allow the PIs to reconstruct climate, especially summer temperature, back through the Little Ice Age and into late-Medieval times; (iii) Bhutanese glaciers that are, according to preliminary mass balance modeling in the Himalaya, particularly sensitive to changes in temperature as compared to precipitation, making them excellent targets for more refined glaciological modeling, and making the tree-ring reconstructions particularly useful to the glacier reconstructions. The grant supports a concerted field campaign, including geomorphology, geochronology, paleothermometry, and glaciology in order to lay the foundation for reconstructing glacier histories and climate change over the last millennia, and to better predict Himalayan glacier change over the next centuries. The PIs have assembled a multidisciplinary team of experts with broad experience in Himalayan glacier and climate problems, including a female junior faculty at a primarily undergraduate university. This EAGER proposal is the first step towards a bilateral educational program, including bilateral student exchange between CU and UWICE and integration of Bhutanese students in annual field campaigns.

喜马拉雅山的环境变化影响人口最密集的地区的社会。季风喜马拉雅山脉的快速冰川静修会影响河流排放，能源生产和农业。喜马拉雅国家不丹国家的冰川湖爆发造成了严重的威胁。不丹的福利与冰川动态直接相关，因为该国的主要收入来源，出口水力发电以及国家农业灌溉基础设施是由冰川融化的。融化的冰川和陡峭的浮雕使爆发对不丹及其喜马拉雅邻居造成了主要危害，危险的潜力取决于当前和未来的冰川融化。确定响应气候变化的冰川撤退的速度对于预测未来的洪水概率以及为不丹社会设计适应和缓解策略的基础。目前，冰川撤退的速度受到限制很差。这项渴望的提案寻求资金迈出第一步，以提供有关不丹过去，现在和未来冰川和气候变化的强大信息，进而为决策者和缓解战略家提供了更强大的科学数据。 该急切项目的确定目标区域是不丹卢纳娜地区的Rhapstreng Glacier。在过去的十年中，PI与不丹的科学和政治领导建立了联系，尤其是与能源部/经济事务部和Ugyen Wangchuck保护与环境学院（UWICE）建立了联系，还确定了出色的气候和环境记录：（i）杰出的杰出冰川记录，包括良好的冰川记录，包括良好的莫纳因序列； （ii）针叶树物种将使PI可以重建气候，尤其是夏季温度，恢复到冰河时代，再到中期后期； （iii）根据喜马拉雅山脉的初步质量平衡建模，与降水相比，对温度变化尤其敏感的不丹冰川，使其成为更精致的冰川学建模的绝佳目标，并使树环重建特别对冰川重建特别有用。 该赠款支持一项协调一致的现场运动，包括地貌学，年代学，古热学和冰川学，以便为重建冰川历史和上一千年的气候变化奠定基础，并更好地预测下一个世纪的喜马拉雅冰川变化。 PI召集了一个在喜马拉雅冰川和气候问题方面具有广泛经验的专家团队，其中包括主要是本科大学的女少年教师。这项急切的建议是迈向双边教育计划的第一步，包括CU和UWICE之间的双边学生交流以及在年度野外运动中的不丹学生的整合。