How Will Post-Landfall Tropical Cyclone Intensity and Impacts Respond to Climate Change?

热带气旋登陆后的强度和影响将如何应对气候变化？

• 批准号: 2141467
• 负责人: Gary Lackmann
• 金额: $ 53.37万
• 依托单位: North Carolina State University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2022
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2022-03-01 至 2025-02-28
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2141467&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: How; Will; Post; Landfall; Tropical

Tropical cyclones (TCs) typically weaken when making landfall. Nevertheless, weakening TCs can exact damages, owing to persistent rainfall and sustained winds. Various factors influence the decay rate of post-landfall TCs. Local effects (like land-surface and soil characteristics and geographical location) are important. However, less-studied effects like TC interactions with the extratropical circulation during or after landfall are also important and could become more relevant in a warming climate. This proposal addresses how the post-landfall TC decay rate and its impacts may change in a warming climate, emphasizing on the varying decay rate resulting from changes in landfall location and its proximity to the jet stream. This emphasis builds directly on the investigator’s recent work suggesting a poleward shift in the extratropical transition of TC activity in the North Atlantic basin with climate warming due to the strengthening of the TC-jet stream interactions. The tasks include conducting idealized and real-data case studies in pseudo-global warming scenarios and analyzing observations as well as TC-resolving global model simulations. Leveraging a hierarchy of analyses and modeling strategies, the work will assess the shifts in TC activity and landfall location, the changes in precipitation and the extent of damaging winds, and the frequency and strength of interaction with mid-latitude jets. In collaboration with scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research and state agencies, the activities will train graduate and undergraduate students from underrepresented groups.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

登陆时，热带气旋（TCS）通常很弱。然而，由于持续的降雨和持续的风，削弱TC会严格损失。各种因素会影响陆地后TC的衰减率。局部影响（例如土地表面和土壤特征以及地理位置）很重要。然而，较少研究的效果（例如在登陆过程中或之后与诱因的TC相互作用）也很重要，并且该提案是否可以解决陆地后的TC衰减速率及其影响如何在变暖的气候中发生变化，这强调了由于登陆位置的变化及其与喷气流的距离所致。这种强调直接建立在研究者的最新工作上，这表明由于TC-JET流相互作用的加强，北大西洋盆地TC活性在北大西洋盆地的极端变化。这些任务包括在伪全球变暖方案中进行理想化和真实的案例研究，并分析了观察结果以及TC解决的全球模型模拟。利用分析和建模策略的层次结构，这项工作将评估TC活动和登陆位置的变化，降水的变化以及破坏性风的程度以及与中纬度喷气机的频率和相互作用的频率和强度。与国家大气研究与州机构的科学家合作，这些活动将培训来自代表性不足的小组的毕业生和本科生。该奖项反映了NSF的法定任务，并被认为是通过基金会的知识分子优点和更广泛影响的审查标准通过评估来获得的支持。