Collaborative Research: Generation of Rock Damage and Localization of Seismicity Before Large Earthquakes

合作研究：大地震前岩石损伤的产生与地震活动的定位

基本信息

批准号：
2122168
负责人：
Yehuda Ben-Zion
金额：
$ 27.58万
依托单位：
University of Southern California
依托单位国家：
美国
项目类别：
Standard Grant
财政年份：
2021
资助国家：
美国
起止时间：
2021-09-01 至 2024-08-31
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2122168&HistoricalAwards=false
关键词：
Collaborative Research Generation Rock Damage

项目摘要

How large earthquakes are generated, and how to forecast them, remain fundamental unsolved scientific questions. They have strong implications for human societies. Large earthquakes can result in loss of life, devastating destruction, and trigger additional hazards such as tsunamis, fires, and landslides. This project aims to improve the understanding of earthquake dynamics and ability to forecast large events. Its key aspect is to track the progressive localization of seismic deformation preceding the earthquake rupture. With this aim, the researchers combine novel statistical techniques with high-resolution earthquake catalogs from different tectonic environments. They account for data from fracturing experiments and physical modeling of deformation localization. The project also provides support and training for two graduate students. Its outcomes contribute to improve earthquake hazard assessment. The investigations work to develop a quantitative operational framework for tracking the preparation processes of large earthquakes. This is done by following the progressive evolution of deformation from distributed failures in a volume to localized shear zones culminating in generation of large earthquakes. The research considers deformation in entire volumes rather than on pre-existing faults or sets of faults. The analysis is associated with uniform regional analysis and interpretation of thousands of earthquake clusters on different space-time-energy scales, without retrospective selection of the analyzed zones. The project develops, tests, and implements an integrated multi-signal procedure synthesizing different seismic observations that may be used to estimate the approaching time of large earthquakes. The developed tools and results can have significant impact on understanding of seismicity and analysis of seismic hazard in active tectonic environments. The research can inform and impact additional observational, experimental, and theoretical studies on earthquake physics and seismic hazard.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

地震产生了多大的地震，以及如何预测它们，仍然是基本的未解决的科学问题。他们对人类社会具有强烈的影响。大地震会导致生命丧失，破坏破坏，并引发其他危害，例如海啸，火灾和滑坡。该项目旨在提高对地震动态的理解和预测大事件的能力。它的关键方面是跟踪地震破裂之前的地震变形的渐进定位。以此目的，研究人员将新颖的统计技术与来自不同构造环境的高分辨率地震目录相结合。他们说明了来自断裂实验的数据和变形定位的物理建模。该项目还为两名研究生提供支持和培训。它的结果有助于改善地震危险评估。调查旨在开发一个定量操作框架，以跟踪大地震的制备过程。这是通过遵循从体积中的分布式故障到局部剪切带的逐渐变形的渐进性演变来完成的。该研究考虑了整个卷的变形，而不是预先存在的故障或一组故障。该分析与不同时空能量尺度上的数千个地震簇的统一区域分析和解释有关，而无需回顾性选择分析区域。该项目开发，测试和实施了综合的多信号程序，综合了不同的地震观测值，这些观察值可用于估计大地震的接近时间。开发的工具和结果可能会对在主动构造环境中对地震性的理解和对地震危害的分析产生重大影响。这项研究可以为地震物理和地震危险提供详细的观察，实验和理论研究。该奖项反映了NSF的法定任务，并使用基金会的知识分子优点和更广泛的影响审查标准，被认为值得通过评估来支持。

项目成果

期刊论文数量（4）

专著数量（0）

科研奖励数量（0）

会议论文数量（0）

专利数量（0）

Question-Driven Ensembles of Flexible ETAS Models

灵活 ETAS 模型的问题驱动集成

DOI：
10.1785/0220220230
发表时间：
2023
期刊：
Seismological Research Letters
影响因子：
3.3
作者：
Mizrahi, Leila;Nandan, Shyam;Savran, William;Wiemer, Stefan;Ben-Zion, Yehuda
通讯作者：
Ben-Zion, Yehuda

A Synthesis of Fracture, Friction and Damage Processes in Earthquake Rupture Zones

地震破裂带断裂、摩擦和损伤过程的综合